Edmonton Oilers

[kovalchuk17]

Top 4 D-man and not a goalie would be the dream? It’s gotta at least be a goalie right?

Quoted for Emphasis

[SeaDawg]

Top 4 D-man and not a goalie would be the dream? It’s gotta at least be a goalie right?

I get the sense that the Campbell signing is a foregone conclusion, so I am saying that if they can get Campbell AND a top 4 dman, it would be a dream off-season.

[The Comish]

I get the sense that the Campbell signing is a foregone conclusion, so I am saying that if they can get Campbell AND a top 4 dman, it would be a dream off-season.

I'm hoping they can convince Campbell to sign a team friendly-ish deal so they can still have enough to maybe find an adequate replacement for the blueline through trade preferably - not liking the UFA D options at the moment. Doesn't need to be a big offensive blueliner, Barrie, Bouchard and Nurse can take turns on PP1, we really could use an actual tough to play against defenseman. Still need Broberg to continue to grow into a top 4 D, but for it to happen next year is likely asking for too much.

[metaldude26]

Lots of rumours around Campbell to Edmonton, and lots of rumours that someone will table a 5 year $5M AAV offer. Hard not to connect the dots that Edmonton is likely making this plunge, with Kuemper rumoured to WSH and TOR trading for Murray. Does the number of landing spots drying up drive the price down a bit for EDM when they can officially make an offer? Would be nice. Holland has long had a philosophy that you "don't pay for goalies outside the top-5" but does he wiggle on that after missing out on Markstrom and Kuemper in B2B offseasons? I am skeptical about Campbell but would like him at a price that allows spending elsewhere. And hell, if Murray can be dumped on Toronto, then I guess anything can happen.

*

As for defense, Holland has proclaimed they are leaving spots open for young guys to emerge. Broberg is probably 1st in line, but they also like Samorukov (waiver eligible), Niemelainen (got his feet wet last season), and Vincent Desharnais. Since the coach had all these guys in Bakersfield, he knows what he has and can likely vouch for them. Going with two young defensemen means signing a depth guy (maybe Russell comes back again) and a vet for the left side on P2 or P3. I suspect they want Kulak back since he was AWESOME on P3 and showed he could move up in a pinch. Still dicey, to go with this strategy, but it allows them to pinch a few pennies on D to spend elsewhere. If they did trade Barrie, however then maybe a bigger splash on defense is to come.

*

At forward, I'm not into Connor Brown if it means trading Puljujarvi. Still don't get these rumours. I am fine if Kane wants to head elsewhere. His signing was the perfect short term fling to get the Oilers over their hump last season, but he's proven unreliable. I don't even know what length of contract would be reasonable because anything short and Kane could be surly but at least he'd be expendable. Anything long and well he's too old for long term and seems to always wear out his welcome. If you could promise me Kane from the playoff run for the next 3 seasons, then I'd give him the full boat of money and term and just deal with the final X number of years, but as with Clarkson, Lucic, and on down the line, you're lucky if you get a good 3 months, and that's from players without character concerns. Give me Mason Marchment as a replacement. See what he can do in a top-6 role.

[Feenom]

Like the Campbell signing but now a D or 2 to help him out back there. Maybe a guy like Rutta?

[lobo1969]

I'll have to warm up to this Campbell singing. I'm not sold on the term and AAV.

[Feenom]

Like the Campbell signing but now a D or 2 to help him out back there. Maybe a guy like Rutta?

Got Kulak back, that’s good.

[lobo1969]

Got Kulak back, that’s good.

Oilers maintain that 'bend but don't break' D corp. Barrie sticks around for now. And hopefully the ascension of Broberg this year works out.

[blayze]

Damn... Kane and Soup. Oilers looking good next year.

[tweetdrivr]

Damn... Kane and Soup. Oilers looking good next year.

Not really, no.

[metaldude26]

My previous post basically all happened, so I suppose I'm neutral on this offseason.

I like Campbell, but not at this term. Everyone wants certainty at this position given the uncertainty the Oilers have experienced here since, what, Curtis Joseph in the late 90's? But the nature of the position is uncertain, so paying higher dollars and term doesn't guarantee you anything but less flexibility. I don't know if it was an option, but I'd have preferred to throw dollars at Samsonov on a shorter deal. The Oilers outbid Toronto for Campbell, they couldn't have done similar for Samsonov? The slam dunk wasn't there. Hell, who is a slam dunk in this league outside of Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin?

But I do like Campbell and like him or not, he's the goalie, so time to start rooting for him. And hopefully Skinner can grab enough starts to avoid burning him out. Maybe this team will even be good enough with Woodcroft in charge and a deeper group after the other re-signings that the Oilers can be a team that actually props up a goalie. Probably too much wishful thinking there.

*

Kulak returning is huge. I'm still not certain that he's a perfect fit that allows them to insulate onboarding two rookie defensemen, but he was an obvious fit with this team and with where the league is headed with regard to mobile defensemen. I was hoping for a little less on the AAV, but considering every bumbling defenseman who got $4M AAV today, Kulak is a bargain.

*

Kane returning is impossible to not be conflicted about. You can't really know who or what the guy is really about, just what is reported, but I don't trust him. On the other hand, if we were strictly talking about the player, good gravy, and the cap hit is tollerable.

