OEL Is Not Underperforming (Offensively)

[theIceWookie]

So in reading different posts on this site, there seems to be a common idea that Oliver Ekman-Larsson is underperforming on the Coyotes. Makes sense, the Coyotes are struggling and it stands to reason that OEL is also a part of that struggle. I've seen a few posts where people are expecting to see him at a higher offensive pace.

I wanted to clear something up though. While he's struggling defensively, he isn't struggling offensively. OEL is in line with his career numbers right now.

His career average shooting percentage is 6.5 percent. He's currently shooting 7 percent.

His career point pace is 35 points. Now obviously that is skewed by his rookie season of 11 point in 48 games, but even if we toss that out, his pace only rises to 0.48 PPG. He's currently scoring at 0.47 PPG.

Last year he achieved career highs in PPP, with 22. While he's not on track to hit the same total, he currently has 8 PPP's, which puts him on pace for 12.5 over his last 50 games, which would be a total of 20 PPP (20.5 really but I digress).

His career high is 44 points, and he's currently on pace for 38 points. Not a huge difference.

Looking into more peripherals, he's hitting slightly more at 1.9 hits per game compared to career averages of 1.6 per game and he's blocking at steady career pace.

pretty steady.

The only real discernible differences come in two things. His plus/minus and shot total. His plus/minus is bad at -12 but considering his team is awful right now, and he's got the lion share of defensive responsibilities, it's not unheard of.

The big difference is shots though. He's shooting above 3 a game right now. A FULL SHOT MORE THAN HIS AVERAGE'S.

What does this all say? OEL isn't struggling offensively like people seem to think. His team just sucks, and he's having a below average defensive year, however he's in line with his usual offensive totals.

It may be time for some people to adjust there expectations for OEL.

[TheNugeCooge]

Well he does have an on-ice shooting percentage at 5on5 below 6% and a PDO of 9630 which are both pretty low when compared to last season. His Corsi numbers actually appear to have improved this year compared to last but the on-ice shooting percentage is driving down his assist total. Add the fact that Mike Smith has been terrible and you can see why his +/- is so bad right now.

I think with a little luck OEL is going to improve slightly as the season goes on and finishes closer to 45 points than the 38 you're saying he's on pace for.

[2014olympicgold]

I wouldn’t say underperforming, I would say not hitting expectations. Everyone was expecting another step forward, but he didn’t really take it this yr.

[Canucks_fan18]

I agree I think he still finishes mid 40's. I think the big x factor for OEL is when or if Yandle gets traded. If he becomes the main man for the Dogs, then I think 50 is achievable but not guaranteed. His shot totals are with the elite of the D.

[jcairns]

So in reading different posts on this site, there seems to be a common idea that Oliver Ekman-Larsson is underperforming on the Coyotes. Makes sense, the Coyotes are struggling and it stands to reason that OEL is also a part of that struggle. I've seen a few posts where people are expecting to see him at a higher offensive pace.

I wanted to clear something up though. While he's struggling defensively, he isn't struggling offensively. OEL is in line with his career numbers right now.

His career average shooting percentage is 6.5 percent. He's currently shooting 7 percent.

His career point pace is 35 points. Now obviously that is skewed by his rookie season of 11 point in 48 games, but even if we toss that out, his pace only rises to 0.48 PPG. He's currently scoring at 0.47 PPG.

Last year he achieved career highs in PPP, with 22. While he's not on track to hit the same total, he currently has 8 PPP's, which puts him on pace for 12.5 over his last 50 games, which would be a total of 20 PPP (20.5 really but I digress).

His career high is 44 points, and he's currently on pace for 38 points. Not a huge difference.

Looking into more peripherals, he's hitting slightly more at 1.9 hits per game compared to career averages of 1.6 per game and he's blocking at steady career pace.

pretty steady.

The only real discernible differences come in two things. His plus/minus and shot total. His plus/minus is bad at -12 but considering his team is awful right now, and he's got the lion share of defensive responsibilities, it's not unheard of.

The big difference is shots though. He's shooting above 3 a game right now. A FULL SHOT MORE THAN HIS AVERAGE'S.

What does this all say? OEL isn't struggling offensively like people seem to think. His team just sucks, and he's having a below average defensive year, however he's in line with his usual offensive totals.

