H2H one-year top 50 list!

[hofforr]

I don't write a lot but I'm on vacation and I'm sitting in clothing stores as my wife tries on clothing so I thought I would cut-and-paste my stud forward list into an email, write some comments, and let you guys dissect it. I'll try to respond to every comment because at this ridiculously-early point its more about the debate than about actually nailing your list perfectly.

Rankings based on standard Yahoo cats (G,A,PPP, ±, SHP, GWG, shots), a ten-team league, no keepers and my guess at yahoo-positions. I value consistency, off-dayness and I also over-value LW due to the lack of depth. This list will change a little once I know my league's GP for playoffs. I wish Yahoo would allow the final four weeks to be fantasy playoffs and the final two weeks the championships like two years ago.

I call this my studs list because these are all guys I know and at their draft position on my list would be very happy to own.

The "?" reflect guys I really don't know where to slot which usually means I don't draft them.

AO - you'll see a theme of my over-valueing shots in this list. AO may not be the gold standard for everyone anymore but for me with the potential shots dominance and being LW he is still far and away my favourite stud.Â*
DSedin - I think it is critical to grab a wing-stud at the top of a snake draft this year. Great second round stud centres are available but stud wingers are risky.
Perry - again, over-value the stud winger due to the nature of a snake-draft. I'd rather have Perry/Staal than Crosby/Kovalchuk. I used to LOVE grabbing him every year culminated by yahoo's ridiculous pre-ranking last year. Now, you have to pay for him but I'm still interested due to his full package and off-day games played.Â*
Crosby - can't drop him any further than this. If you have zero concern about his concussions, which is silly, I still don't bump him over Daniel
Stamkos? - I actually prefer Malkin to Stamkos in one-years and keepers but the knee injuries are a little concerning. I'll probably flip these guys on my personal draft list due to LW possibility for Malkin. Also, I'm just the slightest bit concerned that St.Loo will play more with Lecav once Downie is good enough for first line duty. Boucher must be hoping that Downie is good enough that defensesÂ* continue to focus on Stamkos even without St.Loo, which will save St.Loo a little bit as he ages
Malkin - just love his talent SO MUCH that I'm a bit of a Malkin homer. He's that pick, there is one every year, that bad leagues are going to under-value and the one smart drafter in that league is going to be all over the message board talking about what a smart drafter he is. Late-round GOLD if you're that lucky.Â*
Hank - too reliable to drop although I hate the low shots total. Enough off-day scheduling to help you fit in a third stud centre most weeks
Ryan - two years ago he was drafted very high by one of our league's savvy drafters and my eyebrow raised. Then he got lw/rw and dominated. Then he had c/lw last year and dominated (and I reached for him at the top of the second round and was very happy with the pick). He's one of those picks that doesn't seem like he's capable of hurting you and at the end of the first round with LW dropping off a cliff and his off-day schedule, I'm reaching again.
Nash - another LW reach. Even if he pots 50 goals he leaves a lot to be desired from a fantasy perspective. But, everything could come together this year (vastly improved ±, ppp and assists with a little less shots)
Getzlaf - the off-day cornerstone. Any team deep in centres needs this guy. This is one of those draft positions that is difficult to justify besides saying "I'm right" and leaving it to the math brains and die-hard fans to justify. Basically, this is a draft position based on relative value to a team, not Getz' personal fantasy value, which gets worse annually.Â* I can't stress enough how right I am about grabbing him before any other centre after him on this list.Â* I'm aware his personal value is probably right around Joe T's and look where I slotted Joe!

2

Staal - if I'm drafting a second round centre it is going to be the one that is always healthy and a shots monster
Dats - probably my real-life man-crush gets in the way here because he isn't a superb fantasy player but that c/lw last year was insane
StLoo - can't drop him any further and a first rounder on most lists. Old and not well-rounded makes him easy to drop in my mind
Kovy? - early draft gamble; I can justify taking two centres early but it really hurts your overall draft. Reach for Kovy or Parise instead in the second and you may find a fourth/fifth round centre stud waiting to be snapped up like Tavares
Parise - there are about 27 teams that he could play on and be a top-five stud, he's on one of the 3 bad teams
Toews - safe and reliable is great in H2H. I don't really expect to land Toews/Backstrom/Kopitar because of where I've slotted Getzlaf and Staal although I've been toying with the idea of getting two centres in the first three rounds. It can work if you downgrade tending and D which I personally hate downgrading but the absolute value of those three stud forwards in the first three rounds will probably carry you to the fantasy playoffs if your non-stud Gs carry more than their weight (like Price and Quick last year)
Backstrom - a great low-second round pick if you landed a winger first round and immense upside
Kopitar - another great low-second pick, reliable like Toews
Zett - he's probably a little low on this list if he gets c/lw but I just find him risky for little knick-knack injuries in H2H. Still, I'd gladly take him anywhere in the second round if he's LW and I drafted a first round centre
Kane? - slight, injured and not well-rounded. I won't be drafting him but he's a place-keeper here

