Who's the odd man out?

[bernjean]

Salary cap league (real league cap and counting cap hits)
We usually have 6 def spots but we can play up to 7 def if we play 1 less forward. (rules and team in sig).

Since our league count hits and blocked shots, so playing 7 def can be worthwile.

I have all summer to decide, but I want to start reviewing my options.

My defense squad looks like this at the moment:
Pitkanen - FA
Boychuk - signed for 1 more season at 1.875M$
Doughty - RFA
Franson - signed for 1 more season at 800K$
Green - signed for 1 more season at 5.25M$
Bogosian - RFA
Sbisa - signed till 2014-2015 for 2.175M$
Yandle - RFA

Rookies
Brendan Smith
Matt Taormina

I estimated that both Doughty and Yandle would fetch 4M$ to 5.5M$.
Pitkanen could get about the same value, so 4M$.

Now, how much could Bogosian get? I'm hoping something along the line of what Erik Johnson got, so about 2.5M$ for 2 years.

I'm thinking that either Bogosian or Pitkanen (or both) is the odd man out here. Or else, I'll have way too much money commited to the defense.

Could Brendan Smith make it in Detroit out of camp and produce right away?
I can keep him along with Taormina on my minor roster to cover up injuries during the season.

However to absorb all that salary raise, I'll have to drop Eric Staal during the summer. I consider this the move to make since his 8.25M$ is quite high in a salary cap league.

Hopefully Frolik, Voracek and Berglund take the next step and produces enough to compensate.

[WildHendy]

to me Pitkanen is the odd-man out due to injury concerns..i also would hate to see Staal be a drop,can't trade him?He is a top producer and though expemsive,very hard to replace.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I would drop Pitkanen first unless he goes to a team like the Lightning. He will get around 4M and he's not worth it.

After him, I would drop either Boychuk or Sbisa. Like you said, Bogosian will get around 2.5M and he will be way more valuable than either of those guys. Although, Sbisa will be a bargain in a couple of seasons but he is not that valuable right now.

Doughty will probably get 4M to 5M (short-term) but Yandle will get 5M to 6M.

[Magicstew]

Pitkanen would be the one I would drop as well. injury concerns and he could easily be replaced. Hate to have to drop Staal.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I'd opt for Bogosian as the odd man out, or at least seriously consider it. He's talented for sure, and perhaps on a different team could put up a lot better stats. But I think the time window on him jumping big in his stats is probably starting to close somewhat. The best example I'd have for comparison is Coburn on Philly. He entered the league young and much was expected of him year after year until suddenly he's now in his 7th year or so and has yet to clear 35 points in a season. Bogosian is still only 21, but I fear he's headed down a similar path.

[leaftodd]

I'd drop BOTH Pitkanen and Sbisia and use that 6.7 mil to pay staal. One of Smith or Taormina will get full time minutes this year cheaply so that'll cover your back end. Don't drop Staal to keep either Sbisa or Pitkanen.

Cheers

[bernjean]

Warning, long post ahead!

Most say Pitkanen, which is what I had in mind. Even if Bogosian doesn't produce as many points as Pitkanen, he Hits a lot, which is a good thing in my pool. Plus he has the youth factor, which is great for a full keeper.

Here is my dilemma with Staal.

Right now, I'm sitting 7M$ above the cap. That's mainly because I've had a couple injured players that I replaced (Green and Perron).

I have to get under the cap limit by July 1st. To do that, I can either drop Pitkanen and Bogosian, or drop Staal (and possibly trade one of Pitkanen or Bogosian later).

By dropping Pitkanen and Bogosian, I will be right at the cap. If the salary cap increases to 62,3M$ as rumoured, I will not be able to keep Yandle and Doughty, who are going to get hefty raises, unless I drop other players. I will also not be able to keep any of Berglund, Voracek and Frolik.

So, it all comes down to what's better :
Keeping Staal but losing one of Yandle or Doughty (and possibly Frolik and Voracek), who I replace with fillers at the league minimum and hope they play most games

or

I drop Staal and use his 8M$ to keep Yandle, Doughty and one or both of Voracek and Frolik...

This is basically the choices I have.

The thing also is that we have 2 expansion teams coming in. So whoever I drop will get scooped up right away. There also won't be many worthwile league salary minimum players anymore, since they are really valuable in a salary cap league, especially if they produce in Hits and Shots on goal.

To also put things in perspective, Staal was a free agent this year. I picked him up when Datsyuk went down. I was only able to keep him in my lineup because I've had injuries all season long, so I was able to stay under the cap.

Here is my roster with salaries and contract lenghts.
I bolded the players that are RFA or FA.

Pos Name Sal Contract ends
C Staal, Eric - C - CAR 8.250M$ 2013-2014
C Staal, Jordan - C - PIT 4.000M$ 2012-2013
C Krejci, David - C - BOS 3.750M$ 2011-2012
C Berglund, Patrik - C -STL 1.247M$ 2010-2011

LW Datsyuk, Pavel - C,LW - DET 6.700M$ 2013-2014
LW Zetterberg, Henrik- C,LW - DET 6.083M$ 2020-2021
LW Perron, David - LW - STL 2.150M$ 2011-2012
LW Pacioretty, Max - LW - MON 0.910M$ 2010-2011
LW Abdelkader, Justin - LW - DET 0.788M$ 2011-2012

RW Dorsett, Derek - RW - CBJ 0.563M$ 2011-2012
RW Frolik, Michael - LW,RW - CHI 1.275M$ 2010-2011
RW Voracek, Jakub - RW - CBJ 1.271M$ 2010-2011

