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Thread: When to Reach for Askarov

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    Default When to Reach for Askarov

    I have the 4th and 6th picks in an upcoming dynasty league draft. Because my goaltending shakes out to Hutton, Talbot, Merzlikens, Nedeljkovic, Brossoit, Hogberg (gross, I know), I'm tempted to reach for Askarov with my second first rounder. I need people to tell me how bad of an idea that is...
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Askarov won't be the solution for your G problems - at least not short term. Still I think it's worth reaching a bit for him as he could turn out to be the most valueable player of his draft class in 3 to 5 years or so.

    This said, if you want to invest in a G, he's probably as good a bet as there are and no6 looks to be the ideal place to pick him imo. Fantasy GMs won't let the skaters with the highest upsides slip because fwds are more certain to pan out and the waiting time is shorter.

    So I'm confident that Lafreničre, Byfield, Stützle and Rossi will be gone before anyone really considers to draft Askarov. Most likely this is also true for Holtz, Perfetti and Raymond, which would make it 7 skaters. So if you want to be on the safe side, picking Askarov at no6 looks just about right to me.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    The simple answer is never. Don't reach for players in a draft. If they're within the value range, it's not a reach. If it is a reach, you should be able to trade down.
    Second point before actually getting into an answer, the wait time on Askarov is probably at least three years, and more likely 5. So the fact you have a weak set of goalies right now should have a less than zero impact on your draft plans.

    I think the earliest I would be looking to draft Askarov is 9th. So if you are absolutely set intaking Askarov, trade down to 9th for the 6th pick, and make sure you get something sweet as a plus. Like a prospect that is just on the cusp of the NHL.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    I would say the year 2023 would be the correct time to acquire Askarov. I would not be wasting a draft pick him unless it's after pick 20 or so. There is no point picking a guy who won't help your team for at least 3 seasons.

    You have 2 goalies who were the best goalie on their team (Merzlikins + Talbot) and two solid backups (Hutton + Hogberg) in a 14 team league. I don't think your goaltending is as bad as you think it is.

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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    I pretty much second what EB says.

    If you really need goalie help today, trade your picks for goalies already in the NHL. You get some pretty dumb people at draft time who make silly trades just so they can enjoy the excitement of making a draft pick.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    The simple answer is never. Don't reach for players in a draft. If they're within the value range, it's not a reach. If it is a reach, you should be able to trade down.
    Second point before actually getting into an answer, the wait time on Askarov is probably at least three years, and more likely 5. So the fact you have a weak set of goalies right now should have a less than zero impact on your draft plans.

    I think the earliest I would be looking to draft Askarov is 9th. So if you are absolutely set intaking Askarov, trade down to 9th for the 6th pick, and make sure you get something sweet as a plus. Like a prospect that is just on the cusp of the NHL.
    If Askarov is drafted around 10, I have no problem with someone taking him at 6. I wouldn't for the reasons EB stated but there is a good chance if you trade down to 9, someone takes him beforehand. I know in my league Knight went top 10 last year to a knowledgeable owner. All it takes is one owner who listened to one draft analyst who is high on Askarov.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    I'm going to disagree with most here, but only with the understanding of goalie values in your league. In my h2h 14 team dynasty, goalies are worth their weight in gold. We have an 8-5 split player to goalie categories and a deep farm (30 players - to the 25 player main roster).

    In saying that, an example would be

    Shesterkin being traded for 1st ov (lottery - no lower than 3rd ov) + Spencer Knight + Pavel Francouz

    Sorokin being traded for J. Hughes and Max Domi

    Connor and Jarry for Rantanen and Hischier

    My reason in saying this is that if you draft Askarov with the 6th overall and your league has someone that values young goaltending as extremely as everyone in my league.. you can take him and move him for a large package and get some established goaltending along with it.

    If gatwnding doesn't hold the same value.. take the forward.

    It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Someone wrote that you want Askarov in 2023.. cool, but will it cost you way more than the 6th ov pick at that point?! If so, buy now and sit on him while his value increases exponentially.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post
    It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Someone wrote that you want Askarov in 2023.. cool, but will it cost you way more than the 6th ov pick at that point?! If so, buy now and sit on him while his value increases exponentially.
    I get where you're coming from here, but I'm going to disagree with the point.

    By 2023 if I draft one of the forwards, he's on my team and contributing, helping make my team more of a contender, and I have cycled through a few solid goalies since then, buying low and selling high. Meanwhile on your team, Askarov may or may not be panning out, and if he is in the NHL, he's probably only starting 25-30 games a season while adapting to the NHL.
    I don't want to be waiting more than three years for my top pick in any draft. That's not a recipe for winning fantasy championships. It's more likely to get you into a consistent bubble position, or rebuilding forever.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post
    I'm going to disagree with most here, but only with the understanding of goalie values in your league. In my h2h 14 team dynasty, goalies are worth their weight in gold. We have an 8-5 split player to goalie categories and a deep farm (30 players - to the 25 player main roster).

    In saying that, an example would be

    Shesterkin being traded for 1st ov (lottery - no lower than 3rd ov) + Spencer Knight + Pavel Francouz

    Sorokin being traded for J. Hughes and Max Domi

    Connor and Jarry for Rantanen and Hischier

    My reason in saying this is that if you draft Askarov with the 6th overall and your league has someone that values young goaltending as extremely as everyone in my league.. you can take him and move him for a large package and get some established goaltending along with it.

    If gatwnding doesn't hold the same value.. take the forward.

