18th overall pick...trade down? trade up?

[BradyJets]

I've got the 18th overall pick in the upcoming entry draft. Takes anyone from this year's crop of eligible players, plus anyone not previously taken in our league, but that's really slim on that end.

Would anyone advise to trade down? Trade up? Not sure what I'd have to give up to trade up, but how high would be worth moving? 14th? 12th? 10th?

I'm sure I can get a decent player at 18th, but would it be a similar player to, say, 22nd-ish?

Thanks in advance. League is in my sig.

[Axeman33]

I am sure the guy at 18 isn't going to be much different than the guy at 22 but we are also a few years away from really knowing that.

To me, the move down may fetch you another pick but whats the point of moving back a few spots only to gain someone who's even further away from NHL duty and a riskier option.

To me this is a quality vs quantity type of deal at that stage.

[JagrBomb]

i have pick #17 and packaged it with pick #35 to move up to pick #12.

a bit more than i wanted to pay as i dont think there is a huge difference between 12 and 17, but i knew the guy i wanted wouldnt last till 17. time will tell if i made a mistake but what's the point in drafting if you don't take some risks.

if i was in your position, i would try to move up to at least the 12th pick. or if you want to downgrade, unless you can get 1 or 2 picks in the 2nd/3rd i wouldnt bother.

[BradyJets]

I am sure the guy at 18 isn't going to be much different than the guy at 22 but we are also a few years away from really knowing that.

To me, the move down may fetch you another pick but whats the point of moving back a few spots only to gain someone who's even further away from NHL duty and a riskier option.

To me this is a quality vs quantity type of deal at that stage.

As always, thanks for the reply, Axe. You're right, I don't need a lower pick that's further from the NHL.

I'd offer to trade it to you, but you only have a 3rd (insert sad face here)....

[Axeman33]

As always, thanks for the reply, Axe. You're right, I don't need a lower pick that's further from the NHL.

I'd offer to trade it to you, but you only have a 3rd (insert sad face here)....

LOL! I traded all my early picks away trying to make a push for the title. It didn't work out for me. It is what it is.

[BradyJets]

i have pick #17 and packaged it with pick #35 to move up to pick #12.

a bit more than i wanted to pay as i dont think there is a huge difference between 12 and 17, but i knew the guy i wanted wouldnt last till 17. time will tell if i made a mistake but what's the point in drafting if you don't take some risks.

if i was in your position, i would try to move up to at least the 12th pick. or if you want to downgrade, unless you can get 1 or 2 picks in the 2nd/3rd i wouldnt bother.

Thanks, Praba.

I have four picks between #40 and 47, plus the 18th overall....I'll see what people want to offer, I guess, at least.

[fungchen3]

Hey Brady,

I would first see what the cost of trading up into the top 12-14 is. There are 14 prospects that I really like and here's how I'd personally tier them ...

Tier 1:
1. McDavid, Connor (F)
2. Eichel, Jack (F)

Tier 2:
3. Hanifin, Noah (D)
4. Marner, Mitch (F)
5. Strome, Dylan (F)

Tier 3:
6. Barzal, Mathew (F)
7. Provorov, Ivan (D)
8. Crouse, Lawson (F)
9. Rantanen, Mikko (F)
10. Werenski, Zach (D)
11. Zacha, Pavel (F)
12. Meier, Timo (F)

Tier 4:
13. Konecny, Travis (F)
14. Connor, Kyle (F)

The ^ guys are my favorite 14 and I would love to get my mitts on any of them. Being at 18 is a tricky spot IMO because you're most likely out on these guys and need to take more risks. At 18, I would be focusing on these guys below because I feel they have some serious boom potential:

1. Roy, Jeremy (D)
2. Kylington, Oliver (D)
3. Bittner, Paul (F)
4. Guryanov, Denis (F)
5. Merkley, Nick (F)

That's a total of 19 players. Of course some major sleepers can end up emerging from the draft as they did in 2003 ...

Getzlaf (19), Burns (20), Kesler (23), Richards (24), Perry (28), Eriksson (33), Bergeron (45), Weber (49), Crawford (52), Backes (62) and Howard (64). Not to mention gold nuggets like Enstrom (239) and Byfuglien (245).

I would try to move into the top 13 and if the price is too steep, stand pat at 18, unless someone is willing to overpay to move into 18 from say 20 (which I highly doubt). If you could get into 13 and end up grabbing a Travis Konecny, I would be very happy with my draft if I were you!

[Pengwin7]

I have the 17th overall pick in my league entry prospect draft (only 2015 eligible draft players).
I'm keeping it.
(End of Post EDIT thought: I just checked my league and Axeman has 2 of 3 picks before me... so... ugh... I might be screwed... though I have enough faith in Pronman/Brendan Ross that I'll take Svech or Bracco... if that's what's there)

The key is to simply make your list of your top 18 players.
It seems daunting... but worth the time.

In any new draft (a new league, or a prospect draft) there are... "dropoffs".
I remember one-year drafts two years ago... I saw five drafts where the same 8 players went in the top 8 (Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Malkin, Giroux, Lundqvist, Rask, Quick)... and then people didn't know who to take. Some floundered in that #9 spot trying to figure it out - no plan. In one league, a guy took Patrick Sharp that year at #9. (#unprepared) Others snagged a Perry or a Tavares. (#prepared)

Start with any list:
http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

One ranking I really, really like (shhhh) from that site is a consensus ranking:
http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft...nsus-rankings/
You can physically SEE a drop-off numerically there... which occurs after Konecny(#16)... before Roy(#17).
In fantasy, that's a good separation too since forwards > D in most fantasy leagues, so the drop of there may be even larger. (? subjective to league scoring !)
So that might be your target, to move up to #16.

Some people are really fond of the top 6... or top 10... or top 16 (per list above).
Depending on your GMs, you may get one of those top 16 guys, you may not... that's something only you know.
If it doesn't cost you too much to move up to #16, maybe you try that by packaging your #18 with your two 40ish picks (usually worth squat).