Dyanasty/Salary Draft Advice Sought

[snacks]

I totally get what you're saying Pengwin, It makes sense. I'm sure I can get Lundy at 15.... and I have a feeling I can get Quick in the 4th, then I can grab Bernier in the 7th or 8th... would this make sense? Then I grab one of the LW's at 10. (although that pesky Kessler is looming in the back of my mind.... but he's a Center and newper would never let me live it down - with good reason!)

Thanks again guys.

[snacks]

Okay, I'm going... thanks for the advice... I've taken it all in and with a little bit of detective work have determined that 11 and 12 will probably be taking at least one goalie... so I'm gonna go goalie first, and then I'll take either Kovy or Parise coming back.

Gonna go with Lindy over Luongo.

Thanks all!

[asv27]

Okay, I'm going... thanks for the advice... I've taken it all in and with a little bit of detective work have determined that 11 and 12 will probably be taking at least one goalie... so I'm gonna go goalie first, and then I'll take either Kovy or Parise coming back.

Gonna go with Lindy over Luongo.

Thanks all!

Good plan. Take Lundy, even if it costs you Kovy and Parise.

[newper114]

well good detective work. if 11 and 12 were going for a goaile than maybe grabbing a goalie would have made sense. the only thing you didnt factor was if 11 and 12 took a goalie with there 13 and 14 picks they wouldnt have gone goalie so thats only 3 goalies off the board. they will go LW for strong forward most likely with picks 13 and 14 leaving you without possibly the 2 best LW's left but in drafts you never know.

if they would have taken 2 goales figure lundy, luongo or miller gets taken. at your 15th pick you still could just have eaisly gotten one of those 3 OR rinne or ward. those 2 are not anyworse off than those 3.. lets not forget bryz, quick, and so on. just alot of top notch goalies left not so many top not forwards. but yes going goalie you cant go wrong either just one lack of top talent.

just make sure after going this route that in the 4th round you get another strong goalie. make sure to build a strong goalie core and then build to forwards.

so take lundy, LW, RW, then possibly another goaile OR center than goalie... build to your stregnths now on down. dont say you got one strong goalie you can wait until round 8 or 10 to get another. if you have one strong one and then one weak one your goal of going strong goalie early on falls apart.

keep us posted on how this draft goes. love to see what you get.

[snacks]

Thanks for the advice newper... and BOY am I glad I went lundqvist... here's how it's gone since last we spoke...

Pick #10: Denver (ME) - Henrik Lundqvist (NYR-G)
Pick #11: Toronto - Martin St. Louis (TB-RW)
Pick #12: Albuquerque - Roberto Luongo (VAN-G)
Pick #1: Albuquerque- Pekka Rinne (NAS-G)
Pick #2: Toronto-
Pick #3: Denver-

Wow, ALB goes for 2 goalies, I had suspected that he would go for 1, but two? And I know that Toronto has had his hand (say that 5 times fast, "has had his hand) forced big time. He has to go goalie...

So now I've got Parise or Kovy... BUT... do I do the unthinkable and with 5 goalies off the board already do I take my 2nd goalie. You figure there are 20 picks before I come up again and there IS NO way that the run doesn't continue as people get desperate. Quick, Ward, Bryz, Niemmi, Miller, I can't see them being there. I was fully prepared to go with newper's sound advice and go LF, RF, G... but my applecart is being upset... ha ha.

I don't see how I can pass up an LF here, but Miller or Quick is tempting.

[newper114]

when you say LF you mean?

i would go forward here. if you dont go again for 20 picks i perfer to have a 2nd tier goalie over a 3rd tier LW. KOVALCHUK!!!!

[newper114]

sorry another fast post lol..

can you trade? i would try to trade your 5th and a later rounder (9th) to see if you can pry a 3rd rounder from someone. always a good plan since all the forward talent is still there.

[Pengwin7]

Lundqvist, eh.
Good for you - nice pick.

You also started a goalie run... which could be to your benefit.
IMO, if Miller is on the board at #15, you take him. This also causes a feeling of panic in the other GMs, who may continue the goalie run. An early goalie run is great for you, if you have your two, because it effectively leaves good skaters (F,D) on the board that should have been taken by your 3rd round pick.

Listen to you though - thinking about Quick right now!
You were thinking you could get him in the 4th round a few posts back!!! LOL

Because this is an 8-cat H2H league, you have to realize that guys like Kovalchuk are not going to help you in up to 3 cats (Hits, PIM, +/-). He's practically a zero in those categories. If you were in a points only league, yup Kovalchuk, great pick. Not in your league (sorry newper).