    It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Someone wrote that you want Askarov in 2023.. cool, but will it cost you way more than the 6th ov pick at that point?! If so, buy now and sit on him while his value increases exponentially.
    While I understand how valuable goalies are they are also extremely volatile. Askarov has a higher bust potential than one of the top 6 forwards. Plus, an aware owner can pick up goalies off the waiver wire after they develop. In my 10-team 60 man roster teams I have picked up Shesterkin, Blackwood, Talbot, Kaapo Kahkonen, Hugo Alnefelt, Daniil Tarasov, and Ivan Prosvetov off the waiver wire when they were free agents. Just traded for Annunen too while his value is still low. Obviously, most of those prospects will not pan out but if a couple do then I am set. I just feel more confident that the getting Perfetti or Raymond or Holtz at #6 will result in a solid player. It's a risk/reward, wait time decision for me. But I definitely don't fault a fella for drafting Askarov at 6.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post
    I'm going to disagree with most here, but only with the understanding of goalie values in your league. In my h2h 14 team dynasty, goalies are worth their weight in gold. We have an 8-5 split player to goalie categories and a deep farm (30 players - to the 25 player main roster).

    In saying that, an example would be

    Shesterkin being traded for 1st ov (lottery - no lower than 3rd ov) + Spencer Knight + Pavel Francouz

    Sorokin being traded for J. Hughes and Max Domi

    Connor and Jarry for Rantanen and Hischier

    My reason in saying this is that if you draft Askarov with the 6th overall and your league has someone that values young goaltending as extremely as everyone in my league.. you can take him and move him for a large package and get some established goaltending along with it.

    If gatwnding doesn't hold the same value.. take the forward.

    It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Someone wrote that you want Askarov in 2023.. cool, but will it cost you way more than the 6th ov pick at that point?! If so, buy now and sit on him while his value increases exponentially.
    He could take the Carter Hart, Vasilevskiy, Price route and play by 20-21.. I know it doesn't happen often, but be has the pedigree currently to be talked about in the same conversation as those guys, so the possibility is there. Especially if he ends up in say Chicago where there is a clear path to the net in the much shorter term.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I get where you're coming from here, but I'm going to disagree with the point.

    By 2023 if I draft one of the forwards, he's on my team and contributing, helping make my team more of a contender, and I have cycled through a few solid goalies since then, buying low and selling high. Meanwhile on your team, Askarov may or may not be panning out, and if he is in the NHL, he's probably only starting 25-30 games a season while adapting to the NHL.
    I don't want to be waiting more than three years for my top pick in any draft. That's not a recipe for winning fantasy championships. It's more likely to get you into a consistent bubble position, or rebuilding forever.
    I did say that it's league dependent. The best FA goalie in my league is Keith Kinkaid... all prospects down the depth chart are taken. So trading, or grabbing those European signings quickly once you hear they sign are the only way to get them if not drafting.

    If you have to pay Hughes (1st ov) + Domi + Andreas Johnsson for Sorokin before he's ever played a game.. that right there explains the perspective I have in my one dynasty.

    In my keep 10, I can get tons of goalies off the WW without issue. So I was simply giving the perspective from an insanely deep dynasty.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    He has 2 picks in top six, take a stud with ur first then Askarov with ur 2nd pick. The hardest thing to pry off another GM is a top goalie. Sure maybe u get lucky and beat everyone to the punch for a Binnington off the wire or take the G now and stash him. Imo goalies in every league I'm in r gold.

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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Given your situation, I'd be okay with taking him at 6, especially if he ends up somewhere with a pretty clear shot at starting soon, and he goes early enough in the draft. However, he's a multi-year wait, and you need to find goalies sooner than that, so he's just part of the solution.

    I have a guy I want to ask you about, though: Alexei Melnichuk. Is he on a roster anywhere? He is a guy I'd see if you can snag late if possible. If not, he would be a priority FA add, if he's undraftable in your league.

    By the way, that goaltending looks to be about the quality I had when I took over my current multi-cat dynasty in mid-2018, but you have more depth. I finished first in the regular season this past year, and I was churning through any goalie with a NHL pulse, but we have huge rosters, and the best goalie based on NHL performance on waivers at the end of the year was Garret Sparks, followed by Dave Ayres - the emergency goalie who got a win for Carolina, and that's the whole list.
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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post

    Shesterkin being traded for 1st ov (lottery - no lower than 3rd ov) + Spencer Knight + Pavel Francouz

    Sorokin being traded for J. Hughes and Max Domi

    Connor and Jarry for Rantanen and Hischier
    What is wrong with your league?

    These trades are terrible. Francouz is worth more that Shesterkin on his own yet a guy also gave up a top 3 draft pick and the best goalie prospect in the world to get him. That trade would have been vetoed in my league because it wrecks the competitive balance of the league.

    Ilya Sorokin for the the 2019 first overall pick and Max Domi. Sorokin does not even have an NHL contract. Sorokin was arbuably not even the best goalie on his KHL team in any of the past 3 seasons. (Lars Johansson had better GAA and SV% in most of the years).

    If I was in a league like this, I would only be drafting goalies. Well either that or I would be looking for a league with GMs who had a clue what they were doing.

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    Default Re: When to Reach for Askarov

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post
    He could take the Carter Hart, Vasilevskiy, Price route and play by 20-21.. I know it doesn't happen often, but be has the pedigree currently to be talked about in the same conversation as those guys, so the possibility is there. Especially if he ends up in say Chicago where there is a clear path to the net in the much shorter term.
    This is very doubtful as his KHL contract runs until the end of the 2021/22 KHL season. That means he can't sign in North America until May 1st, 2022.

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