Dobber Guide 2011-12

[Dobber]

One thing I noticed just now is that in the Anaheim section under the part where you profile Kurtis Foster you wrote

"plucked from waivers if one of Barker or Visnovsky get hurt"

I'm guessing you meant Fowler. Not really that big a deal, but just something to throw into the editing list for your next update.

That was fixed last update

[Dobber]

Montreal Predictions (pg. 64):
Price 42 wins

Team Standings Predictions (pg. 105):
Montreal 41 wins

Story?

I will adjust Price down to 41.

[Skate or Die]

Which skater and goalie stats are projected in this guide? Never bought it before, but just might...

[buhockey13]

It specifically projects: GP, G, Pts, PIM, W, SO

However, I would be incorrect in saying that it only provides those... the wealth of information in this guide gives you an idea to extrapolating other stats and thought specific numbers aren't given you can certainly use that information to rank or assess different players.

[Celly]

When is the preseason draft list coming out? It says its been updated on September 6th but I only get the "Hold your Horses" doc. Any idea?

[Killer67]

Montreal Predictions (pg. 64):
Price 42 wins

Team Standings Predictions (pg. 105):
Montreal 41 wins

Story?

I will adjust Price down to 41.

To be safe, better adjust Montreal up to 42 wins instead.

[Killer67]

When is the preseason draft list coming out? It says its been updated on September 6th but I only get the "Hold your Horses" doc. Any idea?

It's there, I've been using it for weeks. Try some of the other download links to see if it's under a different one.

[Celly]

Thanks man, It wasnt under the write heading but it was there.

[ether]

Dobbs,

Finally getting a chance to read through the guide and noticed this in the Nashville notes:

I don't think the team will rush Ellis. I do, however, think he is too good to not at least get a sniff. I think the seven spot on the point will rotate between Josi, Lebda and Ellis. Lebda will see a lot of press box, while Josi and Ellis will be up and down (to the AHL) like yo-yos. Ellis will show enough this year to become a full-timer a year from now.

Lebda was actually bought out: http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=303

[Go Ducks]

On Page 36

Dobber’s lowdown on: Kurtis Foster – Despite last season, there is still promise in Foster. Clearly, the big man is one dimensional and that dimension is offense. But he thrives on situational ice time. He can’t be a second-unit PP QB. And that’s what he is right now. He is probably not worth drafting, but should be immediately plucked from waivers if one of Barker or Visnovsky get hurt. When that happens, he’ll be a top producing defenseman…otherwise he’s a useless fantasy own.

Ducks don't have Barker. I assume you mean Fowler. Please correct in your next update.

[Pasha]

What are the 3YP and LT projections for D Ian White (Detroit)?

[Pengwin7]

Dobber - can your provide some thoughts on the Team Predictions vs. Goalie Wins Predictions. There is a little bit of inconsistency. I'm not going to ask that the goalies for each team total exactly to your team win totals... but they should all be close... at least within 5.

Note: I won't publish your goalie wins totals since somebody should really buy the guide to get this value.

Team-by-Team:
Anaheim 45W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 43 wins. -2
Comment Please... especially the UNDER is inconsistent.

Boston 44 W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 51 wins. +7
Comment Please

Buffalo 44W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47 wins.
-

Calgary 40W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 43 wins.
-

Carolina 38W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 48wins. +10
Comment Please

Chicago 43W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 40wins or 46wins.
(I understand & agree)

Colorado 29W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 40wins. +11
Comment Please

Columbus 36W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 45wins +9
Comment Please

Dallas 37W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 44wins +7
Comment Please

Detroit 45W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 49wins.
-

Edmonton 31W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 33wins.
-

Florida 30W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 39wins. +9
Comment Please

Los Angeles 48W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 49wins.
-

Minnesota 38W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 41wins.
-

Montreal 41W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 45wins.
-

Nashville 44W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 45wins.
-

New Jersey 44W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47wins.
-

NY Islanders 40W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: ~
(I wouldn't ask anybody to try and explain the NYI goalie situation. That's just mean)

NY Rangers 45W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 46wins.
-

Ottawa 35W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 39wins.
-

Philadelphia 46W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47-50wins.
(I understand this one too)

Phoenix 36W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47wins. +11
Comment Please

Pittsburgh 52W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 50wins. -2
Comment Please... especially the UNDER is inconsistent.

San Jose 47W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47wins.
-

St.Louis 42W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 47wins.
-

Tampa Bay 45W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 43wins. -2
Comment Please... especially the UNDER is inconsistent.

Toronto 39W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 44wins.
-

Vancouver 51W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 60wins. +9
(Edit: I understand this one based on the "Notes"/mid-season speculation)

Washington 51W (per pg. 106)
Goalie Predictions: Add to 50wins. -1
Comment Please... especially the UNDER is inconsistent.


I really think the NHL predicted final standings on pg. 106 is very, very good.
I think that is a good "base" for predicting the goalie win totals.
However, I'd love to see all of the goalie totals be +0 to +5 above your predicted final standings.

I always feel bad criticizing/request because there is nothing out there better than your guide.
As a math guy, I just love consistency and explanation when the consistency goes off-course.

Thanks,
Pengwin7

[ross10019]

Dobber, have always wondered why you bother to include a page with LAST YEAR's pre-season points standings. If anything, more relevant would be last year's regular season and playoff totals, not pre-season. any particular reason? I find that page to be of almost no value compared to the rest of the guide, but maybe I'm missing something.

[wendelclark17]

Dobber, have always wondered why you bother to include a page with LAST YEAR's pre-season points standings. If anything, more relevant would be last year's regular season and playoff totals, not pre-season. any particular reason? I find that page to be of almost no value compared to the rest of the guide, but maybe I'm missing something.

I just assume that he puts it their to remind us that pre-season scoring stats mean very little when it comes to predicting the season ahead. After all Chris Campoli was tied for third last season with 8 points in 5 games and then managed 21 in 77 games during the regular season

[Teeps]

never mind