D Pitkanen, Joni - D - CAR 4.000M$ 2010-2011
D Boychuk, Johnny - D - BOS 1.875M$ 2011-2012
D Doughty, Drew - D- LA 3.475M$ 2010-2011
D Franson, Cody - D - NAS 0.800M$ 2011-2012
D Green, Mike - D - WAS 5.250M$ 2011-2012
D Bogosian, Zach - D - ATL 3.375M$ 2010-2011
D Sbisa, Luca - D - ANA 0.875M$ 2014-2015
D Yandle, Keith - D - PHO 1.200M$ 2010-2011

G Leighton, Michael - G - PHI 1.550M$ 2011-2012
G Mason, Steve - G - CBJ 0.905M$ 2010-2011 (he resigned at 2.9M$)
G Ward, Cam - G - CAR 6.300M$ 2015-2016

TOTAL
66.592M$ -7.192M$ (over the cap)

[Jouko-Pouko]

bernjean, you might be right; you have to drop Eric Staal. I would also think about dropping Jordan Staal since you can move either Datsyuk or Zetterberg to center.

I'm guessing Berglund gets about what Zajac (3.8875M) and Krejci (3.75M) have, so around 3.8M. Pacioretty should get what Setoguchi (1.8M), Dubinsky (1.85M) and Stafford (1.9M) got, so let's say 1.8M. Voracek gets probably what Moulson (2.45M) and Raymond (2.55M) got, so around 2.5M. Frolik gets around 2M as well. Pitkanen could get up to 5M like Martin last year, so he's out. Doughty will get around 4.5M and Yandle will get around 5.5M.

So, your team would look something like this:
C: Datsyuk (6.7M), Krejci (3.75M), Berglund (~3.8M)
LW: Zetterberg (6.083M), Perron (2.15M), Pacioretty (~1.8M), Abdelkader (0.788M)
RW: Dorsett (0.563M), Voracek (~2.5M), Frolik (~2M)
D: Green (5.25M), Doughty (~4.5M), Yandle (~5.5M), Franson (0.8M), Bogosian (~2.5M), Sbisa (2.175M), Boychuk (1.875M)
G: Ward (6.3M), S. Mason (2.9M), Leighton (1.55M)

TOTAL: 63.484M$

Next, I would drop Leighton since I don't think he plays with the Flyers next season (he could be bought out or stuck in the minors). That would put you under the expected cap of 62M but just barely, so you could think about dropping Perron (when will he return and how good will he be then?) or Boychuk in case one of your RFAs gets a long-term contract with a bigger cap hit.

Next you should think about trading Green, Doughty or Yandle for a great RW since your defense is too great.

[bernjean]

I hope you are wrong about Berglund... if he gets about 4M$ I'm in trouble lol.

Thanks for the input!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I hope you are wrong about Berglund... if he gets about 4M$ I'm in trouble lol.

Thanks for the input!

You might be right; let's take another look.

Travis Zajac (62 points): 4 years, 3.9M per year
David Krejci (73 points): 3 years, 3.75M per year
Jordan Staal (49 points): 4 years, 4M per year
Matt Stajan (57 points): 4 years, 3.5M per year
Dave Bolland (47 points): 5 years, 3.4M per year
Alex Steen (47 in 68): 4 years, 3.4M per year
Mikko Koivu (42 points): 4 years, 3.25M per year
Derick Brassard (36 points): 4 years, 3.2M per year
Stephen Weiss (48 points): 6 years, 3.1M per year
Mikhail Grabovski (48 points): 3 years, 2.9M per year

Berglund had 52 points this year. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he had 3-4 years for 3-3.5M per year. If I had to take a guess (I don't but I want to ) I would say 3 years, 3.2M per year.

[Atomic Wedgy]

I still believe there should be a salary cap league section on this forum. I have no idea what I am talking about here, so I dare not comment. I click on plenty of threads that give me the same "I dont know what I'm talking about" feeling.

Salary cap leagues are so different than other leagues they deserve their own section.

[bernjean]

bernjean, you might be right; you have to drop Eric Staal. I would also think about dropping Jordan Staal since you can move either Datsyuk or Zetterberg to center.

Next, I would drop Leighton since I don't think he plays with the Flyers next season (he could be bought out or stuck in the minors). That would put you under the expected cap of 62M but just barely, so you could think about dropping Perron (when will he return and how good will he be then?) or Boychuk in case one of your RFAs gets a long-term contract with a bigger cap hit.

Next you should think about trading Green, Doughty or Yandle for a great RW since your defense is too great.

Just an update on this situation!

I think I have found a way to keep Staal for now in my team and not drop him for nothing.

By dropping/trading Pitkanen, Boychuck and Leighton, I'm getting my salary cap under the 59,4M$. This allows me to evaluate my options and wait for the new contracts to get signed.

I could then trade one of my big salary players to one of the expansion teams, who will need star power, instead of dropping them.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Just an update on this situation!

I think I have found a way to keep Staal for now in my team and not drop him for nothing.

By dropping/trading Pitkanen, Boychuck and Leighton, I'm getting my salary cap under the 59,4M$. This allows me to evaluate my options and wait for the new contracts to get signed.

I could then trade one of my big salary players to one of the expansion teams, who will need star power, instead of dropping them.

Nice work! That sounds like a really smart move.

[dino_2000_22]

Pitkanen is odd man out easily, especially if blocked shots is a part of the deal of playing the 7th D man....he does not PK to often and is often on the IR...plus being a UFA u never know if he will be around or go overseas??