Dyanasty/Salary Draft Advice Sought

[Pengwin7]

Interesting. Keep us updated on the draft picks.
I want to know how fast people are buying the PhillyBryz kool-aid.
I'll guess he gets picked in the next 3.

[snacks]

Just wanted to thank everyone for their input and to give a quick update... the official 2011 "Make It Rain" Goalie Run is officially underway ha ha ha. Take a look, you WILL NOT believe your eyes. And all but 1 of these are seasoned owners:

Round 1
Pick #1: Philadelphia - Alexander Ovechkin (WAS-LW)
Pick #2: Tarrytown - Steven Stamkos (TB-C)
Pick #3: Arizona - Sidney Crosby (PIT-C)
Pick #4: Akron - Evgeni Malkin (PIT-C)
Pick #5: Michigan - Daniel Sedin (VAN-LW)
Pick #6: Prague - Corey Perry (ANH-RW)
Pick #7: Kansas City - Carey Price (MON-G)
Pick #10: Denver (ME) - Henrik Lundqvist (NYR-G)
Pick #11: Toronto - Martin St. Louis (TB-RW)
Pick #12: Albuquerque - Roberto Luongo (VAN-G)
Round 2
Pick #1: Albuquerque- Pekka Rinne (NAS-G)
Pick #2: Toronto- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit-G)
Pick #3: Denver- Ryan Miller (Buff-G)
Pick #4: Boston- Patrick Kane (CHI-RW)
Pick #5: Boston (via Denton)- Jonathan Quick (LAK-G)
Pick #6: Kansas City- Cam Ward (CAR-G)
Pick #7: Prague- Eric Staal (CAR-C)
Pick #8: Michigan- Jimmy Howard (DET-G)
Pick #9: Akron-
Pick #10: Arizona-
Pick #11: Tarrytown-
Pick #12: Philadelphia-

Jimmy Howard a 2nd round pick... who would have thunk it? Bryz is still there as well. I don't pick until 10 in round 3, 14 picks from now, but KNOWING that Arizona and Philly will take a Goalie and most likely Tarrytown and Akron will take one, that's only 10 skaters off the board before I go, so I should have a decent shot at some good guys. Parise, Kovy, Carter, Kesler, Ryan, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Backstrom... if I can get 1 in the 3rd, then in the 4th I can MAYBE take another or a top D. The question is, since this is dynasty, when do I take Cotoure? Round 5? Will he still be around, is that too early? And then try for Lucic, Brown, Callahan in 6 and 7...? That's my strategy right now. Go for SOG, GOALS, HITS, PIM.... and hopefully PPP.

PS: I've been trying like heck to trade a 6 and 9 for a 3rd rounder but no takers.

[asv27]

Well all I can say is wow - Fluery went first, so I followed popular consensus and went for value:
Round 2:
Pick #1: Albuquerque- Pekka Rinne (NAS-G)
Pick #2: Toronto- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit-G)
Pick #3: Denver- Ryan Miller (Buff-G)

I was gonna suggest MAF if Miller went before you. He's young, on a great team and seems to have figured things out in terms of GAA and S% he's also cheaper than most starters, which will help.

Anyway, Miller was the right choice. You'll see the rest of the starters gone before your next pick so there's a great chance of getting a good forward.

Also, don't fall in love with names, everyone loves to get that top scorer but Hits and PIMs are just as valuable as goals and assists.

I'm in a league that values hits and PIMs as wel and here are som guys that IMO are worth a look (in no particular order):

Backes C, 31G, 31A, +32, 93PIM, 213H - Munti-cats STUD
Dubinsky C,LW, 24G, 30A, 100PIM, 141H - solid in a bunch of cats
Ott C,LW, 12G, 20A, -9, 183PIM, 252H - Cheap and huge PIMs and hits
Clifford LW, 7G, 7A, -10, 141PIM, 138H - Rookie so expect points to increase, looking like the next Cooke
Callahan RW, 23G, 25A, -7, 46PIM, 224H - Big hits with ~50 point production
Brouwer RW, 17G, 19A, -2 38PIM, 262H - Cheap w/ but hits
Cooke LW 12G, 18A, +14, 129PIM, 192H - Pretty good points from a 3rd liner plus high PIMs and Hits
Downie RW, 10G, 22A, +8, 171PIM, 94H - In only 57 games Munti-cat stud
Hartnell LW, 24G, 25A +14, 142PIM, 168H - Munti-cat stud

[snacks]

First thanks to everyone who's offered up advice - I heeded most and am feeling good. Now I've got a key pick. First, I traded my 4th and 9th round picks for a third and grabbed Parise who was still around. Here's what's gone down so far:

