second I post my thoughts on Bozak on pace to set career highs
Tyler Bozak
Why Bozak is a legit top 6 forward, and a top line center with the right chemistry. (I.e. Kessel) His numbers are without a doubt helped by having Kessel who is one of the most prolific scorers in today’s NHL on his wing, but his high hockey IQ is undeniable, along with his deceptive shot, and good passing ability. His board play is alright helping keep the play alive while driving ok possession -10.4 CorRel. He has 11 PPP so far this season, playing with Kessel, and JVR 81% of the time. He spends 74% EV-TOI with Kessel, and JVR. Great company if I’d say so myself.
5v5 Individual Stats (460 TOI): 6 Goals, 11 Assists, 17 Points, 39 Shots, 102.1 PDO, 1.43Pts/60, 9.48 on Ice Sh%, 497 Total FO, 44.2 FF%.
5V4 Individual Stats (102 TOI): 7 Goals, 4 Assists, 11 Points, 24 Shots, 105.8 PDO, 4.67Pts/60, 15.32 on ice Sh%, 85.1 FF%.
Toronto score on a whopping 85% of their FF whilst on the PP with Bozak on ice which at first it seems exaggerated but by digging a little further into it you notice his previous seasons are much the same. From 84.6% 13-14 and 85.0% 12-13 so we can expect status quo for that stat, but what this shows is the fact that when he is on the ice they have a successful powerplay. (Unlikely to be demoted from top PP) Now remember he plays with Kessel and JVR both very good at creating on the Powerplay, and 9 of his 11 PPP have come with those two so that does help his numbers.
So I took a look at his 5v5 on ice sh% which is somewhat low but not by any means alarming sitting at 9.48%. 1021 PDO is solid, and indicates he is quite average in terms of “puck luck”. So question is how can he increase his points, with little chance his puck luck changes drastically, short answer is shoot more, his 2.26 Shots per game is not quite good enough, but it still has allowed him to roll along at a 0.80 Point per game pace. What this data shows fantasy owners is that you should continue getting much of the same from Bozak, it helps he gets the bulk of important draws if your league counts face off wins but not so good if you think about it in terms of zone start advantages/disadvantages. Off Zone start % is 42.5 and if the coach pushed that number closer to 50 he would see an increase in 5v5 goals Bozak will struggle to hit 50 Off Zone start % because of the fact he is a CorRel -10.40 which leads to bad possession numbers (bad possession teams tend to take more DZ starts.
I think Bozak has the skill and opportunity to get to 70 points this season, and set career highs.