3
Â*
Marleau - hate this guy but with Heater gone and LW status he's good value in the third round
Iggy - I'm a Flames fan, moving on
Heater - I look at that second round and think back to his stud-days when he wasy way better to own than all of those guys and know this is probably a low ranking, but I still can't justify moving him up. He's old and slow, so MKoivu will have to make him look really good to be a good pick. One of those guys I won't pick and probably won't miss
Giroux (if rw) - have you seen this guy play?!Â* Sick. My new favourite young guy.Â* If you think this is too high, think 90 point upside and SHP
Gabo - a risk/reward pick here
Tavares - he's going to go fourth round and lower in most drafts and finish the season solid in the top 20 value-wise. A guy I'm targeting
BRichards - great C shooter, I probably have him too low to get him but wouldn't mind owning him
Kesler - superstar #2C in real life and fantasy, just don't overpay he may regress a little
Sharp - I'm a big fan of his game in real-life but blame the thin LW for his being so high in fantasy
Carter - I think he may end up on line #2 and I'm not buying that he's a dynamic #1C.Â* I think he needs a playmaker to excel.Â* Downgrade him.

4

Hossa - to start last season I thought he looked vintage Jagr. That would be nice for Chicago's season and cup run
Semin? - I've got him really low intentionally yet I could see him traded and exploding. I don't know how to justify this low ranking because if he's LW and healthy I can also justify taking him over Marleau
Lucic - love this kid. I think last year is his new fantasy-floor
Neal - I think John Leclair-type numbers and can't justify dropping him any lower than this. He's going to make a lot of owners very happy. Make sure to talk-up his 2 goal Pittsburgh career-start with fellow owners pre-draft. If you hate this pick, you have to convince yourself that his floor isn't 30 G, 60 Pts and 25 PPP. I see that as the floor on a potentially huge season
Vanek - great LW value here I see a return to 40 goals with horrible periphery stats. That makes him the new Brad Boyes I guess, and now he plays with him!
Mkoivu - I'm a huge fan of his game and I think his SHP comes back a little
MRichards - probably a little low but there are so many great centres. He'll be a good pick wherever he gets taken
JoeT - I hate his fantasy-game and feel bad for him because if he had been drafted and coddled by a great coach instead of beat-up by Boston I think his recent personality transformation could have occurred ten years earlier. Its just the lack of shots and the depth at C that hurts his ranking. Who cares about fantasy though; he's turning into a real player and being rid of Heatley is going to bring good things for Joe and that dressing room come playoff time
Briere (rw?) - this is too low in terms of actual fantasy value but his injury risks still scare me
Kessell - great shooter. Great trade value with Leafs fans.

5

Burrows - a really strong #2LW and there aren't many of those available. In the early mid-rounds I'm going to reach for a reliable #2LW and its going to save me a lot of heartache over the course of the rest of the draft
Hartnell - same as Burrows
Selanne? - great off-day schedule and what an amazing season he's coming off of
Backes - my new Correy Perry. Very well-rounded. An article was just posted about the lack of depth at RW which I don't get. By my count there are at least 25 great #2 RWs but only a handful of #1 RWs and #2 LWs that I really like
Horton - another new Correy Perry
Pavelski - great shooter and will get more PPP this year

I've left quite a few guys I like in the later rounds and my personal darkhorses off of this list but I feel this is a great starting-point for H2H, and one-year leagues and Dobber doesn't like to focus on us one-year poolies.

I guess I'm posting this right-around the draft kit, hopefully Dobber doesn't disagree too strongly with some of my bolder picks.

[kluu]

Marleau - hate this guy but with Heater gone and LW status he's good value in the third round

ahhh...so underappreciated in the fantasy circles. I can see where ppl are coming from though. Though 30+ goals, 10+ PPGs, several SHGs, handful GWGs, 250+ shots is hard to pass up

An article was just posted about the lack of depth at RW which I don't get.

I dont get it either? LW seems waaaaaaaaay more shallow.

[Shoeless]

hofforr - I have just been pounding out a ranking for a 12 team roto league and trying to slot guys into draft rounds. Of course you haven't included D guys or Goalies so I need to adjust accordingly to try and compare our views.

I really think you make some tremendously astute calls. I'm not going to walk through and tell you the one's I agree with - there are too many - so I will just highlight a few calls I disagree with - there are only a few.

I'll take Clowe and Dustin Brown in that 5th round easily, Brown maybe in the 4th. I think you are way late on Backes and Kesler. Too early on Hank and Nash and Marleau - but I get the off day thing and the LW thing so maybe they can stay.

Nice piece of work.

[hofforr]

Kluu - maybe it is also his personality and that really bad year Marleau had recently
Shoeless - Right, no goalies and Dmen. I draft with tiers and not a list but I like lists because it forces you into ranking different positions. My top dman is probably Doughty and he may not even make this list! I don't need to reply about Hank and Nash I know they are high compared to general sentiment. Also, love Brown and Clowe this year and they are just next on the list. Kesler though, don't over-value him, there is a decent chance he cant outperform the centers ranked around him.

[Shoeless]

Yeah you are right about Kesler - I didn't look closely enough at your categories - expanded stats and he is a beast (Hits, Blocks, PIM's, FOW) - he is good enough in your cats and boss in these extended ones to be near the top of the heap.

A ranking system I am playing with for a roto league has him 3rd behind Ovechkin and Letang based on last year's stats. Seems high so looking for the right tweak in the system, but he is definitely up there.

Anyway - like your list - some thoughtful choices.