*

That leaves the Oilers with a lineup of:

Kane - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Hyman
Foegele - McLeod - Yamamoto
Holloway - Shore - Ryan

Nurse - Bouchard
Broberg - Ceci
Kulak - Barrie
Koekkoek - Samorukov

Campbell - Skinner

All for a cap hit of ~76.5M, which leaves just shy of $6M to spend on the RFAs. It also assumes that:

-Smith and Klefbom live on LTIR for the season.
- Koekkoek occupies the 8th defenseman role but he can be buried for nothing so maybe a cheaper/comparable option is there instead. I'm guessing it'll be someone else but perhaps not cheaper.
- Broberg and Samorukov win the two defense slots that are open for rookies. Samorukov is here because he needs to clear waivers. Broberg because he is "golden boy" status, though Holland likes to over-ripen prospects so penciling in even one rookie is ambitious. It just feels like they don't really have other options. It could be Niemelainen and/or Desharnais or maybe there's another shoe to drop.
- Skinner is the backup not a pricier vet stopgap.
- Holloway is on the roster, but I'd bet he starts out in the minors. Maybe this slot is a Tyler Benson or maybe a couple of cheap veterans to fill the 12th and 13th forward slots. It's almost a certainty that Shore won't be an every day regular, so count on a couple of cheap vet signings here.

Is $6M enough to re-sign Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and McLeod? Assuming you can pinch McLeod, this still feels about a million short of what's needed. That has me feeling like we may yet see the dreaded Puljujarvi trade that cannot possibly be won.

[Invictus]

Don't forget ~3.4m in Buyout for Sekera and Neal

[metaldude26]

Don't forget ~3.4m in Buyout for Sekera and Neal

The buyouts, Lucic retention and last year's cap overages (basically $5M altogether) were all included in my calculations above.

[Invictus]

Gotcha.
Maybe they can do a small bridge deal.
After this season Lucic and Sekera are off the books - that's another 2.25m. Hopefully no overages either...

[Axeman33]

My previous post basically all happened, so I suppose I'm neutral on this offseason.

I like Campbell, but not at this term. Everyone wants certainty at this position given the uncertainty the Oilers have experienced here since, what, Curtis Joseph in the late 90's? But the nature of the position is uncertain, so paying higher dollars and term doesn't guarantee you anything but less flexibility. I don't know if it was an option, but I'd have preferred to throw dollars at Samsonov on a shorter deal. The Oilers outbid Toronto for Campbell, they couldn't have done similar for Samsonov? The slam dunk wasn't there. Hell, who is a slam dunk in this league outside of Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin?

But I do like Campbell and like him or not, he's the goalie, so time to start rooting for him. And hopefully Skinner can grab enough starts to avoid burning him out. Maybe this team will even be good enough with Woodcroft in charge and a deeper group after the other re-signings that the Oilers can be a team that actually props up a goalie. Probably too much wishful thinking there.

*

Kulak returning is huge. I'm still not certain that he's a perfect fit that allows them to insulate onboarding two rookie defensemen, but he was an obvious fit with this team and with where the league is headed with regard to mobile defensemen. I was hoping for a little less on the AAV, but considering every bumbling defenseman who got $4M AAV today, Kulak is a bargain.

*

Kane returning is impossible to not be conflicted about. You can't really know who or what the guy is really about, just what is reported, but I don't trust him. On the other hand, if we were strictly talking about the player, good gravy, and the cap hit is tollerable.

*

That leaves the Oilers with a lineup of:

Kane - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Hyman
Foegele - McLeod - Yamamoto
Holloway - Shore - Ryan

Nurse - Bouchard
Broberg - Ceci
Kulak - Barrie
Koekkoek - Samorukov

Campbell - Skinner

All for a cap hit of ~76.5M, which leaves just shy of $6M to spend on the RFAs. It also assumes that:

-Smith and Klefbom live on LTIR for the season.
- Koekkoek occupies the 8th defenseman role but he can be buried for nothing so maybe a cheaper/comparable option is there instead. I'm guessing it'll be someone else but perhaps not cheaper.
- Broberg and Samorukov win the two defense slots that are open for rookies. Samorukov is here because he needs to clear waivers. Broberg because he is "golden boy" status, though Holland likes to over-ripen prospects so penciling in even one rookie is ambitious. It just feels like they don't really have other options. It could be Niemelainen and/or Desharnais or maybe there's another shoe to drop.
- Skinner is the backup not a pricier vet stopgap.
- Holloway is on the roster, but I'd bet he starts out in the minors. Maybe this slot is a Tyler Benson or maybe a couple of cheap veterans to fill the 12th and 13th forward slots. It's almost a certainty that Shore won't be an every day regular, so count on a couple of cheap vet signings here.

Is $6M enough to re-sign Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and McLeod? Assuming you can pinch McLeod, this still feels about a million short of what's needed. That has me feeling like we may yet see the dreaded Puljujarvi trade that cannot possibly be won.

You and I are definitely on the same train of thought. I may be a tad hirer on Campbell than you but I can appreciate where you're coming from. Goalies are too hard to predict but I love Campbell's old-school style of tending.

I'm still expecting a trade to gain something back for not being able to keep everyone. I'm not as high on Yamamoto as many. If they're trading anyone, he'd be my choice. No matter who they move, they're going to lose that trade. I hope I'm wrong but I'm skeptical.