Look at that spreadsheet I sent you. Kovalchuk might be good in five categories, but you can also find sleepers that are very good in five categories (G, +/-, PIM, Hits, GWG)... you may know who I'm taking about. And those LWs can be grabbed in rounds 4, 5, 6.

My advice:
If Miller is there, you take him. He's the last of the big 5.
(Lundy, Rinne, Luongo, Price, Miller)

(*Parise is also a solid pick though.)

[snacks]

I mis-typed, LF? I meant LW... sorry.

That's funny you mention a trade. I was thinking about that. You think it's worth it giving up a 6th and 9th for a 3rd?

But yeah, I really want Parise, ur, I mean Kovy here at 15.

[newper114]

I mis-typed, LF? I meant LW... sorry.

That's funny you mention a trade. I was thinking about that. You think it's worth it giving up a 6th and 9th for a 3rd?

But yeah, I really want Parise, ur, I mean Kovy here at 15.

yeah i think a 6th and 9th is worth a 3rd and 11 or something like that. the later rounders around as important. middle tier picks like a 6th is valuable thats when you start building your depth. but think about it like this. you will never beable to trade for the guy you get in a 3rd round with the guys you get in the 6th and 11th. but picks make things differently.


yes i agree kovy wont help in hits and PIM but +- dont just write off his +- based on this years numbers. in the past the devils top lines are usually very good with +-. so as the team gets better that stat gets better. not saying your not right others might be better but you cant always look to cover EVERY stat with each pick..

man how do i miss drafting.

[Pengwin7]

In a keeper league though... how much faith in NJD players +/- should we have in the A.B. era?
(A.B. = After-Brodeur)

re: Kovalchuk.
Say there are 8 categories.
On a score out of 10, he may do very well in G, SOG, GWG, PPP... OK give him 10s.
In A... give him 7.
In Hits, PIM, +/-... give him 2.
10+10+10+10+7+2+2+2 = 53.

You could find a guy who is a 6 across the board.
And that player would be a 48.
For this reason, I'm not jumping the gun to get a Kovalchuk.


I'm not a fan of the Kovalchuk/NJD situation.
I spent many years here living in Atlanta - watching the franchise not able to build anything successfully around Kovy because he's an overspendature of cap $$$ for what he provides. Guys don't like playing with him. Eventually they want to leave (Savard, Hossa). Nobody likes it when the nancy-cherry-picker gets all the glory and the other guys aren't valued as highly. Combine this with a HIGHLY competitive Atlantic Division (PHI, PIT, NYR - all destined for long-time success, NYI rising), a sketchy financial situation (how long can NJD survive drawing the attendance that they do), and a team about to lose its franchise goalie to retirement... ugh, I don't like it. I'm not touching NJD players in any of my leagues.

[A Watch]

I'm in the camp of Miller then Parise. With a big run like that you go for the best available player and then trade to make your team fit and the value of Miller just got huge.

[snacks]

My gut tells me that Miller is about to go off the board - then it's my pick. So the question really becomes is: Quick, Bryz, Ward or even Thomas or Niemi more valuable here now than a forward?

I'm hearing what everyone is saying about NJD's, I still value Parise highly and I totally agree with newper's argument about taking a LWinger here, but I like the best player available argument as well - because of trading, which I think is gonna be rampant as people fill out there rosters. (note: this is an incredibly active group, we are in a large salary/dynasty group that does Baseball/Football/Basketball) So I keep coming back to Kane or maybe Kesler (even though he's a center) Ryan & Carter if Miller is gone. I've decided to shoot for HITS, SOGS, GOALS AND PIMS as my offensive thrust and hopefully I can also compete in PPP and GW's, but overall points and assists I won't worry about.

And the can of worms is open once again...

[Pengwin7]

Sounds like you are sold on Parise!

Remember... it is also important that you love your team after you've drafted it. If you are really feeling Parise, you should definitely go for him. (Just out of curiousity, after you draft him - ask the other guys who was considering him with their next pick... so you can feel out where he would have gone.)

[snacks]

Well all I can say is wow - Fluery went first, so I followed popular consensus and went for value:
Round 2:
Pick #1: Albuquerque- Pekka Rinne (NAS-G)
Pick #2: Toronto- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit-G)
Pick #3: Denver- Ryan Miller (Buff-G)