I agree with you, but with Crosby/Malkin out of the line up he steps up and is moved up in a more offensive role, with both of them in the line up he stays in his shut down role... Not arguing that point.
So what I don't get is why would you bring out the point that he's posted a 66-point pace with "crappy" line mates, and with better line mates he could easily put up 70... then go out and say well he's never going to get quality wingers anyway. That's contradictory isn't it?
That's not according to the numbers from FrozenPool. When both are healthy Staal averaged 1:06 between Nov. 21 and Dec 5. then averaged 1:15 between Mar. 15 and Apr. 18. So when you say he was averaging 2 mins a game that's factually incorrect...
If you look back to 2008-09, the last time that all 3 played significant time together, he averaged 2:19 and picked up 49 points (6 on the PP) on the season.
So you're telling me that he can average 2 mins a game on the PP on the 2nd unit, with Neal and Kunitz (as opposed to Guerin and Sykora) as competition, and you confidently think that he can post 20 more points than he did from that season...
It doesn't have anything to do with age and his development, it's about opportunity. With Malkin and Crosby plus Neal and Kunitz, there isn't a lot of room for Staal to produce offensively, because that's not his role on the team... If Malkin or Crosby is out of the line up, that gives Staal the opportunity to produce offensively, which then you can argue that he has the potential for 70+ points. But with Crosby/Malkin both healthy, it would be very hard to argue that he's a 70+ point threat...
Another point on your 23 year olds "bust out" argument. Not all 23 years olds bust out, only the ones that are given the opportunity to actually bust out... Or else you'd see every 23-year old bust out, which isn't the case...
This is where I disagree with you, the problem is when you say he can post 70 points next season because he has the natural ability to do so, that doesn't mean squat...
If you look at the entire list of all of the players that tallied 70+ points this season.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...iewName=points
One thing that they all have in common is production on the PP. Every player that tallied 70 points this season had at least 20 PPP, with the exception of Eriksson (12 PPP)
You could probably even develop a general statement that unless a player spends significant amount of time on the PP, they will not be a 70 point player.
So when you go and say Staal certainly can tally 70 points and it doesn't matter about the PPP, so you're telling me that he's gonna tally 65+ ES points and only have 5+ PPP? There were only 2 players that tallied more than 60 ES points last season and their names were Malkin and Stamkos... So you're telling me that Staal doesn't need to get PPP and he can do it all by getting ES points?