Ovechkin vs Barkov and Weber

[jeremyha03]

I guy's just want to have your input, received an offer my Ovy and a late pick for Alexander Barkov and Shea Weber. I know it sounds crazy but Ovy is slowing down and is always a risk of going back to KHL. Barkov is one of the best prospect wich can have a great season 50 pts maybe more and Weber is around 50 pts also with the addition of Neal he can collect a few more assist. I don't think i'm loosing mutch, what do you guy's think? Should i do it?

[STONE.]

I guy's just want to have your input, received an offer my Ovy and a late pick for Alexander Barkov and Shea Weber. I know it sounds crazy but Ovy is slowing down and is always a risk of going back to KHL. Barkov is one of the best prospect wich can have a great season 50 pts maybe more and Weber is around 50 pts also with the addition of Neal he can collect a few more assist. I don't think i'm loosing mutch, what do you guy's think? Should i do it?

Ovy might have slowed, but there are 9.5 million reasons why he won't be going to the KHL for quite a long time. I wouldn't base your decision on that at all.
I don't like this for you. Ovy is still a top tier points producer, and looking at your team, you'd have to drop a pretty decent D option to make room for Weber (assumedly Leddy) and then you'd put Barkov into your Fs and he'd be a MASSIVE point drop.

[kevinsrangers]

ya i dont like it either. ovi is still a top guy, especially with goals as a category. webber is a good defenseman but i just dont think he and barkov match up.

[Slug]

Would rather keep Ovi and a 30pt dman with a chance for more in Leddy
In a points league like yours the minimum I'd want for Ovi is a forward who has proven they can get 70+points and Weber

[newfcollins]

Ovi just finished eighth in the league in points, and first for goals. That's not much of lowdown.

As for the KHL, I wouldn't worry about it. Unless you start to worry about every Russian, such as Datsyuk, Bobrovsky, etc.

[Pengwin7]

Hmmm... you know, in "points only"... that IS the league format where I'd be looking to trade Ovechkin.
He's great for multi-cat leagues, but I really only see him in the 75-80pt range.

Is this a "keep all"?

With 18GMs, there's a lot of players here.
12F x 18 = 216F.
Forward #216 is only going to be a 30pt scorer (maybe!).
This means Ovechkin is a relative +50pt player (at 80pts) vs. F#216.
This means Barkov is a relative +35pt player (at 65pts) vs. F#216. (I value Barkov as a 65pt forward in the foreseeable future)

4D x 18 = 72D.
Defense #72 is only going to be a 25pt scorer (maybe!).
This means Weber is a relative +25pt player (at 50pts) vs. D#72.

Ovechkin (+50)
vs.
Barkov (+35) & Weber (+25)


The numbers suggest that Barkov/Weber IS the better return in a 18-team "keep all", counting 12F/4D per team.
I think you have to strongly be considering making this trade.

Much of it leans on how likely it is for your team to compete.
With 18-teams, you really have to be a top 5 team to have a chance to win the league.
If you are not in that top 5, you should consider re-building a bit... and Weber/Barkov is a pretty good return in such a DEEP league.

Tough call... you have to know where your team stacks up in this league vs. other teams.

[STONE.]

Hmmm... you know, in "points only"... that IS the league format where I'd be looking to trade Ovechkin.
He's great for multi-cat leagues, but I really only see him in the 75-80pt range.

Is this a "keep all"?

With 18GMs, there's a lot of players here.
12F x 18 = 216F.
Forward #216 is only going to be a 30pt scorer (maybe!).
This means Ovechkin is a relative +50pt player (at 80pts) vs. F#216.
This means Barkov is a relative +35pt player (at 65pts) vs. F#216. (I value Barkov as a 65pt forward in the foreseeable future)

4D x 18 = 72D.
Defense #72 is only going to be a 25pt scorer (maybe!).
This means Weber is a relative +25pt player (at 50pts) vs. D#72.

Ovechkin (+50)
vs.
Barkov (+35) & Weber (+25)


The numbers suggest that Barkov/Weber IS the better return in a 18-team "keep all", counting 12F/4D per team.
I think you have to strongly be considering making this trade.

Much of it leans on how likely it is for your team to compete.
With 18-teams, you really have to be a top 5 team to have a chance to win the league.
If you are not in that top 5, you should consider re-building a bit... and Weber/Barkov is a pretty good return in such a DEEP league.

Tough call... you have to know where your team stacks up in this league vs. other teams.

I always try to do the same thing when evaluating deals, but I think there's a couple factors that need further consideration for your analysis.

1. Barkov as a 65 point forward? I think it's a few years until we see that consistently. I think the odds of Ovy putting up over 80 are greater (but I know you're especially down on Ovy -- so that's understandable). Long term (as you mentioned), this might wash out closer, but long term anything can happen -- this team looks built to win now (with Giroux, Ovy, Toews, a pretty studly D group for this size of league, and elite Gs).
2. Weber is +25 in terms of his league and averages, but he's probably not +25 considering he already owns 4 defensemen that are considerably better than average. The only way Weber is a significant upgrade here is if he can move Leddy/Wiz for improvement elsewhere -- otherwise, he's throwing that asset away.

