Eriksson Weber FOR Franzen Byfuglien
An offer I received today I am thinking a lot about:
My Loui Eriksson and Shea Weber
FOR
His Johan Franzen and Dustin Byfuglien
Salary cap league based on cap hits. PIM and +/- have some weight. I am current in first place and looking pretty good to hold on (although Crosby better come back soon). With new deals to J. Johnson, Frolik, Okposo, Oshie and Weber I am going to have cap troubles (around $10 million) this summer so I put Weber on the trade block (hurried by his current hot streak….sell high).
Reasons to take this deal:
Byfuglien is Dobber’s number 1 d-man. This makes him the best player in the deal.
Weber and Eriksson are both ‘sell highs.’ Eriksson because of Richards and Weber because of his hot streak
I think Weber’s new cap hit will be much bigger than Byfuglien’s next year (I guess $6.0 compared to $4.5)
Reasons not to take this deal:
Byfuglien only has four points in the last 30 days so maybe he isn’t ‘for real’ (as in ‘for real’ #1 defencemen). He hasn’t had a point in 9 games.
Eriksson is better than Franzen.
The ‘real Weber’ is the one we have been seeing since December and his value is only going up.
Byfuglien is probably still a ‘buy high’
Thoughts?
While you do want to always be thinking about the future, the first thing I would be thinking about (especially when in first place) is can I win this year. You seemingly can so I would definitely not be making any deals that would jeopardize that. I think this one does...
I'm not big on this deal. The first thing to note about Dobber's lists is that points carry over in trades so the fact that Byfuglien went nutty in the first half shoots him way up the list. I think he's legit but he was due to slow down and we are seeing that now. With Enstrom out for the next little while that's going to slow Byfuglien down further as it breaks up their chemistry.
Weber is picking things up now and is due for a big second half. My guess is he matches whatever Byfuglien throws up on the board from here on out. With both guys set to become free agents this summer there's no real telling what's going to happen with cap hits. I mean if Byfuglien finishes with 70 points someone is going to pay him handsomely. Probably as well as they'd pay Weber considering how much emphasis is placed on defensemen who can move and rush the puck in today's NHL. With unknown destinations also a factor I have a hard time guessing what their long term projections will be. I'd say Byfuglien is definitely the better fantasy option but Weber can make it interesting.
Eriksson vs. Franzen is no contest. I'd rather have Eriksson any day of the week. Yes Franzen is money in the second half but Eriksson's been money all year and isn't anywhere near the injury risk that Franzen is. Long term Eriksson just blows Franzen out of the water.
Stick it out with what you've got and pray that you win the free agency battle this summer.
Not that it changes your advice much but both are RFAs so I doubt either change teams (unless there is a hold-out situation).Originally Posted by metaldude26
Thanks to both of you so far for the advice. So far it seems my gut feeling is confirmed.
Metaldude is probably the resident Oilers' expert here, but I could definitely see them taking a run at Shea Weber this offseason. Yeah they would have to give up some picks, but with the base that they have on offense plus whoever they draft this year, he could be a necessary piece.
Not so sure about that. There's a lot of die hard Oilers fans on this forum. I'll give this a shot though.
I have it built in my head that Weber isn't going anywhere. Why would they name him captain only to see him leave a season later? Maybe the captaincy was to entice him to stay. I read somewhere that Weber did want out though so I've nothing beyond speculation in that respect.
I can say this, there will be a lot of interest in Weber this summer. He's what every team is looking for. What team couldn't use him? I really wonder about the offer sheet avenue though. Teams are starting to learn just how dangerous the offer sheet can be. Kevin Lowe pissed off at least half the league with his wild forays into the RFA market and could have totally screwed over the Oilers with some of those offer sheets. Teams will be very cautious. If a team did sign Weber to a huge offer sheet I'd guess that Nashville wouldn't match. They'd gladly save the salary and take the picks. That's their M.O. Draft smart, develop slowly and keep costs down. It works and I don't see them deviating.
Should Weber really want to leave then I figure that'll force Nashville's hand much like the Halak-Montreal situation. Nashville will be forced to trade his rights for something less or close to what they'd get from an offer sheet because no team should want to go the offer sheet route and either risk offering too little that Nashville matches or too much and have to give up all those picks. With this summer's deep draft and teams look to stockpile 2nd and 3rd round picks where possible those would be intriguing assets for Nashville. Perhaps a team with a late 1st could also dangle that as compensation.
As far as the Oilers are concerned, I'm hoping that lessons were learned from that '07 summer when Lowe went temporarily insane. I really half to believe they are committed to the rebuild process and recognize how important draft picks are in that regard. They are certainly among the teams that could use his services. Stick him with Ryan Whitney and you've got an amazing pairing that can match up against any team's top D-pairing. That would be a superb lefty-righty combo with size, skating, experience and smarts as well as offensive and defensive skills. Weber's big shot would make Kurtis Foster redundant and expendable, which no Oil fan would lament.
You've really got to wonder if after the Sheldon Souray and Chris Pronger situations if Edmonton really becomes a favourable destination for free agents, even a Western Canadian like Weber. If Weber leaves it just seems more likely that he'll be looking for a bigger market and a competitive team. Sure he'd make the team more competitive on his own but you really have to wonder if he'd want to be part of a rebuilding situation. Part of the reason he would want out of Nashville is because they aren't competing for Cups.
Would he fit in with the Oilers? Yes and I'm sure we'd roll out the red carpet and offer him north of $5 million per but I don't think money is going to be the issue. If Weber wants out it's to go to a hockey market that can convince him they are gunning for the Cup. That would require a great sell job from Tambo.
Great Post MD.
I would love to see Weber in EDM but it straight up won't happen. I also highly highly doubt he leaves Nashville.
I'd stick with what you have...Byfuglien might be a bit of a mirage...he's sick, but I don't believe he'll keep up his pace. And still, Weber is fantastic.
With the forwards, I like Eriksson a lot more than Franzen...more upside,and less injury problems.
"We've had a couple shakers in this place. This year we haven't had the time. We had a couple good ones last year, right?" - Phil Kessel
Yeah, it's a wonderful dream but there are simply way more reasons against it working than for it.
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