Draft Mindset

[kiddchr]

Hey I wanted to get a conversation going with everyone's mindset going into a draft. I realize a draft is fluid and one's strategy can change quickly. But I thought it could be interesting to hear different strategies. Do you target the best available players? Certain player types during different stages?

Thanks! Hope to get some good feedback and advice.

[Shake]

1) Draft to win.
2) Stick to your original draft plan, don't change plans mid-draft
3) Draft to your league settings, not in general.
4) Watch how teams draft , pay attention
5) Don't get caught up in a " run" and start to " panic draft"

[rataylor22]

Agree with Shakedown. Personally the way I feel is:

Always take BPA: Worry about positions later.

Wait on goalies, unless you have a lot of goalie cats. There are 3 or 4 elite goalies and then a lot of midrange goalies.

When comparing 2 similar players, then take position in to consideration.

If you aren't drafting Karlsson, Subban, Letang, wait on D. High end forwards win more lague than high end D.

[LawMan]

1) Draft to win.
2) Stick to your original draft plan, don't change plans mid-draft
3) Draft to your league settings, not in general.
4) Watch how teams draft , pay attention
5) Don't get caught up in a " run" and start to " panic draft"

These are all good advice. For me, I write a "draft script" which gives a round by round breakdown of what I'm looking to draft. The early rounds are fairly rigid while the later rounds are necessarily more fluid.

The first 10 rounds look something like this:
Round 1. Take the top goal scorer available. Like Shakedown says draft to your league, in my league goalies are less important and goal scorers are more important so my only goal is to get the top goal scorer left.
Round 2. Take the top goal scorer available. Same as above.
Round 3. Take the top point getter. Here I've established some goals but points still rule so I want a bunch of those.
Rounds 4-6. Goalie/Fill-the-hole player. Here's where it gets a little bit fluid. I have my goalies ranked #1-30, if 8 are gone I draft the top one available if goalies haven't moved I let it slide one more round. If I don't take a goalie I review my projections thus far, every player drafted is entered into a spreadsheet with my needs (based on last year) - drafted players projections showing my biggest gaps. Often I'm short on PIMs/HITs as my first 3 rounds they get ignored if there is a big gap then I'll draft the top "all-rounder" available to get some balance, if I'm not lacking I go top point getter again.
Rounds 7-10. Generally speaking I'm going to grab the top projected point producer each round but may sacrifice a few points for a guy with amazing peripherals. After each pick I'm reviewing projections for major weaknesses in my lineup. Also after 16 or so goalies go I consider making my second goalie selection.

You'll notice I've only drafted Forwards and Goalies, no D. In my league we draft 12-13F each and 4 D I firmly believe that Forwards win by producing points. I'll usually split my D into 2-point producers and 2 thugs (Pims/Hits) If I see a D-man I really like fall I'll grab him otherwise I'm focused mainly on forwards, the Thugs are available in the 16+ rounds easily.

My final piece of advice is practice! Run whatever strategy you have through a few mock drafts on yahoo or espn or whatever. I practice my drafting every year for 3 reasons:
1- it allows me to see if my draft script is in the realm, I can compare the team I end up with to the team I have on my draft script.
2- it gets me back in the flow of draft spend and drafting under pressure, sounds dorky but the years I run mock drafts I’m much more able to follow the actual draft and make smart picks when on the clock. Nothing worse than being on the clock with everyone heckling you and then saying a name whose already been picked!
3- It gives me an idea of where guys are generally valued, after seeing a guy go in the 12th round over and over I can assume he’ll go 11-13 in my draft, if I think he’s worth an 8th I can safely wait until the 10th and get killer value.

[davidgoodburn]

Agree with what's been said.

I like to create draft tiers and use those as a guide. It is a bit of thought as you have to tier according to positional scarcity and league settings. I also prioritize goals over assists. Easier to get Assists on the wire or late.

While I agree with rataylor that you can wait a bit on goalies, you also need to make sure you get two solid options.

When drafting D, I tend to wait and make sure that my D are contriubtors in peripheral categories, not just points. There are a ton of 30-35 point Dmen so try to pick those that will give you a boost elsewhere or at the very least arent below average anywhere (for example Cam Fowler is 30-35 points but doesn't contribute in PIMS and is a killer for +/-, avoid him for a lesser name D that contributes in those categories.

[Pengwin7]

My steps for winning leagues:

1. Establish goalie value.
CRITICAL. Depending on league size (# teams) and categories, goalies can have high or low value, relative to skaters. Knowing when to pick a goalie is the most critical thing with draft strategy.
In 16-team, start 2G leagues, goalies will go in 50% of the picks of the first four rounds. Here, there are 32 goalies needed and only 30 #1 NHL goalies. Thus, scarce.
In 14-team, start 2G leagues, goalies will go in about 40% of the picks of the first four rounds.
In 12-team, start 2G leagues, goalies will go in about 30% of the picks of the first four founds.
In 10-team, start 2G leagues, goalies may only go in 20-25% of the picks of the first four rounds.

