[Roto Breakdown] Submit a player

[GMGates]

Burns and JJ with league 1 settings in my siggy.

Brent Burns

This past season, Burns had a career year and made us remember the promise he displayed a few years back. Posting 17G, 46 points, 98 PIMs, 170 SOG, 133 Hits and 106 Blocks - he made his fantasy owners proud.

Going deeper, if you combine both of BB's career high seasons (2008-09 and 2010-11), he missed all but two games. The numbers posted were very solid for a d-man. But sandwiched between those two stellar seasons were concussion riddled campaigns ending in sub-par numbers.

Take a look :



What a difference! Obviously playing 56 more games will net you better numbers, but there is something intriguing about this specific case. Can't say that he is a first half or second half player as he stays fairly consistent throughout the season. Same with playing at home or on the road as his point totals are usually split evenly. So what exactly is it?

My take - From the numbers, you can see that when Burns plays "head ache" free - expect a great season. If there are any signs of doubt, you will see it in his overall game. Less shots, less feistiness, less hits, less... well you get the point! If this particular pattern keeps up, we can only assume another two mediocre (injury plagued) seasons, followed by a career season during the third (or better yet, 2013-14). Not very fun for poolies.

GMG 2011-2012 prediction : He will have a good season and break that trend. if healthy expect similar totals, but slightly higher points and slightly lower peripherals. But playing it safe with 74 GP, 14G, 30A, minus-1, 68 PIM, 15 PPP, 150 SOG, 90 Blks.


Jack Johnson

JJ will be making 3.5 million (salary - not cap hit) next season, and half a million less than Burns, but is he worth it? Comparing the two will give you an idea of bang for your buck. This season, Johnson rivalled Burns in points, recording 42 to end the year (or four less). As for peripherals, JJ beat Brent out in power play points (28 to Burns' 14) and Blocks (133 to 106), but that is where it ends.

Johnson lacks PIMs and desperately lacks in plus-minus. In fact, Johnson has yet to post a plus rated season, going minus-21 this season and minus-74 in his five season career. Ouch!

Is he worth it? Depends. Johnson will consistently be a 35 point dman. As far as his peripherals go, it will be one of those "what you see is what you get" type deals. Although for half a million more, give me Burns any day of the week!

Edit : Note that Jackson his been lacking PIMs lately*. He was pretty feisty in the two seasons following his rookie year.

I submit:

The speedy tenacious Dean Youngblood (Hamilton)

Let's see what you got Gates

I'll take a rain check on this one - too late to think of something witty

[jkspartan05]

Gates,

Can you help me decide between keeping Mike Richards and Alex Semin? My league uses your standard roto settings from the top 100 plus faceoff wins and hits. Over the past three years the two have had similar total point output, with semin playing 40 or so less games. You have semin ranked much higher than richards in your top 100 but adding the other two stats how does this affect their value?

Thanks

[dyzfunctioned]

Gates,

Can you help me decide between keeping Mike Richards and Alex Semin? My league uses your standard roto settings from the top 100 plus faceoff wins and hits. Over the past three years the two have had similar total point output, with semin playing 40 or so less games. You have semin ranked much higher than richards in your top 100 but adding the other two stats how does this affect their value?

Thanks

I'm not Gates, but with hits and FOW Richards is miles ahead of Semin.

[GMGates]

I'm not Gates, but with hits and FOW Richards is miles ahead of Semin.

Agreed. In a standard six category setting, both can make a valid case. The moment you add Hits and FOW, you add two categories Semin will never come close to catching up on Richards.

[horrorfan]

I agree that Richards could have the edge adding in those categories. However, if you are going beyond statistical comparison between the two, it might not be as clear cut. How many do you keep? Where are you drafting? Who's likely to go in the first round? Could you get one of those you dropped?

If you think you can re-acquire Richards in the draft, then I might consider keeping Semin due to higher perceived value based on position and offensive upside (in my opinion), and try to get Richards in the draft.

Of course Richards is solid in both FOW and HITS and in terms of simple roto value then Richards might have the edge, but those are two categories you can find in the draft. It's not as easy to find 30+ goal scorers (especially those who are a threat for 40). However, I know that Semin's a bit of a bandaid boy, so it comes down to risk as well.

Anyway, just want you to consider another perspective. Perhaps if you are interested you could post this in the keeper section to get more replies, as I realise that my questions are going beyond the focus of this thread.

[GMGates]

I agree that Richards could have the edge adding in those categories. However, if you are going beyond statistical comparison between the two, it might not be as clear cut. How many do you keep? Where are you drafting? Who's likely to go in the first round? Could you get one of those you dropped?

