Anyone care to ballpark my chances?

[larrylintz]

I’m basically tied with this team just over ¼ of the way into season. Who comes out on top? I know there are some obvious or potential sell-high guys here, and i do have a defence surplus, but I've tested the market and this league very hard to trade with. So just want you to look at my chances assuming this is my team.

It’s 15-team non-keeper, every team has average of 12 players, 7 active including two d-men. Just points, goals same as assists.

Me:
Seguin
Hornqvist
Tarasenko
Lehtera
One of Koivu/Gaborik…and Hemsky if I’m desperate
Karlson
Letang with Barrie and Klingberg in reserve

ONE waiver wire pick left.

Him:
Malkin
Spezza
Kunitz
Forsberg
Callaghan/Stastny/Zetterberg
Josi
Krug w Green and Ehrhoff in reserve

No WW picks.

Note: Obviously he has opportunity to package a forward or two and a d-man for a star d-man, or a star forward, so that's one of my big risks. But I am hoping Forsberg will come down to earth and hoping like heck Callaghan was not hiding in plain sight all these years as an 80-point guy.
I realize i have some injury-prone oldies but of course so does he with Malkin, Spezza, Zetterberg and Green. And Barrie/Kling a nice backup in case disaster strikes on D.

There are other teams below us that could get hot but this guy is clearly my biggest challenger.

[Dobber]

Looks good. His dmen will be his undoing

Forsberg, Tarasenko, Lehtera will all slow, two of those are your guys so that will keep it close. Your ace in the hole is that WW pick - hold that until at least January.

[notch4077]

That plus the other guys entire team may get injured if they have to unzip their own hockey bag. Not good when your championship hopes rest on your players equipment managers never calling in sick.

You got this.

[LakeSoup]

I’m basically tied with this team just over ¼ of the way into season. Who comes out on top? I know there are some obvious or potential sell-high guys here, and i do have a defence surplus, but I've tested the market and this league very hard to trade with. So just want you to look at my chances assuming this is my team.

It’s 15-team non-keeper, every team has average of 12 players, 7 active including two d-men. Just points, goals same as assists.

Me:
Seguin
Hornqvist
Tarasenko
Lehtera
One of Koivu/Gaborik…and Hemsky if I’m desperate
Karlson
Letang with Barrie and Klingberg in reserve

ONE waiver wire pick left.

Him:
Malkin
Spezza
Kunitz
Forsberg
Callaghan/Stastny/Zetterberg
Josi
Krug w Green and Ehrhoff in reserve

No WW picks.

Note: Obviously he has opportunity to package a forward or two and a d-man for a star d-man, or a star forward, so that's one of my big risks. But I am hoping Forsberg will come down to earth and hoping like heck Callaghan was not hiding in plain sight all these years as an 80-point guy.
I realize i have some injury-prone oldies but of course so does he with Malkin, Spezza, Zetterberg and Green. And Barrie/Kling a nice backup in case disaster strikes on D.

There are other teams below us that could get hot but this guy is clearly my biggest challenger.

Seguin = Malkin, Hornqvist = Kunitz, Tarasenko = Forsberg, Lehtera vs Spezza...pretty equal. I think Spezza can outpoint Lehtera, but he's a BAB so it's a wash.

Your depth players vs Cally/Statsny/Zetterberg is definitely much more inferior, but then again your D are far superior to his D.

I think Karlsson and Letang can both hit somewhere around 60 each, and I don't see Krug and Josi hitting too far beyond 40 each. So you're 40 points ahead of him in D season-end, but I'm honestly concerned that your last F spot is so weak that those 40 points can be made up pretty easily with that 1 slot. At the moment, it's like you don't even have a F with how bad Koivu and Gaborik are slumping.

It's so equal.
I probably just give a very slight edge to you because you have a waiver pick, and if there's a F that gets hot, you can fill that last slot up and hopefully close that F gap.

[larrylintz]

Thanks guys, appreciate that you took the time and the votes of confidence will likely prevent me from making a panic move. Re. Gabby and Koivu in #5 slot, yes it's ugly for the moment but if, big if, Gabby stays healthy i don't see how he doesn't produce at 55-point level rest of way and perhaps a lot more of he and Kopi recapture last year's magic. And i would find it hard to believe Koivu has just fallen off a cliff, he scored at a 65 point pace last year. both have been mentioned in other threads as buy-low candidates.

Just fyi, here is a list of the top scorers over past month who are on the waiver wire in this league. Do you see anyone on this list who strikes you as a pretty solid bet to be a 60-point plus producer, who gets lots of PP time and isn't dependent on a coach's whims re. line combos, who i can rely on for rest of year, who i would confidently put up over gabby or koivu? I don't really, and agree with Dobber that it's best to save WW pick to both cover for injury risk and to give more time to see if there's a clearer indication of a potential break-out player/career year emerging. Few of my more astute competitors have picks left so i have a bit of time to contemplate.

Versteeg, tatar, gjugstad, gaudreau, vermet, glencross, M. Johansson riley nash, Doan, Komarov, Strom, Franzen, Eakin, Cam Atkinson

[LakeSoup]

Thanks guys, appreciate that you took the time and the votes of confidence will likely prevent me from making a panic move. Re. Gabby and Koivu in #5 slot, yes it's ugly for the moment but if, big if, Gabby stays healthy i don't see how he doesn't produce at 55-point level rest of way and perhaps a lot more of he and Kopi recapture last year's magic. And i would find it hard to believe Koivu has just fallen off a cliff, he scored at a 65 point pace last year. both have been mentioned in other threads as buy-low candidates.

Just fyi, here is a list of the top scorers over past month who are on the waiver wire in this league. Do you see anyone on this list who strikes you as a pretty solid bet to be a 60-point plus producer, who gets lots of PP time and isn't dependent on a coach's whims re. line combos, who i can rely on for rest of year, who i would confidently put up over gabby or koivu? I don't really, and agree with Dobber that it's best to save WW pick to both cover for injury risk and to give more time to see if there's a clearer indication of a potential break-out player/career year emerging. Few of my more astute competitors have picks left so i have a bit of time to contemplate.

Versteeg, tatar, gjugstad, gaudreau, vermet, glencross, M. Johansson riley nash, Doan, Komarov, Strom, Franzen, Eakin, Cam Atkinson

No one on that list speaks to me except Franzen. While I do like him over Gaborik and Koivu, he is too much of an injury rrisk to use your ONLY waiver pick on. Stay put and cycle who you already have - I don't feel like Koivu will rebound any time soon but perhaps Gab will.

[larrylintz]

No one on that list speaks to me except Franzen. While I do like him over Gaborik and Koivu, he is too much of an injury rrisk to use your ONLY waiver pick on. Stay put and cycle who you already have - I don't feel like Koivu will rebound any time soon but perhaps Gab will.

Well! Not sure if you guys will revisit this thread but I just managed to flip Hemsky for a waiver wire pick. Unless it's vetoed I think i may take Franzen for next week for Wings four game week (three home), it will hopefully help me off-set the Zetterberg factor, though i will wait till very last minute and hope franzen not hurt. Anyone think Tatar better bet? Or even Weiss? Or...is Versteeg the best player available? He's not only hot but is playing with Kane and is on first pp unit.