Who are my bottom keepers? *REP*

[SergeP]

It's still early but I figured I'd get a head start on feeling out opinions on my keeper selection for next year. First league in my signature, as you'll see I've built up quite the powerhouse team over the years and am closing in on my 3rd straight championship (though 2nd place still has a strong chance of knocking me off). The league is a "total points" keep-16 where we count the following:
G(3), A(2), +/-(1), PPP(1), SHP(1), PIM(0.3)
W(5), L(-2), Sv(0.2), SO(3), GA(-1)

My sure-thing keepers are:
Crosby
Tavares
Seguin
Stamkos
Giroux
Duchene
Okposo
Hedman
Vatanen
Barrie
Price
Holtby
Varlamov

After that group, I have to chose 3 out of the following:
Kreider
St. Louis
A. Lee
C. Smith
Bailey
Fisher
Michalek
Klingberg
Hamonic

Curious to see what everyone thinks

[adamwish]

I would probably lean to Lee, Klingberg, and Smith. Lee did a ton of damage playing second line minutes and will only go up from there. Klingberg is playing top pairing minutes as a rookie. Really it would probably be a toss up from Smith and Hamonic but by then youd be running with 4 islanders

[Doug Glatt]

I like Kreider Klingberg and Lee off your list. Though I would be looking to make moves to bring in better options if I could. Kreider and Lee are not as valuable in your format since you dont score hits. Perhaps you can find someone who overvalues them during the offseason and flip them for something better. Also, Vatanen and Barrie could both take steps backward next year with Wisniewski in Anaheim and Erik Johnson playing a healthy season for the Avs. You will obviously have to see how free agency shakes out before your list is written in ink. If Boudreau brought in Mike Green to Anaheim, for instance, Vatanen would be in serious trouble.

[RizzeeDizzee]

In general, I think Kreider, Lee and Kilngberg seem like logical choices, although it would help to know how many players start at each position. Also, it seems very odd for a league to have basically 50% of its categories be goalie-related yet have them not even amount to 20% of your active rosters.

And at first glance, it seems like your PIM would be a weak point, which almost - notice I said almost - gives you a case to retain Hamonic. Maybe look for any upgrade there by trading away one or more non-keepers to a weaker team who has PIM covered?

[davidgoodburn]

Lee, Klingberg are the top two. THrid spot is between Smith and Kreider. Smith has better current production but a lower upside. I would probably gamble on Kreider's upside but it's close.

[Kofax]

Klingberg and Kreider seem like the no brainers from the list.

I would probably keep St. Louis next as I still think he has veteran value for a team like yours that appears ready to compete. Hamonic isn't a bad choice, but PIM and Hits are easily found on the wire (EDIT: In a points league, this is actually irrelevant, so disregard). I'm not convinced Lee will become anything of value yet, so I'm not ready to keep him over St. Louis.

As an aside...

Also, it seems very odd for a league to have basically 50% of its categories be goalie-related yet have them not even amount to 20% of your active rosters.

I don't think you can think of it that way. It's really only 3 stats. W/L differential is a single stat, and SV/GA differential is a single stat, with SO being the bonus stat. In points leagues you need the L and GA to balance things out, otherwise the Goaltender value far outweights a players value. If you calculate the top skater vs top goaltenders using this setup, they typically end up very close to each other in the leagues I've seen.

[aj_ranger]

Klingberg, Lee and Kreider. Though not a slam-dunk keep, I'd gamble on Kreider's upside here.

[SergeP]

Thanks for the responses everyone. I've repped you all except for Doug and David whom I've apparently repped too much recently (kind of a dumb feature IMO). Just to throw a wrinkle in there, I recently grabbed Lehner to stash on IR. Would he make my final keeper list over one of the others? Goalies are insanely valuable in our system but I'm not sure Lehner amounts to more than a backup next year.

[Happy Hour]

I'll take Kreider, Klingberg and Lee from this list