2. Defensemen
i) If the league has PIM/Blocks/Hits, draft defensemen late to stockpile these categories because a D can contribute just as well as a forward. Since forwards score more than D, use F for scoring, D for grit.
ii) If the league is scoring (points-only, or lacking Blocks/Hits) then you consider drafting D earlier if the ratio of D:F is 2:3 or higher.
i.e. In 6F/4D, defensemen have considerable value.
i.e. In 9F/6D, defensemen have considerable value.
In 9F/4D and 12F/6D formats, I typically may only draft 1D early and fill the rest at end.

3. Fill the rarer categories first, don't be afraid to punt one category in H2H multi-cat.
Powerplay points (PPP) is the hardest statistic to stockpile. These are not available among waiver wire players. I often like to draft goal scorers, because they also provide SOG and sometimes PIM. Assist-machines can often be overrated in H2H, losing one category (A) every week isn't a big worry.

4. Best (relative) player available
Best player available (BPA) works if somebody understands that, in fantasy hockey, you need to take the best player available relative to their own position.

Example: Say you & a friend create a 2-team league where you each have to draft 1C/1LW/1RW/1D.

He selects first... and takes Crosby (110pts-C).

[You could select Malkin (105pts-C). But you also know that Malkin will still be there at very end of draft in this format.]

You select Ovechkin (90pts-RW) and E.Karlsson (70pts-D).
He selects Kessel (82pts-RW) and PK Subban (60pts-D).

You select T.Hall (82pts-LW) and Malkin (105pts-C).
He selects (D.Sedin 78pts-LW)

Better team???
Him: Crosby (110pts), Kessel (82pts), D.Sedin (78pts), Subban (60pts): 330pts.
You: Malkin (105pts), Ovechkin (90pts), Hall (85pts), Karlsson (70pts): 350pts.

So, this example has somebody drafting Crosby 1st... but then your team drafts every other position's elite player first, knowing that you can get a very good center late.

5. Research League Settings: Every League is Different
Even with everything mentioned above... every league is different. You have to know your leaguemates drafting tendencies and what is valued in the league. If the league has PIM and nobody drafts PIM goons, you may only need to draft one to win that category weekly. If everybody is drafting 3 PIM goons, you could either draft 3 as well... draft 4 to win... or punt the category (draft zero PIM goons) and use those three roster spots to win other categories.

Good luck.

[als_revenge]

Agree with Shakedown. Personally the way I feel is:

Always take BPA: Worry about positions later.

Wait on goalies, unless you have a lot of goalie cats. There are 3 or 4 elite goalies and then a lot of midrange goalies.

When comparing 2 similar players, then take position in to consideration.

If you aren't drafting Karlsson, Subban, Letang, wait on D. High end forwards win more lague than high end D.

The 1st point (BPA) and the last point (wait on D) almost seems like a contradiction. Or on the first poin, were you talking about taking the BPA among forwards?

[als_revenge]

My steps for winning leagues:

4. Best (relative) player available
Best player available (BPA) works if somebody understands that, in fantasy hockey, you need to take the best player available relative to their own position.

Question: when you evaluate 'best' player available relative to their own position in a keeper league, how much weight do you give to just next year's production versus upside & age? Especially in the very early picks? Or is that impossible to answer, in general terms?

EDIT: Sorry, I just noticed this is posted in the 1-year League forum. I retract my question!

[rataylor22]

The 1st point (BPA) and the last point (wait on D) almost seems like a contradiction. Or on the first poin, were you talking about taking the BPA among forwards?

Arguments can be made that Kronwall is a better fantasy player than say someone like Moulson. I'd rather take Moulson and wait on someone like JJ than take Kronwall and choose a lesser forward.

[metaldude26]

Lots of good stuff in here particularly like what has been said about figuring out the value of goalies. They are completely different beasts - almost in another world from every other player on your roster. You need to know how important they are to your success before you hit the draft table so you can decide where to draft them.

The only thing I'd add to pile on here is to make tiers rather than simple lists. This comes special importance when considering different positions and especially goalies. This way you can assess when exactly you need to make positionally motivated picks rather than simply going with the best player available approach. BPA can only take you so far since you eventually have to fill out your roster. Knowing when you have to make a move or risk getting shut out of a higher tier at a need position (be it goaltending or defense or any other) is critical.

