Jonathan Huberdeau - future bust or potential breakout?

[fungchen3]

I acquired Huberdeau tonight and was doing some homework on him before I made the deal. Obviously the talent is there, but the Beach Cats stink and I've wondered if the constant failure may have damaged Huberdeau long-term. Is he damaged goods and a future bust... or is he about a season away from a decent breakout?

My gut tells me: as bleak as it looks right now, I don't think I can label Huberdeau a "bust" just yet. I feel the same way about Nail Yakupov. I think both kids are in crummy situations and need a better team environment in order to flourish.

So I started digging and I dissected a couple of players who Huberdeau has reminded me of at times (talent-wise) and this is what I found...

"Player A"
QMJHL - 59GP/23G/63A/86P (age 17) = 1.46 PPG
QMJHL - 53GP/33G/68A/101P (age 18) = 1.9 PPG
NHL - 80GP/9G/29A/38P (age 19) = 0.5 PPG
NHL - 81GP/16G/34A/50P (age 20) = 0.6 PPG
*NHL - 80GP/14G/32A/46P (age 21) = 0.57 PPG
NHL - 78GP/18G/31A/49P (age 22) [TRADED; FIRST YEAR ON NEW TEAM] = 0.6 PPG
NHL - 48GP/22G/24A/46P (age 23) = 0.96 PPG
NHL - 82GP/23G/39A/62P (age 24) = 0.76 PPG
NHL - 62GP/19G/45A/64P (age 25) = 1.03 PPG

"Player B"
QMJHL - 69GP/39G/64A/103P (age 17) = 1.5 PPG
QMJHL - 63GP/48G/64A/112P (age 18) = 1.78 PPG
QMJHL - 55GP/38G/68A/106P (age 19) = 1.9 PPG
NHL - 42GP/9G/18A/27P (age 20) = 0.6 PPG
*NHL - 82GP/16G/31A/47P (age 21) = 0.57 PPG
NHL - 82GP/25G/51A/76P (age 22) = 0.9 PPG
NHL - 77GP/28G/65A/93P (age 23) = 1.2 PPG
NHL - 48GP/13G/35A/48P (age 24) = 1 PPG
NHL - 82GP/28G/58A/86P (age 25) = 1.05 PPG
NHL - 61GP/18G/41A/59P (age 26) = 0.97 PPG

*Where Huberdeau currently is in his development

Now, let's look a Huberdeau's numbers...

"Jonathan Huberdeau"
QMJHL - 67GP/43G/62A/105P (age 17) = 1.6 PPG
QMJHL - 37GP/30G/42A/72P (age 18) = 1.9 PPG
QMJHL - 30GP/16G/29A/45P = 1.5 PPG and... NHL - 48GP/14G/17A/31P (age 19) = 0.6 PPG
NHL - 69GP/9G/19A/28P (age 20) = 0.4 PPG
*NHL - 58GP/9G/24A/33P (age 21) = 0.57 PPG

The similarities are startling!! Let's consider this snapshot...

1. Age 17 in QMJHL: Huberdeau (1.6 PPG) vs. Player B (1.5 PPG) vs. Player A (1.46 PPG)... Almost IDENTICAL

2. 1st year in NHL: Huberdeau (0.6 PPG) vs. Player B (0.6 PPG) vs. Player A (0.5 PPG)... Almost IDENTICAL

3. Age 21 in the NHL Huberdeau (0.57 PPG) vs. Player B (0.57 PPG) vs. Player A (0.57 PPG)... 100% IDENTICAL

After looking at these stats, I decided to pull the trigger on the trade and gamble on a potential breakout. Of course there's other factors, and intangibles, at play, but I think we may want to exercise a little patience with players like Huberdeau and Yakupov.

Oh, does anyone want to take a guess at who "Player A" and "Player B" are?

[metaldude26]

Voracek and Giroux.

[tomastop]

Good work!

Oh, does anyone want to take a guess at who "Player A" and "Player B" are?

Voracek & Giroux!

[keytolife]

From watching him every night he is actually neither.

He lacks the work ethic and the hockey iq to become a star in this league in my eyes. He still sticks to fancy plays way too much and he is not exactly what you call a good defensive player. On top of that he has no nose for the net at all and stills tries to pass the puck into the net.

On the other side he is a good playmaker and somehow gets points without playing any good and his speed is above average as well.

If i would need to take a guess he will pan out as a mediocre 2nd line winger with most of his production coming of assists.

Sadly speaking more of than not he is still one of the worst forwards on the ice when the Panthers play. The good thing is that latley he gets point despite that fact.

[Big Ev]

He reminds me of drouin

[Axeman33]

He reminds me of drouin

In what way?

[fungchen3]

He lacks the work ethic and the hockey iq to become a star in this league in my eyes. He still sticks to fancy plays way too much and he is not exactly what you call a good defensive player. On top of that he has no nose for the net at all and stills tries to pass the puck into the net.

Key, this sounds eerily similar to what people were saying about Voracek when it appeared he plateaued in Columbus. There was talk he wasn't in good enough shape; didn't work hard enough; was a primary passer who didn't use his shot, etc. Now, I'm not saying Huberdeau will end up exactly like Voracek - as I think the his trade to Philly was a wakeup call - but I don't think what we "see" from JH11 right now is the ultimate end game.

I remember watching Voracek in Columbus and thinking, "if this guy is lucky, he MIGHT be as good as Ales Hemsky one day" and boy I was wrong - I'm sure many people were. Let's not forget that Huberdeau is ONLY 21 years old and has never been surrounded by any type of legit talent.

