Team situations - yes, for me.
A guy can... sometimes, get out from underneath that... but opportunity is HUGE.
With Carolina, just take a peak at their guys... top 7D are all UFA this summer or next.
So are Teuvo & Guentzel... Necas and Jarvis are going to be commanding ENORMOUS RFA contracts.
Best thing to do is to have a RFA-level player slot-in.
So that's Nikishkin.
And the KHL is a good league... a very, very dependable league... it's right there with AHL.
He'll score.
Mateychuk.
I mean... CHL numbers are good... but I don't
trust CHL numbers like I trust AHL/KHL numbers.
Moose Jaw (WHL) is pretty loaded too... with Firkus and Yager and now Savoie...
I mean... Jagger Firkus is putting up 126pts in 63gp... tells you a lot about how "easy" it is to score in the WHL these days.
Great league for the "plus"-skating smart & smaller guys right now.
The comparable is to think about guys like Luca Cagnoni... or Graham Sward... or Hudson Thornton...
Similar overagers putting up huge numbers.
https://www.quanthockey.com/whl/en/s...men-stats.html
So... IDK... maybe he'll be great.
But I really don't see him displacing Werenski.
That said... so long as Werenski is healthy...
With average & small-height ish defensemen...
They still have to be solid defenders against NHL-level opposing forwards to get NHL minutes.
Case-in-point is a guy like Calen Addison.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...php?pid=191479
All signs of his WHL career suggested he was going to be future PP1 D-man for MIN... or then PIT... or then & now... SJ.
He even put up good scoring numbers in the AHL.
But even San Jose - if one really gets in there - they are leaning towards Henry Thrun & Shakir Mukh as their future D1/D2... much, much, MUCH moreso than Addison.
(In fact, I think Addison's days in the NHL are numbered... but that's another convo... 5 even-strength assists in 56gp... yeesh...)
But you do want to know, for sure, that a D-man can defend at the NHL level.
ELITE skaters - like a Quinn Hughes - seem to have made good transitions with average-size.
But if the guy doesn't have a rep as an ELITE skater... I'd rather have a bit more size to them.
To my knowledge Mateychk is good-to-great skater (some people use "plus")...
But I haven't ever read ELITE.
Some reading from when he was drafted.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/sport...an/7723051001/
Players can improve their skating...
But ELITE never usually develops late.
It's usually there from early CHL (ie age16)
For non-elite skating defensemen... I'll take the size (ex. Seider, Harley, Nikishin)... it still matters in the NHL.
Long way of saying - Nikishin, even with slightly less offensive upside - I still think is a "surer" bet than Mateychuk.
I'd rather have a 90% shot at 50+pt D-man (Nikishin) than a 50% shot at a 60+ pt D-man (Mateychuk)
That said - some leagues do require you to "hit on upside" to win.
If that's your league (which we don't know)... then you may want to stay with Mateychuk.