Draft Mindset

[One Man Wolf Pack]

If you are willing to pay the small fee, FantasyHockeyGeek offers a great service that can help pinpoint player value numerically and thus you can tier that way. They also allow you to input Dobber's projections for the season and have other tools that are useful during your draft. Definitely worth checking out.

It's worth mentioning that FantasyHockeyGeek is affiliated with Dobber and I work for Dobber so I am biased but I have also paid for the service prior to working for Dobber and it is fantastic. I used it even in a year where I wasn't competing in any money leagues so I was strictly using it because they offer great tools. Can't recommend it highly enough. Of course, everything they offer you can technically do yourself, it's just convenient having it all at your fingertips without any leg work. At least peruse the site and see if the different tools they offer might help you. If I recall correctly some are offered for free.

metal, i already plugged you guys as an outside, unbiased source....you're welcome!

[leaftodd]

Knowing your goalie will make of break you in a pool.

Look at the cat's a goalie influences and how many play vs the cats of the player and how many play.

I won my head to head last year with Lundqvist as my first overall pick. I took him over Crosby crew as we had the standard 10 cats and 4 of them were goalies. 2 good goalies won me 4 cats a week. After than all i needed was 1 to tie and 1 to win every week.

All the advice on BPA and take goal scorers is wonderful. But in the end there's only 1 piece of advice to be given.

Know everything about how your pool works. Then draft to that knowledge.

[leaftodd]

Here's the one drawback to FHG. And let me be clear. I'm a user too. But that's its problem. Its data everyone who can type can get.

Knowing the system is better for you than reading FHG's lists. And doing both is even better.

[kiddchr]

Great advice on the FHG. I been playing around on it and very impressed.

One idea that I had is to try and determine how much of each category one needs to draft. Has anyone seen or put together data like this before? I know it will be relevant to each league and settings, but it would be nice to know for example roughly how many STP or hits do you need to win each category each week.

[LawMan]

Great advice on the FHG. I been playing around on it and very impressed.

One idea that I had is to try and determine how much of each category one needs to draft. Has anyone seen or put together data like this before? I know it will be relevant to each league and settings, but it would be nice to know for example roughly how many STP or hits do you need to win each category each week.

This is the first thing I consider when building my "goal team" and preparing for the draft. I review the stats from my league over the last 3 seasons and determine what it took to finish 3rd in each category. The reason I picked 3rd is because I found it impossible to build a team that came first in every category but 3rd is reasonably workable, if you're 3rd best in every category each week you should win every head-to-head matchup. I then come up with a list of "team goals" something like: G-327, A-551, PIMs- 884, etc.

I load these numbers into the top of a spreadsheet page, then once I draft a player I add his projections into pre-set positional spots. The spreadsheet calculates:

team goal - player projections = remaining requirement

so after each pick I can start to see the holes in my lineup, I also have a category of "% left" making it easy to determine what's more important being short 190 hits or 12 ppp.

i.e. for Goals it would start at 327, I draft Stamkos in the first round projected to score 55 now I need 272 more goals.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Not to be a plug-machine or anything, but what LawMan just described is what the Draft Guru tool over at FHG are designed to do. So, you know, you don't have to build it from scratch.

[LawMan]

Not to be a plug-machine or anything, but what LawMan just described is what the Draft Guru tool over at FHG are designed to do. So, you know, you don't have to build it from scratch.

First of all big fan of fantasyhockey geek, I take all of my stats from their projections (which add numbers for PPP, SHP, GWG which Dobber doesn't). 3 reasons I don't use the draft guru for my live draft:

1. We often have sketchy or no internet connection (not FHG's fault obviously).
2. Our league has SHP which skews certain players incredibly high. Just about any player anticipated to score 5 SHP is in the top 20 which is not too far of the mark if you can be assured of that projection but even dropping it to 3 SHP kills his value. Also, these guys are typically valued by other GMs as 10th rounders so their is no reason to take one so high.
3. FHG has to estimate what it anticipates is required in each category, I have the luxury of reviewing previous years and inserting more exact numbers.