It may be time for some people to adjust there expectations for OEL.

You need to know the difference between shooting % and on-ice shooting %. Shooting % isn't very useful for D as they have a very low shooting percentage, so we are talking only the difference of a goal or two in a year. On ice shooting % gives a much better picture because it is the shooting percentage for the team when he is on the ice. As a defenseman, most of your points come through assists so this is what you need to look at. OEL's on ice shooting percentage is just above 6% - a normal on-ice shooting percentage should be 8-11%. So, he could see a 50% improvement as the season progresses (though probably not that much, because I imagine Arizona is a relatively low percentage shooting team in general).

And yes, his career high is 44 points, but he's 23 years old and you obviously haven't watched him play. OEL is already, at just 23 years old, one of the most gifted defensemen in the NHL. He will have several 50+ point seasons. The reason he is "underperforming" is because, as others have said, many expected he might take that next step THIS YEAR and hit 50 points. He's off pace for that, but he will hit that soon.

[Mr. Guru]

So if a young player with potential is slightly on pace for a little less than his career high that means he is under performing?


If he doesn't reach new highs, like many expected, than he is under performing in fantasy mangers eyes. wow

[Atomic Wedgy]

I dont think the expecations of him are that off. He is 23 years old. It is unlikely that he has peaked in his performance and/or development. Defenceman almost invariably take more time to develop their game to its full potential. He has played under 300 games, so I personally don think it is out of order to think that he could find another gear offensively. I would put him in the 50-55 point range comfortably once he is fully developed. I also think his career high will be in the 60s. It may take him 2-3 years to fully develop.

[theIceWookie]

You need to know the difference between shooting % and on-ice shooting %. Shooting % isn't very useful for D as they have a very low shooting percentage, so we are talking only the difference of a goal or two in a year. On ice shooting % gives a much better picture because it is the shooting percentage for the team when he is on the ice. As a defenseman, most of your points come through assists so this is what you need to look at. OEL's on ice shooting percentage is just above 6% - a normal on-ice shooting percentage should be 8-11%. So, he could see a 50% improvement as the season progresses (though probably not that much, because I imagine Arizona is a relatively low percentage shooting team in general).

And yes, his career high is 44 points, but he's 23 years old and you obviously haven't watched him play. OEL is already, at just 23 years old, one of the most gifted defensemen in the NHL. He will have several 50+ point seasons. The reason he is "underperforming" is because, as others have said, many expected he might take that next step THIS YEAR and hit 50 points. He's off pace for that, but he will hit that soon.

My post was referencing an idea I've seen posted around here that OEL hasn't been playing up to par offensively. Which according to his past seasons isn't true. He's quite in line with that. His personal shooting percentage points to that, which is why I used it instead of team on ice shooting percentage.

Now an argument could be made that OEL isn't hitting EXPECTATIONS for his offensive potential and that's a very different argument. One where age, team shooting percentage and more come into play.

I have watched him play (not that it makes a difference to the argument) but my post had very little to do with expectations. OEL is not currently underperforming relative to his career, where a number of different posts I've seen have referenced that. He isn't hitting expectations yet, but that doesn't mean he is underperforming.

[jcairns]

My post was referencing an idea I've seen posted around here that OEL hasn't been playing up to par offensively. Which according to his past seasons isn't true. He's quite in line with that. His personal shooting percentage points to that, which is why I used it instead of team on ice shooting percentage.

Now an argument could be made that OEL isn't hitting EXPECTATIONS for his offensive potential and that's a very different argument. One where age, team shooting percentage and more come into play.

I have watched him play (not that it makes a difference to the argument) but my post had very little to do with expectations. OEL is not currently underperforming relative to his career, where a number of different posts I've seen have referenced that. He isn't hitting expectations yet, but that doesn't mean he is underperforming.

I agree.

[waddy1788]

To TheIceWookie, great post pal. I really enjoyed the read.

The fact that OEL is only 23 and is playing a lot of defensive minutes for a poor defensive team, and keeping up his offensive pace is pretty impressive. It takes defencemen to usually 27/28 to fully mature defensively on average(everything is up to argument and debate obviously). I am not knocking his play this year. The best years of this kids career are still in front of him, and I am proud to own him.

Lastly, his minus 12 is killing me in my keeper pool!!!!!!!!!!!!