Stellar collection of statistics.
I absolutely love the effort you put into this article... but I'm going to play devil's advocate because (from watching Semin) there are a lot of things this guy does that won't be picked up in the statistics.
Painting the Stats:
1. Semin + teammates. Yes, Semin is an offensive player and he should increase the overall scoring of players around him. This is a given and I think you spent too much time showing an obvious.
2. Semin without Ovechkin/Backstrom. Still does well by +/-... true. I really don't remember much here about another obvious: that teams will match their top defensive units against OV/Backs and that leaves Semin with easier defensive match-ups.
3. SOGs. Like Kovalchuk, Semin is a big of a puck hog. Yes, he's got the skills do to it and fires pucks from everywhere, so sure... his shot rate in dangerous zone will be high. And his shot differential (when building in the fact that he won't be marked by opponents top competition) will seem great.
Beyond the Stats:
1. Semin is like a bad shag, sort of all over the place without his partners knowing how to adapt or what to expect. Average-tier players have never found good chemistry with him. That's the difference between a Datsyuk or a Sedin or a MSL. Guys that play with these other guys can learn their games and know the crafty moves that are coming... what passes to expect. Nobody can read Semin... that's great for defenders, but equally bad for his own linemates.
2. Shift changes. Watch this guy change. He'll change at shitty times, often coming back down ice. Players that grew up playing the game "right" know that you change on a dump or with puck possession. Semin doesn't do this. Teammates chew him for things like this. It's annoying. In the real-hockey-world (I know a lot of us don't live there), shit likes this is unnerving. Semin could rush the puck, take a shot on net that goes wide, dog it back, and change with the other team attacking. If the other team spends 15 seconds in the attacking zone and then scores, Semin doesn't get a minus because he's sitting on the pine, sucking wind.
3. Penalty killing. Statistically, Semin's past few seasons of PK-work "look" fantastic. 0GF, 1GA in 11-12, 2GF, 4GA in 10-11, 3GF, 3GA in 09-10.
This part got me the most:
Over the last four years, Semin has also proven himself to be an excellent penalty killer. His 4.2 goals against per 60 minutes is in the top 10 lowest among forwards during that period, and he has kept opponents to 44 shots against per 60 when he has been on the ice, 26th best.
But how much actual killing time did he spend there:
2009-2010: 70min (9th among Capital forwards)
2010-2011: 61min (8th among Capital forwards)
2011-2012: 1min... yes just 1minute of PK time... for the entire season.
Let's think... if you are the 8th or 9th penalty-killing forward on your team, which part of the penalty are you killing?
The first 40 second shift... no.
The second 40 second shift... no.
Perhaps the last 10 seconds... yes, that's probably where these players get their time.
And in the last two years of playoffs, Semin has killed a grand total of
4 seconds of PK time. Four seconds. Two different playoffs, two different coaches... 4 seconds of PK time. To be honest, if a guy is going to get 4 seconds of PK time in his last 23 playoff games - there should be absolutely NO accolades for his PK game.
The point of your article seems to look at Semin and justify that he is a quality overall NHL player. You've located some numbers that work to your argument while completely skating by some of the statistics that prove a lessened value (like only 11 PPP in his 194min of PP time last year).
I'm very critical of lengthy articles that pick statistical evaluators that only support the intended interpretation of the message.
Overall, I'd definitely give you an
A++ for your work & effort on this one.
As for making a fair evaluation of this guy's full game... ugh, you skipped a lot.