I could see someone like Huberdeau stepping into the NHL at 18 as a hot shot rookie and feeling as if he needs to carry the franchise on his shoulders, only to fall short. Wouldn't be the first time or last time. Maybe I'm trying to be optimistic - and Huberdeau tops out as another "Sam Gagner" type - but I think there still is a CHANCE that he puts it together (either in Florida or somewhere else) and blossoms into a real nice 70-75 point player.

What do you think his future upside is? 50-60 points? I'm trying to gauge how "down" you are on him.

[The Good Sir]

I personally think it is too early to give up on him as fung has stated he is ONLY 21. That said I think expectations for him have definitely diminished (at least for me) and I no longer see him as a potential PPG+ player. I'd say if he truly puts it together he could be a solid 65-70 pt player, with the occasional outburst for 75.

[junyab]

Now, let's look a Huberdeau's numbers...

"Jonathan Huberdeau"
QMJHL - 67GP/43G/62A/105P (age 17) = 1.6 PPG
QMJHL - 37GP/30G/42A/72P (age 18) = 1.9 PPG
QMJHL - 30GP/16G/29A/45P = 1.5 PPG and... NHL - 48GP/14G/17A/31P (age 19) = 0.6 PPG
NHL - 69GP/9G/19A/28P (age 20) = 0.4 PPG
*NHL - 58GP/9G/24A/33P (age 21) = [COLOR=#ff0000][B]0.57 PPG

I'll take a stab at another comparable:

PMB
QMJHL - 67GP/95P (age 16) = 1.4 PPG
QMJHL - 69GP/140P (age 17) = 2.0 PPG
NHL - 50GP/20P (age 18) = 0.4 PPG
NHL - 61GP/22P (age 19) = 0.4 PPG
NHL - 80GP/59P (age 20) = 0.7 PPG

[CascadeFilly]

Now if he does fail to fulfill his potential, is the fault his (certainly if his work ethic is in question, as Key suggests, that's a problem), or does the fault lie on a franchise who maybe played him in the NHL a season too soon? I credit them for holding off for a season, but was it enough?

[RizzeeDizzee]

I did a Cage Match on Huberdeau and I liked what I saw: http://hockey.dobbersports.com/Cage-...than-huberdeau

Definitely not a bust from where I sit, and what the numbers seem to indicate.

[fungchen3]

I did a Cage Match on Huberdeau and I liked what I saw: http://hockey.dobbersports.com/Cage-...than-huberdeau

Definitely not a bust from where I sit, and what the numbers seem to indicate.

Nice read and breakdown! I actually just flipped Huberdeau to another GM, along with Crawford, for Pekka Rinne and David Rundblad. So he was short-lived on my squad but I still think he has very nice upside, as your great article detailed.

[roenick27]

Id go with the neither or in-between choice. While I agree, he is definitely not a bust, based on how he was touted, he should be carrying a Fla team, not be a secondary player by now. I would temper expectations to something like:
-Puts everything together and has an incredible, one time year (max upside): 77pts.
-More likely 3 best years would be around 55-65 points
-will average 45-55 points the next 5 years.

I have no data to base these off of, just a hunch. I would treat him as a good solid player to snag 55 points or so with a +/- of 10 points.

Future savior? No. Patrilk Stefan? No. Good 2nd liner. Yes

[keytolife]

Key, this sounds eerily similar to what people were saying about Voracek when it appeared he plateaued in Columbus. There was talk he wasn't in good enough shape; didn't work hard enough; was a primary passer who didn't use his shot, etc. Now, I'm not saying Huberdeau will end up exactly like Voracek - as I think the his trade to Philly was a wakeup call - but I don't think what we "see" from JH11 right now is the ultimate end game.

I remember watching Voracek in Columbus and thinking, "if this guy is lucky, he MIGHT be as good as Ales Hemsky one day" and boy I was wrong - I'm sure many people were. Let's not forget that Huberdeau is ONLY 21 years old and has never been surrounded by any type of legit talent.

I could see someone like Huberdeau stepping into the NHL at 18 as a hot shot rookie and feeling as if he needs to carry the franchise on his shoulders, only to fall short. Wouldn't be the first time or last time. Maybe I'm trying to be optimistic - and Huberdeau tops out as another "Sam Gagner" type - but I think there still is a CHANCE that he puts it together (either in Florida or somewhere else) and blossoms into a real nice 70-75 point player.

What do you think his future upside is? 50-60 points? I'm trying to gauge how "down" you are on him.

I really would love if you were right. The Thing is what i see Night in Night Out is no improvement at all. He is no Bad player just no future superstar in my eyes. If i Need to pencil him in i'd say 55-65 is what i would expect. Maybe a 70 Point Season? Not that likley in my eyes. He is def. the one of our Big 4 that is the least impressive especially since work ethic and Passion for the Game is something i value a lot.

[kovalchuk17]

as high of a pick 3rd overall is, its generally still a drastic drop off after the 1st and 2nd overall picks in each given year of eventual performance. for a pick that high theres a good chance he becomes a reliable scoring forward (say 65 points) with the upside of stardom. that doesnt necessarily mean he'll get there while hes young nor does it guarantee success if he reaches that level.

i dont think players can be labelled a bust until their mid-20s as some players take a bit longer to develop for whatever reason. sometimes it takes a few more years to get it, some need a change of scenery and some need the right linemates or need to be utilized correctly. hell, olli jokinen (3rd in 97) was traded twice and finally had his first good year in his age 24-25 season.

huberdeau has two elite level young centers to play with. once he finds permanent chemistry with one of them i think he'll be good to go.