Pick #1: Philadelphia - Alexander Ovechkin (WAS-LW)
Pick #2: Tarrytown - Steven Stamkos (TB-C)
Pick #3: Arizona - Sidney Crosby (PIT-C)
Pick #4: Akron - Evgeni Malkin (PIT-C)
Pick #5: Michigan - Daniel Sedin (VAN-LW)
Pick #6: Prague - Corey Perry (ANH-RW)
Pick #7: Kansas City - Carey Price (MON-G)
Pick #10: Denver (ME) - Henrik Lundqvist (NYR-G)
Pick #11: Toronto - Martin St. Louis (TB-RW)
Pick #12: Albuquerque - Roberto Luongo (VAN-G)
Round 2
Pick #1: Albuquerque- Pekka Rinne (NAS-G)
Pick #2: Toronto- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit-G)
Pick #3: Denver- Ryan Miller (Buff-G)
Pick #4: Boston- Patrick Kane (CHI-RW)
Pick #5: Boston (via Denton)- Jonathan Quick (LAK-G)
Pick #6: Kansas City- Cam Ward (CAR-G)
Pick #7: Prague- Eric Staal (CAR-C)
Pick #8: Michigan- Jimmy Howard (DET-G)
Pick #9: Toronto (via Akron)- Ilya Bryzgalov (PHO-G) (traded to philly, tim)
Pick #10: Arizona- Corey Crawford (CHI-G)
Pick #11: Tarrytown- Ryan Getzlaf (ANA-C)
Pick #12: Philadelphia- Ryan Kesler (VAN-C)
Round 3
Pick #1: Philadelphia - Dustin Byfuglien (EDM-D)
Pick #2: Tarrytown - Bobby Ryan (ANA-LW)
Pick #3: Prague (via AZ) - Jaroslav Halak (STL-G)
Pick #4: Denver (via Akron) - Zach Parise (NJD-LW)
Pick #5: Michigan - Pavel Datsyuk (DET-C)
Pick #6: Prague - John Tavares (NYI-C)
Pick #7: Kansas City - Mike Green (WAS-D)
Pick #8: Denton - Jeff Carter (Phi-C)
Pick #9: Kansas City (via BOS) - Drew Doughty (LAK-D)
Pick #10: Denver-
Pick #11: Toronto -
Pick #12: Albuquerque -

So I'm now going to be selecting my 4th player, (and have no 4th round pick), but I've got:
Lundqvist, Miller & Parise. Thank God I got those early goalies - what a run.

I'm considering the following - Obviously I need Skaters, but do I go forward or take one of the top Defensemen? I'm going for SOG'S, HITS, PIMS AND +/_ - hopefully PPP's and Goals as opposed to Assists and Total Points. Guys I'm looking at are, if I go D:
Weber
Letang
Chara
& If I go forward
Kovalchuk (yes he's still on the board, but I have Parise and Kovalchuck may not give me enough in "my" categories
Lucic
Backes
Backstrom
and guys I would love to have Backes, Brown, Kane and Stewart AND Couture.

Now I don't have another pick until the 5th round, so I need to make this one count. I fear that it's too early to take Couture, Stewart, Kane, Benn, Brown... and the young guys, but this is Dynasty, we can sign players to contracts for up to 5 years. Backstrom slipped last year, but could be good value here, but for my stats the obvious guys are Lucic and Backes. That being said, any of those 3 D guys would be great for me.

Advice please. In a perfect world I would take Couture or Stewart, as I think they are both real stars, but I need stats.

Thanks Snacks.

[Pengwin7]

Wow - what a goalie run! It must be a good feeling to not have to worry about your goalies.
Crawford in the 2nd round... crazy!

And best of all - Parise slipped to you for your 3rd round pick!
What a start!!!

In my 8-category defenseman analysis:
#1 Byfuglien. Score = 5.85.
#12 Doughty. Score = 4.25.
(Green was injured and his value won't reflect well)
(There are 10 defensemen in between and 2-3 are great sleepers, so you can get them later)

Grab a top-tier forward here (let me think):

[snacks]

I agree, I'd like to wait a little on D...

I'd really like to jump on Couture or Chris Stewart, so much upside, but it's soooo early. Couture is already hitting people, taking shots, getting some penalties, but Lucic fits my needs nicely as does Backes.

So many names, including the oft overlooked Kovy.

[Pengwin7]

RW Dustin Brown. My pick.

Why:
He is THE premier hitter in the NHL (by quantity).
Top 3 in Hits in each of the last 3 NHL seasons.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...tssPlayerStats
Gives you 250 SOG per season.
Consistent 55-60pt player and top line & PP1 with LA.