[sharpp87]

What would be your best advice for only points ?????

just follow the dobber list ??

[davidgoodburn]

What would be your best advice for only points ?????

just follow the dobber list ??

Dobber's list is a good reference guide, probaby the best around. he has a lot of hits on his projected breakouts and isnt afraid to make bold predictions.

He had his biases as we all do so don't use the list as gospel. For example he loves small skilled players. he can overestimate rookies as well, for example based on history I'd be amazed if Mackinnon was good enough to crack 60 points this year let alone 70.

[Pengwin7]

Dobber's list is a good reference guide, probaby the best around. he has a lot of hits on his projected breakouts and isnt afraid to make bold predictions.

He had his biases as we all do so don't use the list as gospel. For example he loves small skilled players. he can overestimate rookies as well, for example based on history I'd be amazed if Mackinnon was good enough to crack 60 points this year let alone 70.

^Agree, LOL.
I'd take 10pts off any Dobber rookie predictions.
I'd take 10-15pts off any Dobber predictions for unproven players shorter than 5'-10".

LOL.
Other than that, the Dobber predictions are very, very, very good!!!

[mbudz4]

What about drafting Eastern vs. Weatern players?

ie. drafting two Centers from East, say Crosby (I'm 3rd pick) and Stepan, and then another two from the West, say Getzlaf (I can choose as keeper) and Benn, so you have a possibilty of maximizing starts because of different time zones/day of week games are played?

Thoughts?

[LawMan]

What about drafting Eastern vs. Weatern players?

ie. drafting two Centers from East, say Crosby (I'm 3rd pick) and Stepan, and then another two from the West, say Getzlaf (I can choose as keeper) and Benn, so you have a possibilty of maximizing starts because of different time zones/day of week games are played?

Thoughts?

First of all don't overthink it, early on pay your attention to best player available. Second at 3rd if you get Crosby you have swindled your entire league. 3rd I don't know of any leagues where timezones can be used to maximize your starts.

Maximizing GP by day of the week can give you a small edge. There is a great article in the Dobber Guide about which teams play the most "off-night" games (Mon/Wed/Sun) if 2 players are very close you may choose between them based on that. Also Mr. McGoo has a tool that helps you pick combos to maximize games played as does leftwinglock.com

[suvojitde]

Not to be a plug-machine or anything, but what LawMan just described is what the Draft Guru tool over at FHG are designed to do. So, you know, you don't have to build it from scratch.

Question for you - How does FHG site handle the ESPN H2H match-up leagues where you win a cat each week, if your total for that week is higher / better than your opponent. Let me explain with an example:

Assume Cats are G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, ATOI, PPP; Wins, S%, GAA

If I have more Goals, Assists, +/-, PIM, ATOI but he has more SOG, S% and GAA, and we tie on PPP and Goalie wins for the week, I win the matchup 5-3-2.

My apologies if I missed / could not see that type of a layout when setting up my leagues on your website. Thanks for the help in advance.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Strictly speaking, no -- we don't break Dobber's projections down into 1-week chunks.

However, if you look at the overall targets for each category used in the Draft Guru, those give a typical spread over a full season... so if you're proportionally balanced across the whole season, then you should be similarly balanced across a single matchup. Of course, there's a lot of statistical noise that can happen across one matchup (hey there Sam Gagner and your 8-point game!)...

That type of league scoring would be category totals, same as in a roto league.

[suvojitde]

Strictly speaking, no -- we don't break Dobber's projections down into 1-week chunks.

However, if you look at the overall targets for each category used in the Draft Guru, those give a typical spread over a full season... so if you're proportionally balanced across the whole season, then you should be similarly balanced across a single matchup. Of course, there's a lot of statistical noise that can happen across one matchup (hey there Sam Gagner and your 8-point game!)...

That type of league scoring would be category totals, same as in a roto league.

Wasn't looking for a weekly break-out, was just trying to understand "What Style of scoring to use" for my league from the drop-down. Based on your response, sounds like "H2H Roto" is the right option to choose. Correct?