Fantrax Draft Advice Needed

[Puck Nation]

I just joined a Fantrax league and my draft is in about 10 days. I'm looking for some draft strategy. the team config is new to me. I would normally focus heavy on F using my D to round out my needs. I understand things change as you are drafting, runs, etc. I also understand and follow best-player-available most times. I would assume some here are in these Fantrax leagues. I am curious how you approached the draft. Unfortunately I don't know my draft spot yet. the following is some of the rules............

It is a 12 team weekly start league. H2H pts. starting line-up consists of: 5-F, 3-D, 2-G. and 6-bnch. Scoring is as follows..................

Skaters; G=3pts, A=2pts, PIM=0.5pts, SHG=2pts, SOG-0.5pts, PPP=1pts
Goalies, A=3pts, GA=-1, PIM=0.5pts, SV=0.25, SHO=5pts, W=5pts

thanks in advance for advice.

[SteveMa]

Sorry I don't have any advice as I've never played there before, however I noticed that mock drafts are available now. Cheers!

[RememberRobitaille]

Wow, that's a very goal heavy scoring format. I would bump the snipers well up your list, especially if they shoot a lot (240 SOGs gets you as many points as 40 goals!).

Yeah, your "draft best available" strategy is especially good for a multi-cat points league. Waiting for your defensemen may not be a bad thing since this format is so heavily weighted on goal scorers. But try to remember that, with the existence of positional requirements, a 50 point D-man is as good as a 70 point forward.

Also, you could make some nice, sneaky goalie picks later in the draft. With these categories, a guy like Luongo (lots of saves and GPs) could be as valuable as Rask.

Do you subscribe to FHG? Would love to see how guys are rated in this system. I bet that would really open your eyes as to where you should be drafting guys.

[RememberRobitaille]

Okay, I plugged these numbers into FHG. I'll give you a taste of what you're looking at for early draft strategy. If you don't subscribe to FHG, then you totally should. It's worth it. Huge advantage when it comes to figuring out player values in these kinds of pools.

So using Dobber projections, your top 6 scoring skaters are:

Ovechkin (d'uh) 475 points
Crosby 432 points
Stamkos 410 points
Kessel 389 points
Perry 385 points
Malkin 381 points

After those guys, there is only a 52 point difference between #7 and #30!

Defensemen... Here are the top 5:

Karlsson 339 points
Subban 318 points
Buff 316 points
Weber 303 points
Yandle 283 points

After that it drops off to Phaneuf at 256 points, and then there are about 25 guys between 200 and 246 points.

Goalies... Lundqvist, Price and Rask are your three best (499, 482, 475). But what's interesting about the goalies is that the next 15 guys are within 70 points of each other (#4 is Anderson at 257, #18 is Halak at 389).

So what does this all tell you? What this tells you is that getting one of these top forwards will be a HUGE advantage. If you get a Top 3 pick, absolutely use it on one of those guys.

If you can't get a top 3 forward, then getting one of the top 3 goalies would also be amazing, but not quite as huge as the forwards, since the points drop-off for goalies isn't as drastic.

If you can't get any of those guys in the first round, I'd grab one of the top 3 D-men, and then go back to getting forwards for a while (unless the D-men are being ignored). If you can't get a top goalie, you'll probably be able to be patient with selecting yours. If they start going on a little run, then you can grab two guys from the top 25 and you'll know you won't suffer too badly in that position.

If the best D-men go early, then you can likely wait until much later to select yours since you're not seeing much difference in that group beneath the top 5-6 guys.

Anyway... hope that helps. Good luck in the draft!

[Magicstew]

Getting one of the top 3 goalies is huge - 3rd goalie = top forward - You also definitely need to have a second solid goalie because of all the goalie categories.
If you have a top 10 pick I would be taking either a goalie or the forwards listed.
If you have a top 3 pick maybe you should look at trading down in the first round - i.e 1&3 for a 1&2 , gives you 3 picks in the first 2 rounds.

[RememberRobitaille]

Getting one of the top 3 goalies is huge - 3rd goalie = top forward - You also definitely need to have a second solid goalie because of all the goalie categories.

I strongly disagree with this advice.

First, you can't use "all the goalie categories" as your reason for favouring goalies. This is a points based pool, not a straight head-to-head category matchup format. You want to get the most points each week, period. Doesn't matter where they come from. What does matter is that you must fill those 5F, 3D, and 2G roster spots in the most optimal way possible.

Secondly, your picks should not be based purely upon what available player is expected to get you the most fantasy points (take off the blinders). If you want to out-perform your fellow GMs, you absolutely must consider what players (at each position) are likely to be available later in the draft and compare them to the players currently available. You want to try to take players who will be significantly better than players at the same position who will be available in future rounds.

Example: You have the 1st overall pick. Let's say you take Lundqvist first, since he's expected to get the most fantasy points of any player (499). I assume this is a snake style draft, so there will be 22 picks made before you pick again. Let's say everyone goes goalie crazy and there are 10 more goalies selected in there (kind of a best case scenario for your 2nd pick). To go along with that, 8 forwards are picked, and 4 D-men. You decide to pick your first forward now, selecting Taylor Hall (359 points projected). So, first two picks, and a total of 858 points expected. Not bad.

Now, take that same draft position and take Ovechkin first (475 points). The other 22 picks go the same (11 goalies, 7 forwards, 4 D-men). Now you decide to pick your first goalie and settle on the #12 ranked guy, Pekka Rinne (425 points). You just netted 900 projected points with your first two picks, 42 more than in the first scenario. And that's working with what I would consider a very optimal drafting situation for the "goalie first" strategy.

So what happened? In scenario 1, you drafted first from a position that is comparatively much deeper and has a much narrower point spread over a larger range of players. The top 3 forwards are so much further ahead of the other ones than the top goalies are ahead of their peers. So when you pick a goalie first, you're then left to pick up the smaller table scraps of forwards or D-men.

This isn't to say that picking a goalie first is wrong. As I said, if you get a later pick, and the top forwards are gone, then taking a goalie is a very wise move. But if you get one of those top 3 picks, taking a forward is the clear choice. The draft is fluid. You'll always need to keep an eye on who is available and who is likely to be available later. Sometimes it might even mean reaching for a guy a pick or two early to make sure you don't get screwed later.

[Puck Nation]

thank you for the great advice!! in particular robitaille! one update is it looks like I have the 3rd pick. Any more advice based on me picking 3rd? thanks in advance.

[SergeP]

I'm also in one of these leagues and we had our draft last Sunday. If you're picking 3rd I would absolutely grab Ovechkin, who is likely to still be available as the top 2 will likely be some combination of Crosby/Stamkos/Rask. If Ovy isn't available, I'd grab one of Crosby, Stamkos or Malkin - I wouldn't use the pick on a goalie or Dman. Having said that, in my draft there was a RAID on goalies in the firs two rounds so I strongly suggest grabbing a tender with your second or third round pick. Due to the huge weight given to goalie points and the fact that it's a weekly start league with 2 goalie slots, I'd avoid timeshare goalies as much as possible. I'd also try to get a 3rd starting tender for my bench.

Also, I found that in my draft, much like most drafts, there was an over-emphasis on youth. Guys like Mack, Nich, S. Jones, etc. went earlier than they probably should have in a 1 year league. Use that to your advantage by snagging veteran guys like Iginla, the Sedins, Thornton, etc. in the later rounds.