Oddsmakers give Preds, Flames, Panthers & Sabres greatest long shot to win SC

[Axeman33]

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...cup-longshots/

"Online oddsmaker Bovada has released its latest list of favorites — and longshots — for the 2015 Stanley Cup. While Chicago retained its spot at the top of the list (at 13/2, slightly shorter odds than the 7/1 it had back in July), we thought it’d be interesting to spotlight teams with the longest odds, at 75/1:

Calgary, Buffalo, Florida and Nashville.

It’s interesting to note that Nashville joined the longshot group after getting 66/1 odds two months ago. This drop coincided with the club replacing the services of arguably their top center (Mike Fisher) with veteran middle men Derek Roy and Mike Ribeiro.

Do keep in mind the increase in odds isn’t purely reflective of what Nashville has done in terms of player transactions; odds are often raised and/or dropped depending on how much action the team gets at a particular number. Of course, this is based on the premise people actually make Stanley Cup futures bets on the Predators.

Here is the full list of Cup contenders, per Bovada:

Odds on 7/9/14 Current Odds

Chicago Blackhawks 7/1 13/2

Los Angeles Kings 9/1 9/1

Boston Bruins 10/1 10/1

Anaheim Ducks 12/1 12/1

Pittsburgh Penguins 12/1 12/1

St. Louis Blues 12/1 12/1

San Jose Sharks 14/1 14/1

Minnesota Wild 18/1 16/1

New York Rangers 16/1 16/1

Tampa Bay Lightning 18/1 16/1

Colorado Avalanche 18/1 18/1

Montreal Canadiens 20/1 18/1

Dallas Stars 18/1 20/1

Detroit Red Wings 22/1 22/1

Philadelphia Flyers 28/1 28/1

Columbus Blue Jackets 33/1 33/1

Toronto Maple Leafs 33/1 40/1

Vancouver Canucks 28/1 40/1

Washington Capitals 40/1 40/1

Edmonton Oilers 50/1 50/1

New Jersey Devils 50/1 50/1

Carolina Hurricanes 66/1 66/1

New York Islanders 50/1 66/1

Ottawa Senators 50/1 66/1

Arizona Coyotes 50/1 66/1

Winnipeg Jets 50/1 66/1

Buffalo Sabres 75/1 75/1

Calgary Flames 75/1 75/1

Florida Panthers 75/1 75/1

Nashville Predators 66/1 75/1"

[GretzkysMullet]

Is it just me or does it seem a little unfair to lump the Preds in with those other teams?

[Axeman33]

Is it just me or does it seem a little unfair to lump the Preds in with those other teams?

Yeh, I'd agree with you there. I expect them to be better than these guys are giving them credit for.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Is Bovada the one that used to be Bodog?

I agree the Preds are a good buy at those odds (they still won't win but that's too low)

[metaldude26]

Maybe the Preds aren't getting enough credit but does anyone give them a real shot in a conference with LA, Chicago, St. Louis, Anaheim, Dallas, just to name a few?

Also, keep in mind that part of what drives the odds is not what actually might happen but what people might actually bet on. The Preds are obviously not a public team so they'd need juiced odds to get people to throw money at them whereas there are always going to be some hopeful fans of teams like Edmonton or Vancouver to name a couple who will throw money at a worse team but shorter odds just because they hear about them in the media more frequently.

[Dutch]

I prefer Ribeiro over Fisher as #1 center, so i'll take the longshots.

preds gonna make the playoffs, and then anything can happen.

do I think we are gonna win? no

[MXHockey]

I prefer Ribeiro over Fisher as #1 center, so i'll take the longshots.

preds gonna make the playoffs, and then anything can happen.

do I think we are gonna win? no

Agreed the betting odds are too low, but the Preds won't be making the playoffs this year.

[The Comish]

Hmm, what if I were to drop $100 each on the top 5 teams? In real life there are only a handful of teams that should realistically have a decent shot at winning the Cup. Seriously, betting on one of Chi, LA, Bos, Ana or Pit to win it all. What's the payout for the team with the best odds of winning, 7:1, so I'd win $700? I won't trivialize dropping $500 on one of five teams to win old Stanley, but I might just have to try my hand at this if I find myself in Vegas over the next couple of months.

[metaldude26]

Lightning definitely have the best odds available.

[Dutch]

Hmm, what if I were to drop $100 each on the top 5 teams? In real life there are only a handful of teams that should realistically have a decent shot at winning the Cup. Seriously, betting on one of Chi, LA, Bos, Ana or Pit to win it all. What's the payout for the team with the best odds of winning, 7:1, so I'd win $700? I won't trivialize dropping $500 on one of five teams to win old Stanley, but I might just have to try my hand at this if I find myself in Vegas over the next couple of months.

I've thought about this strategy numerous times. I wonder if it's profitable to do this though.

[LawMan]

Maybe it's just me but I seem to remember a few years ago that 2-3 teams had odds of several hundred-1. Seems like 75-1 is not nearly high enough for the league's worst teams.

I like the Lightning the best as a longshot.

[LawMan]

Hmm, what if I were to drop $100 each on the top 5 teams? In real life there are only a handful of teams that should realistically have a decent shot at winning the Cup. Seriously, betting on one of Chi, LA, Bos, Ana or Pit to win it all. What's the payout for the team with the best odds of winning, 7:1, so I'd win $700? I won't trivialize dropping $500 on one of five teams to win old Stanley, but I might just have to try my hand at this if I find myself in Vegas over the next couple of months.

The opposite of a longshot, decent chance to win a relatively small amount, lose everything if a dark horse takes it.

Let's say for simplicity you think the top-5 teams (Chicago, LA, Boston, Anaheim, Pittsburgh)all have the same shot to win the Cup. Those 5 teams average out at 9.9:1.
So betting $100 on each is betting $500 to win an average of $990 if one of them takes it, basically an even money wager. So, if you think those 5 teams have a better than 50% shot of winning the cup it's a long-term winner.

[sourdough]

Lightning definitely have the best odds available.

It's between them and the Kings for me. I might throw down $10 on the lightning before the season starts. The kings I would wait and hope that the odds get better for them as better regular season teams start to pass them.

[MXHockey]

The opposite of a longshot, decent chance to win a relatively small amount, lose everything if a dark horse takes it.

Let's say for simplicity you think the top-5 teams (Chicago, LA, Boston, Anaheim, Pittsburgh)all have the same shot to win the Cup. Those 5 teams average out at 9.9:1.
So betting $100 on each is betting $500 to win an average of $990 if one of them takes it, basically an even money wager. So, if you think those 5 teams have a better than 50% shot of winning the cup it's a long-term winner.

Likely profitable if the Stanley Cup was every week........

[metaldude26]

It's between them and the Kings for me. I might throw down $10 on the lightning before the season starts. The kings I would wait and hope that the odds get better for them as better regular season teams start to pass them.

The Kings are almost a no-brainer to wait on. Both times they've won the Cup it was after watching their odds fall dramatically come playoff time. Worst case scenario the Kings do really well and you are still looking at odds close to this come April.