[Pengwin7]

The only thing I'd add to pile on here is to make tiers rather than simple lists. This comes special importance when considering different positions and especially goalies. This way you can assess when exactly you need to make positionally motivated picks rather than simply going with the best player available approach. BPA can only take you so far since you eventually have to fill out your roster. Knowing when you have to make a move or risk getting shut out of a higher tier at a need position (be it goaltending or defense or any other) is critical.

^This is very super valuable advice. Excellent note! [REP]

Sometimes you want to jump on a guy early because he may be the last in his tier. Example, say these players are remaining:

Center
80,78,77,76,75,75,74,74

Left Wings
.................75,73............................ .62,61,60,60,59

Right Wings
......77,76,75,75,73,73,71,68


If your pick is coming up... you may consider snagging a LW.
It may not be the highest scoring player... but if you miss out on the 75 or 73 guy... you'll be stuck taking a 62 or less player.

Great note about TIER-ing!!!

[kiddchr]

Thanks for all of the great advice and feedback. Definitely will help in my pre-draft prep.

I do have one follow up question concerning tiers. How do you go about making your tiers? In particular, how do you factor in players that are stronger in peripherals?

[Pengwin7]

re: Tiers
I usually enter just Yahoo! leagues.
Yahoo! sets their own O-Rank (their predictions rank) at the start of a new fantasy hockey season. It reflects G/A/+-/PIM/PPP/SOG.
Knowing this, I'll sort by rank and if one player or two players are ranked significantly higher than the next grouping of players... you could call that a TIER.

For example:
Defenseman might have O-Rank of:

16 Karlsson
31 Subban
36 Letang
44 Weber
50 Byfuglien
53 Chara
78 Suter
81 Phaneuf
...
Here, you might consider Karlsson to be in Tier I-A, then the next five through Chara to be in Tier I, then Suter starts Tier II. You are basically tiering defensemen by "rank" and saying to yourself "I want to grab a defenseman before Chara goes... because then it is a significant drop to Suter". That's a non-statistical way to do it.

Also, HITS is not included in Yahoo!s computational "Rank Formula".
Knowing this, if there are two players with a very close "RANK", I'll take the one with more HITS because I know that's NOT factored into their "RANK" (or score/value).

I don't know how other fantasy websites do rankings... so I don't know if the other categories are included.

-Good luck

[One Man Wolf Pack]

re: Tiers
I usually enter just Yahoo! leagues.
Yahoo! sets their own O-Rank (their predictions rank) at the start of a new fantasy hockey season. It reflects G/A/+-/PIM/PPP/SOG.
Knowing this, I'll sort by rank and if one player or two players are ranked significantly higher than the next grouping of players... you could call that a TIER.

For example:
Defenseman might have O-Rank of:

16 Karlsson
31 Subban
36 Letang
44 Weber
50 Byfuglien
53 Chara
78 Suter
81 Phaneuf
...
Here, you might consider Karlsson to be in Tier I-A, then the next five through Chara to be in Tier I, then Suter starts Tier II. You are basically tiering defensemen by "rank" and saying to yourself "I want to grab a defenseman before Chara goes... because then it is a significant drop to Suter". That's a non-statistical way to do it.

Also, HITS is not included in Yahoo!s computational "Rank Formula".
Knowing this, if there are two players with a very close "RANK", I'll take the one with more HITS because I know that's NOT factored into their "RANK" (or score/value).

I don't know how other fantasy websites do rankings... so I don't know if the other categories are included.

-Good luck

Kind of along this line....and to give Dobber & Fantasy Hockey Geek some additional business, I highly recommend subscribing to FHG's site. The customizable ranking tool that allows you to figure out players values based on your league's scoring system (if you are in such a league) is awesome. I use it almost exlcusively to set up my draft strategy. Hasn't steered me wrong. Not only can I use projections to predict players overall value, I can also determine those players that are ranked higher based on my scoring but may be undervalued by other owners in my league. Knowing this, you can wait on those guys until later rounds and really score in your draft.

[metaldude26]

Thanks for all of the great advice and feedback. Definitely will help in my pre-draft prep.

I do have one follow up question concerning tiers. How do you go about making your tiers? In particular, how do you factor in players that are stronger in peripherals?

If you are willing to pay the small fee, FantasyHockeyGeek offers a great service that can help pinpoint player value numerically and thus you can tier that way. They also allow you to input Dobber's projections for the season and have other tools that are useful during your draft. Definitely worth checking out.

It's worth mentioning that FantasyHockeyGeek is affiliated with Dobber and I work for Dobber so I am biased but I have also paid for the service prior to working for Dobber and it is fantastic. I used it even in a year where I wasn't competing in any money leagues so I was strictly using it because they offer great tools. Can't recommend it highly enough. Of course, everything they offer you can technically do yourself, it's just convenient having it all at your fingertips without any leg work. At least peruse the site and see if the different tools they offer might help you. If I recall correctly some are offered for free.