How many games do you look back to evaluate whether or not to add or drop a player.

[everfeb]

Hi guys. Sorry don't know how to title this thread.

What I'm wondering is, if you have a few players who aren't performing...how many Games do you look back to compare them?
Their last 5 games, 8 games, 10 games, 15 games, the season to date? I've always had a hard time trying to figure this out.

For example, in last 8 GP...Burns has .375 ppg. Klingberg has .75. Chabot has .25
Is 8 games enough to say...."Goodbye Chabot".

Points only, G-1/A-1. For ROS. Burns has 21 games left, Klingberg 23 and Chabot 20.

If anyone understands what I'm getting at here I would really appreciate hearing your thoughts on this.

Thanks for any replies.

[pmorrow]

For Dmen the leash is a lot longer. The leash varies based on pedigree, upside, alternative options and so on.

Chabot at .25 for 8 games is not nearly enough for me to drop him in most circumstances. If that stretches for 15+ games then maybe I would consider it, although I think the leash with a top Dman like him would be longer as long as his season averages are still acceptable. That said, in your circumstance Klingberg is a quality enough option and not a flash in the pan so I dont see why you couldnt make that move.

[PenguinHunter]

I wish there was just a set formula that would be the perfect amount.

As pmorrow mentioned there are so many factors that have to be considered that just picking a certain number of games is not the catch-all.

For example - if a D-man with a low profiile goes 5 games without performing I would drop him.

But a higher profile player like Chabot - I would want to see limited production for 10-14 games.

But it also depends on the profile of the player being considered as the replacement.

[hockeyrobot]

Everything comes into play in these decisions. From league settings to current roster to free agent pool to what place you're in. Every situation is different.

If I'm competing in a yearly league then there is usually less waiting around.

But that's why it's always good to throw a post up here and include your league specifics.

[everfeb]

Below are our Pool Rules. It's a yearly NON DRAFT pool with several features.

One feature is we can't have any of these players on our roster.
FORWARDS: aho, barkov, crosby, draisatl, eichel, huberdeau, kane p, kucherov, mackinnon, matthews, mcjesus, panarin, pastrnak, petterson, rantanen, scheifele, stamkos. DEFENCE: carlson j, dahlin, hamilton, hedman, hughes q, josi, karlsson e , krug, makar, reilly m.
And we can have JUST ONE of these guys on our team: connor, gaudreau, malkin, ovy, point, stone, tavares, tkachuk m, wheeler, zibanejad.

We are to have 19 F, 4D and 2 Rooks on our Roster. In my case I currently have 5 D-Men and want to drop one the Chabot or Burns. I'm going to keep Klingberg. I can replace my drop with any forward in the NHL who is not on the above lists. So I can replace which ever D I drop with a forward such as Pacioretty, Perron, R. Strome, Buchnevich, Landeskog, Necas, Palat, E. Kane, etc. Any of these guys SHOULD outscore the D-Man I drop ROS.

I'm currently 1st of 15 teams but the top 5 are very close and I could be 5th by end of week.

Here are some PPG numbers for Chabot and Burns.

Burns.....season- .53/ last 20- .55/ last 15- .47/ last 8- .375/ Games left- 22. His production is declining no?
Chabot...season- .64/ last 20- .70/ last 15- .73/ last 8- .25/ Games left-20. He was doing good but recent production has fallen off a cliff. Scary.

Who would you drop, Burns or Chabot. Thanks for your help so far guys.

EDIT....forgot to mention, we are allowed just 6 non-injury related "moves" per year and this would be my 5th.

[Bubba55]

Bottom line is there is no easy way to do this. There is no magic formula, it's roll up your sleeves and figure it out. As just about everyone has already said, there are a multitude of factors that need to be taken into consideration. It's not easy. The guys who have success in fantasy hockey have acquired a significant amount of knowledge over the years, and yes that helps sure helps, but making the right moves at the right time is simply hard work, putting in the time, doing your research, bring your knowledge to bear, and make your move. And ya, your hoping you made the right move.

[YzermansLegacy]

As others have mentioned there's no perfect formula here... so trust your gut and do your best.

One consideration (that I suppose could be contrarian to the popular opinion) is that when I "look back" on a player - specifically one with a stronger pedigree (but also for those whose advanced stats are screaming for positive regression), the LONGER they've been cold the MORE likely I am to roster them (looking for that positive regression).

This is obviously highly player and situation specific - but GMs who play with me regularly know I'm a lot more interested in the "cold" guy than I am in the "hot" guy in most trades or FA adds.

And for the record - there's no perfect formula for that one either... sometimes you just have to "play" remembering it's just a fantasy game.

[newfcollins]

I don't look at just one timeline, I'll usually look at two or three, especially this year. So I'll usually look at the season, last seven days and last 14 days (and sometimes 30 days) for a player I'm interested in. That way, you get a sense of whether it's just a bad week that is dropping them.

But you also need to keep an eye on the reasons behind the drops in production. Maybe their team has only averaged two power-play opportunities per game for the last eight games when they usually average four. Maybe the top superstar forward on their team is injured, so the team is having more trouble scoring. Maybe they've played six of their last games against the Avs and the Knights, the two stingiest teams in the league when it comes to goals allowed. Maybe the team is scoring when he's on the ice, but he's simply not getting points on the goals. Maybe he's battling an injury we don't know about, or is having personal issues at home.

There are plenty of reasons why someone's performance might drop over 10 games or so. But there's no easy way to tell if you should drop or pick them up. You just need to go with your gut or look at other stats. Burns' shot rate has dropped drastically this season, for example. That might be a sign.

[everfeb]

Thanks very much for all the thoughtful replies. Really appreciate.

Sooo, I've decided to drop Chabot and add Landeskog.
I know eh, dropping a cold guy for a hot one. Oh well, we will hope for the best and see what happens.

The Landy addition is also strategic. As I said above, this is a NON DRAFT POOL...so several teams can have the same player. I'm still
in 1st but 2nd to 6th place teams all have Landy on their rosters. I've effectively neutered his production. He can't hurt me any more and the way I
look at it...each point more that Landy gets than Chabot is a bonus for me.

Thanks very much for the great advice you guys have offered up. Really appreciate you taking the time.