It’s a lot different projecting football than hockey. Hockey is play your best, never really read too much into the other team (ie. Buffalo vs Toronto, or Toronto vs Boston), because goals by your best player happen at random. Kessel could score 2 or none doesn’t matter who he plays.
In football, every QB vs a bad team is almost guaranteed 2 TDs. 2TDs almost mean 200yards minimum. So in most formats that’s like 14points right there, then you add in INT issues and such.
Stafford vs a great defense will through picks. No doubt. If he is down in a game, he’ll throw dumb tosses to megatron, and great defense will pick that off 4/10. A Pick in our league is -4 points I think. Good defensive coverage means the QB will hold the ball longer, raising the chance of a sack, and in our league that’s also -4 points.
Unless you have Payton, Rodgers, Brady, or Brees, there isn’t a QB in the league that I wouldn’t question starting when you have a middle QB against a terrible defense.
I stream at QB in most leagues so I get what you are saying(I went Mettz myself this week in a number of leagues). but in no way shape or form IMO do you start a Buccaneer QB who is playing his 1st game of the year before Stafford. a guy who you can usually count on for 1 TD in a bad game and a guy we have been watching making it through the whole game all year. nothing worse than using these 1st time starters and then they get hurt, or pulled.
Sometimes the smart play is not the right play. that is fantasy football for you. it is why the guy who is usally in last place once every 5 years has a great team. luck.
And at least you aren't these penguins.... (PS, crude but natural content)
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2839233/The-shocking-photographs-revealed-seals-having-sex-penguins-sparked-international-furore.html