[Call of Doughty]

I guy's just want to have your input, received an offer my Ovy and a late pick for Alexander Barkov and Shea Weber. I know it sounds crazy but Ovy is slowing down and is always a risk of going back to KHL. Barkov is one of the best prospect wich can have a great season 50 pts maybe more and Weber is around 50 pts also with the addition of Neal he can collect a few more assist. I don't think i'm loosing mutch, what do you guy's think? Should i do it?

If you dress all players weekly, I might consider this deal, but if it's a dress 6-8 F, then no way would I take the deal. Perhaps put your league settings in your signature. Weber is a nice addition to your defence which could use some help. But Ovie is one of your best forwards. Gun to my head, I'd pass and hold Ovie.

[Pengwin7]

I always try to do the same thing when evaluating deals, but I think there's a couple factors that need further consideration for your analysis.

1. Barkov as a 65 point forward? I think it's a few years until we see that consistently. I think the odds of Ovy putting up over 80 are greater (but I know you're especially down on Ovy -- so that's understandable). Long term (as you mentioned), this might wash out closer, but long term anything can happen -- this team looks built to win now (with Giroux, Ovy, Toews, a pretty studly D group for this size of league, and elite Gs).
2. Weber is +25 in terms of his league and averages, but he's probably not +25 considering he already owns 4 defensemen that are considerably better than average. The only way Weber is a significant upgrade here is if he can move Leddy/Wiz for improvement elsewhere -- otherwise, he's throwing that asset away.

Yes... I agree.
This is why I said that the OP has to evaluate his condition.

IF his team doesn't have a realistic shot to win in the next 2-3 years... then why hold Ovechkin? His numbers are only going to decline.
Barkov's numbers ARE going to rise.
And if Florida is bad again... this team is looking at Barkov + Huberdeau + Bjugstad + McDavid/Eichel (possibly?) + Ekblad... their PP is going to be dope.

So... IF this guys' team is NOT competitive right now... then this is apretty good piece for the future.
Also - there's no lock that Nick Leddy continues to keep putting up points.
If we are looking at 2-3 years down the road... then Leddy might sing elsewhere and score less... as CHI has Adam Clendening in the pipeline... basically a better version of Leddy, IMO.

[STONE.]

... as CHI has Adam Clendening in the pipeline... basically a better version of Leddy, IMO.

I hope you're right on this one. He's definitely a cheaper version of Leddy, which could work in his favor considering the Hawks's cap situation. I think he can put up points, but I'm worried about his ability to stop other teams from doing so.

[Pengwin7]

I hope you're right on this one. He's definitely a cheaper version of Leddy, which could work in his favor considering the Hawks's cap situation. I think he can put up points, but I'm worried about his ability to stop other teams from doing so.

Agree again.
CHI's top four is set. So Leddy is a 3rd-pairing defenseman. When his contract is up, CHI will have to let him walk... and Leddy will chase that one contract that sets a hockey player for life.
CHI will be cap crunched so Clendening moves in. I shouldn't have said "better version", with regards to REAL-NHL value... sometimes that gets mixed up... I simply meant he can replicate Leddy's points from the 3rd D-pair and PP2 (since that is what the OP's league is about "points only"). I can actually see Leddy as one of those rare guys that gets a tendered RFA that CHI can't match and won't.

Sorry for any confusion on Leddy vs. AC.

[Canucks_fan18]

In this case it's not about if its a bad trade or not, its more about what you can get for a legitamite top 10 scoring asset in your league. I think you can do better then Barkov and Weber expically with D not being a weakness. I would be targeting a top 20 forward, a tier 2/3 forward (50-60 point guy with upside) and a pick/prospect

[STLblues]

since its not a straight forward points only as G and A are separated out...I think anytime you have an asset that is consistently the number one player in a catagory such as OVI is with goals you want to keep that asset.

[ds760]

Lets not forget there is no way he's not going to play a more defensively responsible game with Trotz in town now. His numbers will most certainly take a hit and they have been declining over the last few years. 9.5 million reason isn't a factor for him to stay in the NHL he'll easily get triple that in dollars and reasons to play in the KHL. I'd try to get as much as you can for him this off season because he'll be taking a hit for sure in points as he will have no choice but to play a 2 way game or ride the pine. His dumb attitude of my job is to score goals then watch everyone else continue playing is over. Lets not forget his buddy Grabovski is gone too and he's not happy about it.

[newfcollins]

Lets not forget there is no way he's not going to play a more defensively responsible game with Trotz in town now. His numbers will most certainly take a hit and they have been declining over the last few years. 9.5 million reason isn't a factor for him to stay in the NHL he'll easily get triple that in dollars and reasons to play in the KHL. I'd try to get as much as you can for him this off season because he'll be taking a hit for sure in points as he will have no choice but to play a 2 way game or ride the pine. His dumb attitude of my job is to score goals then watch everyone else continue playing is over. Lets not forget his buddy Grabovski is gone too and he's not happy about it.

Didn't Ovi just lead the league in goals? And come in the top 10 in points? And was a point-per-game player? I don't know if I would say that constitutes his numbers taking a hit.

Let's not forget that Dale Hunter tried to turn Ovi into a much better defensive player, and it didn't work out. The team struggled to make the playoffs, and scored just 29 goals in 14 playoff games. Ovi never saw a lot of ice time in the playoffs.

The final factor in all of this is that Ovi still sells out the arena, and had the fourth-best selling jersey this last season.

There's also no way the Capitals would let Ovi go to the KHL. The Devils did because they wanted to get out from that massive contract. No way Washington does the same.