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Thread: 2011-2012 H2H Player Rankings: Forwards #25-36

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    Default 2011-2012 H2H Player Rankings: Forwards #25-36

    Attached is a PDF of my personal rankings/predictions for 2011-2012 season in a 6-cat H2H league.

    Three years of statistics are provided along with a prediction value.

    I plan to release the following weekly (July & August):
    Week #1: Forwards #01-12
    Week #2: Forwards #13-24, Defensemen #01-12, Goalies #01-06
    Week #3: Forwards #025-036
    Week #4: Forwards #037-048, Defensemen #13-24, Goalies #07-12
    Week #5: Forwards #049-060, Defensemen #25-30, Goalies #13-15
    Week #6: Forwards #061-072, Defensemen #31-36, Goalies #16-18
    Week #7: Forwards #073-084, Defensemen #37-42, Goalies #19-21
    Week #8: Forwards #085-096, Defensemen #43-48, Goalies #22-24
    Week #9: Forwards #097-108, Defensemen #49-54, Goalies #25-27
    Week #10: Forwards #119-120, Defensemen #55-60, Goalies #28-30

    My own comments:
    If Semin plays 68 GP and score 70pts, he should actually be my #19 forward.
    I think this is reasonable. There was a lack of points on WAS's PP (due to Green's injury) that hurt all top WAS players last year. Interestingly, that pesky Semin gets about 70 PIM per year... it can be quite valuable.

    The remainder of this list might be the most interesting group of players for the 2011-2012 season.
    This is the area where my predictions could be WAY off. Great discussion.

    Of statistical note, the player rankings from #26-#36 are 4.44 to 4.24.
    4.44/4.24 = 1.05.
    This means that these player predictions are within 5% of each other.

    In other words, you can look at a player predictions and move them easily to the top of this list or bottom of this list based on whether you think the players numbers will be higher or lower. It is completely up to you.


    This list is so interesting, that I'll use a separate comment box for individual player discussion.
    See below.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Expanded Discussion on Players:

    #26. Jumbo Joe is typically a PPG player. Playing with Setoguchi on the top line may have given SJ more balance to their 2nd line scoring... but I don't think it helped Joe's stats. People think of a goal-scorer as always helpful, but if Seto can't continue the passing flow, the offensive set-up is over. Next season, Joe's RW will be either Havlat or Pavelski - and I think the assist total will return to the 60s since both Havlat and Pavelski are also great passers.

    #27. Heatley could see a nice positional value if he gets LW/RW for 2011-2012. We'll see which wing MIN uses him. Similar to Thornton, Heatley's totals were hurt by SJ placing him on line #2 for the bulk of the season. Couture is a good player, but Mikko Koivu is better. Around mid-season, SJ also shifted Heater to PP#2. He'll be PP#1 in MIN. Even at just 72pts, he's #27.

    #28. Marian Gaborik would fall here if he can hit 38-37-75pts. He should be able to do this in 70games with Brad Richards. Gaborik had only 16PPP last year and this should jump up with B-Rich in NYR.

    #29. Brad Richards. How convenient? I think fantasy owners should consider the double-dip with these two like Sedin-Sedin. They could both explode, which might win you your league. Or, the chemistry might not be there... so you might as well finish last and get a good draft pick.
    They could also collide at mid-ice with each other and both be out for the season.

    #30. Joe Pavelski. My predictions for Pavelski are going to seem high to many people. 75pts in 75games... that's crazy talk! Pavelski put up 39pts in 38games in calendar year 2011 while playing as Line #3 center and PP#1 point. He's probably going to lose PP#1 point to Brent Burns, but he should slide into the RW#1 or RW#2 slot. Pavelski registers a TON of SOG... and last year he was on the low side with 7% SH%. His average is 9% and if he gets 280 SOG @ 9%, he'll put in 25 goals again. With better linemates, I think he could jump from 46A to 50A.

    #31. Anze Kopitar. Kopitar owners know he is one of the most steady producers in the league. If he's healthy, an 80pt season with a bump to at least 25PPP is expected with a healthy Doughty.

    #32. Career season from Dustin Brown... why not? Mike Richards and Dustin Brown should be twin brothers. Gritty do-it-alls. Love 'em. Brown is already a top tier player in leagues that count hits... even without them, I think he'll have his best season. I've got him slated for only 65pts, but LA is so all-around good that I think a +20 is also in the cards.

    #33. Mike Richards. A 3rd LA player in a row - wow this worked out nice?! These are just average stats for Richards... but like everybody else on the list - add a few more PPP or PIM if you think and he'd be the highest guy.

    #34. Jeff Carter. Amazing how this list worked out, eh! Carter typically has really good value in SOG leagues. His +/- is going to take a hit this year, but I think he'll get 70pts.

    #35/#36. Thomas Vanek & Nathan Horton. These are two players who aren't normally considered in the class of the players above - but they have the potential to jump to the top of this list as well.

    #35. Vanek is a pure-sniper, shooting 15% for his career. If Derek Roy can stay healthy & with new touch on the PP point (Ehrhoff), Vanek could get 75pts and be +10 with the improved Buffalo defense.

    #36. Nathan Horton's value in past seasons was much lower than people think. 14, 11, 8 PPP is pretty sad. I don't see that continuing. He's an excellent shooter and David Krejci ice-vision is sensational. I've got Horton pegged for only 60pts and downgraded him to +20. He put up 85 PIM in his first year in Boston and they LOVE GRIT. I can see that PIM exploding up to 100 even and possibly 20 PPP... he'd be a monster.

    What a group!
    Last edited by Pengwin7; July 15, 2011 at 11:28 AM.

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    Outstanding and great follow up elaboration. Keep'em coming.

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    Pengwin - I think this was mentioned earlier by another poster but any outlook on where you will slot Parise (hope I didn't miss him in there)? Does last year's injury knock him that far down?

    Cheers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chili con Carne View Post
    Pengwin - I think this was mentioned earlier by another poster but any outlook on where you will slot Parise (hope I didn't miss him in there)? Does last year's injury knock him that far down?

    Cheers.
    Uh oh.....
    (Thanks for the catch! I have a 2010-2011 spreadsheet of statistics that I've been modifying to "predictions" - I have not yet done Parise... oh no!)

    EDIT
    Just did Parise.
    Score = 4.58. (Good for 20th... right around P-Kane/Semin/MSL/Getzlaf)

    Maybe mods can help me re-attach the PDFs a little later.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; July 15, 2011 at 3:53 PM. Reason: Parise Notes

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