I agree the smart money is on Shattenkirk producing NOW and continuing that trend so signing him to the 3 years deal is probably wisest. Are you guaranteed to lose them after that?
What I keep coming back to is this regarding Carlson...he posted 37 points in his first full season in the NHL while, a) seeing limited PP time, b) shutting down opposing team's best offensive units [and posting over +20], c) on a WAS team where everyone had a 'down' year offensively. He could be a 40-45 point D even in a two-way or shut down role. What could he blossom into if he gains some offensive minutes?
Shattenkirk has the offensive opportunity so smart money is on him for the longer deal. I just keep thinking Carlson is going to find a way to blossom regardless of opportunity.
10 Team [keep 10 + 4 prospects]
Scoring F=1[g/a]; D=2[g], 1[a]; G=2[w], -1[L], 1[OT], 2[SO] Top 12 F, 6 D, 2 G count
Forwards
Crosby, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wheeler, Byfuglien, Hornqvist, Simmonds, Ladd, Zuccarello, Ribeiro, Desharnais, Semin, MacArthur, Moulson, Purcell, Soderberg, Dupuis
Defense
Keith, Goligoski, Carlson, Krug, Trouba, Streit, Pouliot, Ceci, Nurse, Martinez
Goalie
Fleury/Price/Rask