[San Jose Sharks] Player Report : Devin Setoguchi

[bballplyr321]

I have noticed over the last couple of years that the opinions of Devin Setoguchi have absolutely taken a nose dive. Even during his magical 2008-2009 season, there were concerns about the fact that Seto might not be anything more than Cheechoo Jr, or a product of his time playing with Joe Thornton. And to an extent, I will definitely give in to that idea. But honestly, who would not benefit from playing with Jumbo Joe?

In 2008-2009, Setoguchi had 65 points in 81 games or 0.81 points per game. For the vast majority of that season, he played on the wing with Thornton and Marleau, both of whom are very good passers in their own right. This was reflected in a career high in points, goals, assists and SOG. In 2009-2010, Seto took a dive to 36 points in 70 games or just over 0.5 points per game. But something that often times gets overlooked is the fact that he started out the season red hot with 9 points in his first 10 games including 2 multi goal efforts and 3 multi point efforts. In those 10 games, he took 35 shots. In game 11 of the season, he took a Kovy slapshot off the foot and from there, his season took a turn for the worst. Coming back after 17 days off, he had an assist in his first game and then went pointless over the next 10 games. In those 10 games he took a total of 11 sog. 11. That is just over 1 shot per game. Blame it on the fact that he was not with Thornton. Blame it on the idea that he came back too early from an injury. Regardless, you cannot score if you do not shoot. Now, fast forward to the end of the season and the playoffs. Specifically, the first round series with Col. Over 6 games, he had 3 goals, 3 assists and took a whooping 33 SOG. An average of 5.5 SOG per game. Do I think that 5.5 sog is going to be the norm for Seto? No, not a chance in the world. But he is also not going to average 1.1 sog either. Something to consider, in 2008-2009, Setoguchi had 4 or more sog 32 times. He had points in 17 of those games. in 2009-2010, Seto had 4 or more sog 15 times. In those 15 games, he scored at least a point in 12. So far in 2010-2011, Seto has had 4 or more sog 17 times and he has scored at least a point in 11 of those. What does that say? Well if he shoots, he is going to score. Pretty obvious right? There is one thing that has remained constant throughout the last three years. Setoguchi has had an average shooting percentage of 12.3% with a standard deviation of 0.35%. For those of you that have no idea what that mean, the smaller the standard deviation, the more consistent the number. Statistical analysis says that for every 8 shots that Setoguchi takes, he is going to have 1 goal. So shoot Seto, shoot.

So what does all that say? Well, playing with Joe definitely had an effect on Seto. He got him more opportunity and that gave him more chances to take shots which meant that he is going to score more. This season, Seto has not played with Thornton much but over the last handful of games, he has. Surprise, surprise, there seems to be a pretty sharp upturn in the number of shots taken. Over the last 7 games, Seto has taken 4 or more shots 6 times. And in those 7 games, he has points in 6 of those as well. BUT, and I cannot stress this enough, his play over the last 15+ games has been amazing. He was not given a chance at Thornton’s line, he EARNED it. Two years ago, Setoguchi waited for Thornton to set him up. Over the last 7 games, Setoguchi has just taken over at times. It all came to a head last night for me personally. The Sharks squeaked by against a poor Colorado team but without a doubt, Setoguchi was the best player on the ice. He was moving and creating. He played well against the boards and used his speed to put pressure on the defense. And most importantly for Sharks fans, he has pushed Thornton rather than letting Joe push him. Honestly, Thornton has played his best hockey over the last 5 games. It has been an amazing sight to watch and if you ask me, the emergence of Seto has really been a driving factor in the Sharks recent hot streak.

With the way that he has started to play lately, I really like Seto for, at the very least, the near future. Am I going to say that you should go out and get him and anticipate 70 points next year? No. If you do not have him on your roster right now, you are probably too late to go get him. But if he is on your team or sitting on the ww as he is in 65% of Yahoo leagues, I would encourage you to pick him up and ride out this hot spell. I will tell you, he is not Cheechoo Jr. I put his one year number at 60 points and his ceiling around 70-75 points with 30-35 goals over the next couple of years. He is an RFA this offseason but Doug Wilson had a chance to move him and chose not to. He loves this kid and sees him in the long term plans for the Sharks even if that means he is going to have to move salary over the offseason to make it work.

Well I hope that this helps. I wish you all the very best of luck. And if you have any Sharks related questions, check out the thread and drop me a line:
http://www.dobberhockey.com/index.ph...ad.php&t=97275

[fajita123]

Great write up.

[metaldude26]

This is some excellent research.

[mister_mcgoo]

nice write up dude, I own him so I've noticed his recent production but he's just been so damn frustrating since I drafted him