In my forward player ranker, he finished 13th (score = 5.58, ahead of Henrik Sedin).
If he happens to give you more Points & PPP, his score would go higher.
He actually had only 2 GWG... which kept his score low. He scored a 5.6 in goals and typically a player's GWG value = Goal value.

David Backes is also a consideration... but I think he may slip to the 5th round (if your leaguemates aren't reading this!)

[snacks]

I like Brown alot, but thought that he would slip to the 5th or 6th... also, not that it really matters yet, he's an LW.

So you say take Brown or Backes (throwing out Lucic) over a guy like Couture or even Chris Stewart?

[bballplyr321]

I think that at this point in time, you still want to stick with wings. Kovy might not fit your multi-cat structure but how many players are going to score more than Kovy? Throw out last season. You have to. He is infinitely better than the way that he played last year. Think about it. If he had scored 45-50 goals with 85-90 points and 275+ shots, would he even still be on the board? You can get PIM and hits later on in the draft. Draft Cranker late and you just took care of both those cats. Kovy is an obvious pick here for me. Without a doubt in my mind. Besides, LW is the hardest position to fill. You have OV, Sedin, Parise, Ryan, Kovy, Marleau and maybe Hall? Oooooo, Hall. Hmmm

If you do not pick Kovy, then make sure you get a wing. Stewart had inflated numbers last season (his shot% reflects that) and with the trade to StL, he is going to see his PIM and his hits drop. Backes would be a decent pick but he is not going to get you the value that Kovy will. Brown would be an awesome selection.

So I am now thinking more about this. Maybe Hall would not be a bad pick. I forget how your salary cap is set up. If it is current NHL salaries, draft Hall, if not and you have to determine the number that you sign players for, I would draft Kovy.

[bballplyr321]

WAIT!!!! I just realized that Niemi was still on the board. You already have 2 stud goalies. If you take a third, you will be a god among men and can name your price for a goalie and still have two guys left. Someone will have to give up a VERY valuable asset when they realize that they cannot win with no goalie. It always happens. Last year, I was able to trade Thomas for Heatley and Carter because I had Luongo and Rinne as well. I would take Niemi RIGHT NOW!!!!

[snacks]

Ha! That is so funny you say Niemi. That was my original thought. Take him and then as we get closer to the start of the season trade him away. I've got a history of doing that in other leagues/sports,.... hmmm....

[Pengwin7]

If this is a H2H league, and you do daily starts... its actually not a ridiculous idea to take a third goalie. Especially a West Coast goalie who will have a schedule that is going to be a bit staggered from East Coast teams. (There was a goalie planner last year. I remember Anaheim had the most "different" game nights of all the 30 teams).

Tomas Vokoun is also an excellent consideration.
He has posted a .919 SV% or better in six straight seasons (only goalie that can claim that!)

Is this a H2H league?
And I never asked but... is it "salary" league like it says in the thread title?

[snacks]

Yes, this is an H2H league. And our salaries are going to be based on Yahoo O Ranks (as soon as they come out). It's a sliding scale - however there are minimums for extended contracts. (5 years being the longest we can sign a player for)

Are starting Rosters are 3 C/ 3 RW / 3 LW/ 6 D / 2 G.... with 9 bench players. Also, we have a 3 start minimum for goalie stats per week. (which is pretty low I think)

Brown, Niemi, Backes... and yet no Couture.

[Buck Fush]

If I'm not mistaken you play 6D, so I would take Weber or Letang here as they are both absolute beasts in this format. I do prefer Letang to Weber long term as I believe he has higher upside and a better situation, but I couldn't fault anyone for taking Weber over him. PLEASE do yourself a favour and take one of those two, with 72 dmen being needed just for active rosters, the pickings at defense will get very thin..

[Pengwin7]

Actually Buck Fush has a good point.

My forward rankings right now go from a score of about 6.00 (best available) to 3.80 (forward #108, that's 9 per team).

My defensive rankings right now go from a score of about 5.30 (best available) to 2.70 (defenseman #72, that's 6 per team).

The real key to doing a draft is to nab a player before the "drops" in talent.
Defenseman drop from a score of 5.30 to 4.30 over the first 10 players.
Forwards drop from a score of 6.00 to 5.00 over the next 15-20 players.

I have Letang & Chara as 5.30 scores.
Shea Weber at 5.00 score.

Letang is a nice pick since he played so much of his season without Sid & Geno.
Letang/Chara/Weber would be a very nice pick at this spot... if you feel like a D.
Lucic/Backes/Iginla/Brown are the top across-the-board forwards available.

I think you'll have to go with your gut on this one!