Re: Ekman-Larsson
I think the difference in understanding here is that while OEL's perceived value might be too high right now, it also seems that you're implying his actual value will never increase from where it is now. With his talent and current situation, I'm not sure how you can make this claim.
Originally Posted by
RizzeeDizzee
See my response I just posted. And your statements above are just not correct. I parsed the data for all teams - good, bad, great, and all in between - and NO ONE was able to be productive in the situation OEL is in. The numbers don't lie. Potential and skill are great, but only can go so far. Look at how Ovi floundered for nearly two seasons when he was not able to play in a system where he could exploit his talents.
I simply cannot get over how many people are drinking the OEL kool-aid. Talk to guys who owned Suter 5 years ago and ask them how optimistic they were and how they wish they'd embraced reality instead.
This is what I'm interested in, and it would be great if you could elaborate. What exactly is the method you used to extrapolate the conclusion you used in this sentence? There are two problems I see with this statement.
1) I don't know what kind of data you're referencing, because it doesn't seem to exist.
Are you saying that there's publicly available data that describes how Karlsson, Subban, Weber, etc. would play in Arizona, and that it would be no different than what OEL is doing right now? Conversely, is there data that says OEL can't produce more playing in Ottawa, Montreal, Nashville (if he were to be substituted with said defenders)?
I'm unaware of any such data; even if those numbers somehow existed, I'm not sure what kind of statistical model exists that could possibly allow one to make those kind of assertions. The only way to reliably (sort of) say so would be if all those players played a season on each others' teams.
2) The situation that OEL is in is not static. It's fluid.
Why would a different team not matter, given the same usage? PPs don't become more or less effective? Even strength TOI can't represent more or less production? Better teams can't control possession and consistently force offensive zone starts? Linemates don't matter?!
My point is that I understand that OEL's perceived value is too high right now given his usage and his production with that usage; but it's also that OEL has the elite talent to potentially take advantage of a better team, even with the same usage. Those other team factors matter, and there is no data in the world that can predict that OEL will never increase his production given a different situation.
Thus, the reason why there's optimism when it comes to OEL is because 1) he's talented, and 2) Arizona looks like it's going to get better as a whole soon. Couple years type of soon.
12 team keeper
Points only: G-1, A-1, W-2, SO-3; weekly rosters: 7F, 5D, 2G; keep 20 of 25
F: Tavares, McDavid, RNH, Stepan, Okposo, Brassard, Stone, Scheifele, Zibanejad, Ehlers, Larkin, Lindholm, Namestnikov
D: OEL, Hamilton, Mo. Rielly, Parayko, Gostisbehere, Trouba, Theodore
G: Price, Dubnyk, Lehner, Hellebuyck, Greiss
2014-15 Champ