If you think you can re-acquire Richards in the draft, then I might consider keeping Semin due to higher perceived value based on position and offensive upside (in my opinion), and try to get Richards in the draft.

Of course Richards is solid in both FOW and HITS and in terms of simple roto value then Richards might have the edge, but those are two categories you can find in the draft. It's not as easy to find 30+ goal scorers (especially those who are a threat for 40). However, I know that Semin's a bit of a bandaid boy, so it comes down to risk as well.

Anyway, just want you to consider another perspective. Perhaps if you are interested you could post this in the keeper section to get more replies, as I realise that my questions are going beyond the focus of this thread.

This is an excellent perspective - definitely in line with the thread.

Without knowing the full background of a certain question / situation, you can only tackle the surface.

Like you mentioned, things could easily go either way. Look at the Top 100, both Praba and I have Semin and Richards pretty much neck to neck - Although, that is only considering 6 of the 8 categories.

This thread can be emergent as it comes, if we talk about this specific question for 2 pages, it's fine by me. If the conversation stops and focus turns to another post, so be it.

[jkspartan05]

Thanks for the advise guys. Great insight.

Here is rest of the story....

We keep 6 forwards and one goalie for my team in the signature. At the moment I think my keepers are:

H. Sedin
Z. Parise
T. Hall
C. Giroux
S. Weber
M. Richards or A. Semin
MAF

I finished 4th in the league so I will draft 9th. I fully expect that the first round will be dominated by goalies so there is a chance that either player could be available when my selection comes up.

[horrorfan]

Thanks for the advise guys. Great insight.

Here is rest of the story....

We keep 6 forwards and one goalie for my team in the signature. At the moment I think my keepers are:

H. Sedin
Z. Parise
T. Hall
C. Giroux
S. Weber
M. Richards or A. Semin
MAF

I finished 4th in the league so I will draft 9th. I fully expect that the first round will be dominated by goalies so there is a chance that either player could be available when my selection comes up.

Personally, since you have a small number of keepers, I would keep the guy with the most offensive potential, which in my opinion is Semin, and use the draft to focus on more multiple category players. If you get a chance at Richards in the draft then you could get him. But I feel that someone like Semin would be more sought after early on.

Good luck.

[GMGates]

Personally, since you have a small number of keepers, I would keep the guy with the most offensive potential, which in my opinion is Semin, and use the draft to focus on more multiple category players. If you get a chance at Richards in the draft then you could get him. But I feel that someone like Semin would be more sought after early on.

Good luck.

Semin is a young Gaborik 2.0, expect him to play 65-75 games, but with the potential of missing more. He has the highest upside of the two and he could eventually hit 50G-plus on a good season. I'll agree with horrorfan and say that G/SOG is a better combo to seek (or build around) than HIT/FOW.

Although you can't go wrong with either pick, in fact it is the perfect example of a risk/reward situation. Are you a betting man?

Just make sure you build around the chosen one properly. 1) Richards will hit multiple categories evenly, 2) Semin will focus more on a select few - but do them well.

Tough decision ahead - and just to be opposite, give me Richards.

[horrorfan]

You just have to be different, eh Gates?

Normally I would go with the steady, multiple category contributor. However, in this case, I feel that Semin would be the better option due to Jkspartan's depth and balance, his trade value and potential, especially if Washington opens it up again next season. Sure, it's a risk. Tough call.

Jkspartan, just curious, do you have a sense of who will be the best available skaters in the draft? Or at least at what production level? I wonder if Semin or Richards will be the far superior options, or if some good forwards will be left unprotected due to more D/G being kept. For example, maybe someone else similar to Richards will be available, which would lessen the risk of leaving him unprotected.

[jkspartan05]

This is our first year of the keeper league and some folks have just not gotten on board with the concept so their teams are shallow. I am very deep. I know that there are a number of teams in my league that would significantly benefit from drafting semin or richards.... or thornton or hossa or burrows.

We also have this bogus rule that you can keep a minimum of 4 skaters and get extra draft picks before the first round, so there is a possibility that I may be drafting further back than 9th. I have protested this rule to no avail. It pretty much kills the demand for these shallow teams to trade with the deeper ones before the draft.

Long story short, I think the majority available player will be in the 60 pt. range once I select. 12 teams 4-6 kept, the top 50-70 skaters should be off the board before I draft.

[horrorfan]

Ok, well you are probably in a solid position regardless of which choice you make, as long as you follow your own strategy and keep the depth/balance/categories in mind. You know the advantages/drawbacks of both, so now you have to decide which path you are going to take. Good luck.