Fantasy Mailbag - January 10

[GoalieGuild]

hey Justin, I am in a one year league with Halak and Rinne as my goalies.
2 points for a win 5 for a shutout.

About the only goalie that is available that has any value is Rolson - we can pick up and drop one player once a week.

I am thinking about trying to trade Halak and a not great player for A good player and a bad goalie and moving up in the draft to get Rolson and drop the bad goalie.

Is this a good move? Do you think Halak and Rolson will post similar numbers for the rest of this year based on our scoring system?

Thanks

I definitely think that Roloson will post similar, possibly even better numbers than Halak in the second half. Roloson is capable of pushing the Lightning to the top of the Eastern Conference and he's one of the most experienced and economical goalies around. He will be able to carry a very hefty workload from here on out, go on some very nice hot streaks and not wear down from the minutes. Halak, on the other hand, has never been in this position before and that lends a hand to slightly weaker stats in the second half.

If you are in a one-year league, what do you mean by moving up in the draft to get Roloson?? Did you mean in the waiver priority??

[Gern Blansten]

Good read on the "buy low canidates!"

Question:

We can only roster two goalies on our team at any given time. We play one per night, have a two game weekly minimum and our stats are: W, Sv% and SO's. Out of this bunch, which two goalies would you roll with for the remainder of the year and why?

Roloson
Brodeur
Anderson
Crawford
Bryzgalov
Varlamov
Boucher
Rask
Niemi
Neuvirth

Thanks in advance for your thoughts and happy New Year!

[Leafs2010]

Thoughts on Kiprusoff for the rest of the season? Would he be considered a buy low? Or are his average numbers going to remain the same given the team he plays for (I can't see him being traded this season)?

[Chico Resch]

I'm confused by this? NJ is giving up one of the MOST GPG averages and they are giving up just under 30 shots per game ... which is near the bottom in the NHL right now??

i. The volume of shots faced is a tricky stat. Goalies play better when they see consistent rubber. Goalies give up more goals when the scoring chances are quality and plentiful. So it depends more on the type of scoring chances against Brodeur. He's given up way too many weak goals for his ability, so I'm not sure what to say here.

ii. Yes, I have. Over the weekend, in both games, his recovery has been much quicker and sharper. He's getting back up faster and that's allowing him to travel within his crease with more speed and efficiency. His overall footwork has been much improved over the last two games, which I feel is a result of a number of different things. He's working hard on fundamentals and mechanics in practice, he's getting into a bit better shape and his overall confidence is on the rise.

iii. Yes, for the reasons I stated above, and for the reasons I discussed in today's School of Block. Be sure to read it - it's on the homepage right now!

iv. Tons. He's one of the best buy-low bargains in fantasy hockey right now. His numbers may not improve so much in the win-loss column, but no goalie in the NHL has more experience to draw on than Brodeur. A wise goalie does not struggle for an entire year. He will be much improved in the second half and finish with a .900+ save percentage.

EDIT....

Sorry, they're giving up the LEAST amount of shots.

[the_faceO_o]

Can you expand more on the Jonathan Bernier thoughts you intended for today's article? I've been holding onto him in a one-year league despite him not being very consistent and Quick tearing it up in the first half. Think he can steal a few more starts and actually perform well?

Also, what's the deal with Bryz? When he comes back from the "flu" do you think he can bring his numbers closer to last season or was that just a fluke?

[GoalieGuild]

whats up with Jonas Gustavsson? this guy was highly brought in and expected to be amazing. now with giguere out i thought we would be seeing him at his best. but he just seems to be doing nothing and now he is losing playing time to the minor leaguer (while good i know but still).

Gustavsson plays in extremely difficult games. He is still adjusting to playing in North America. He never played in the AHL. He went straight from SEL to NHL. He has very little support in front of him. He gives up big rebounds from time to time, which makes his life even more difficult because of the defense in front of him.

It's simply faulty logic to expect him to be ready to be playing at his peak potential this early in his career. It has only been a year and he clearly showed improvements after the Olympics last season and to start this season. He's not getting the results, but I can say without a doubt he is improving.

It's up to the Leafs to stay patient with his development. I don't know what they have planned for him with the Giguere injury issues, but they can't play him every game and expect that to open the door for some incredible run. It takes time. Some goalies are able to transition to a smaller surface faster and smoother than others. It's easy to do on a defensive-minded team like Nashville (Lindback). It's not so easy on a team like Toronto. Same could be said for Henrik Karlsson on Calgary, as he's hardly played this year.

I don't think he's lost time to Reimer. The Leafs are just showcasing Reimer because it's a luxury they can afford right now. Gustavsson is struggling, but by no means is he a worthless prospect or fantasy asset. Give him another six months and next year everything could be flipped!

[GoalieGuild]

Justin -

I'll throw another one out there. What are your impressions of Wesslau now that he has gotten into some games at the AHL level. His stats: 6-5-1, .905 SV%, 3.04 don't jump off the chart, but he is a rookie on a mediocre team. His SV% is actually better than LeNeveu, the #1 in Springfield (by GP).

You were pretty high on Wesslau over the summer, has his play changed this impression?

Not looking to move him from my farm, rather just seeking an update. Thanks.

The knee injury he suffered didn't help his development at all, as he sort of returned and was thrust into action already a few months into the season. I think he's done an excellent job, save a few weak outings, of adjusting to the smaller ice surface. Save percentage about .900 on an average team, and he's getting better as time goes on.

Now is a crucial part of his season, especially if Mason is on the shelf longer than expected. He'll carry the workload in Springfield and we'll get a real good chance to see if he continues to improve his numbers while playing with a better rhythm. I still think he has great upside if he gets some opportunities and stays healthy!

[GoalieGuild]

With a scope of 3 years, regardless of where Vokoun ends up, would you deal Markstrom for him right now? I'm in the race for the post season and figure Vokoun could help towards that but I'm having trouble dealing for him when his price is his highly touted understudy.

Thoughts?

You already have Hiller and Rinne. You also have Stalock and Tokarski. I would NOT trade Markstrom for Vokoun. Hiller and Rinne are two studs that will carry your team, while Stalock and Tokarski could be more than a full season away (not expected to get NHL minutes in 2011-12). Markstrom is in line (especially if he continues to play better in the AHL) for NHL minutes next year.

I would hold firm and pass on Vokoun.

[GoalieGuild]

Brodeur, Bobo, Crawford, Turco. How many combined wins do you think they can get in the 2nd Half? 40? 50?

I'd have to think this combination of four goalies will easily hit 45 wins. You could expect Brodeur and Crawford to hit 40 together. That means Bobrovsky and Turco would only need 10-15 wins...which is very plausible. I would say you're looking at anywhere from 45-50 wins for sure! Of course so many things could happen, but I fully expect Brodeur to be beter in the second half and for Crawford to carry the workload in Chicago and continue to play well. Easily 45 wins with those 4 goalies.

[jimslam]

hey,

my goalies for this year are Halak, bryzgalov and Rinne (1 year league)....Halak has been VERY frustrating after his amazing october...anyway, i'm looking to move one of these guys...which 2 would u pick to keep for the rest of the year?

thanks for the help!

[GoalieGuild]

Hi Justin-

What do you think of Poulin's prospects for the rest of the season? Will he stay up even when/if DP comes back, or is this just a quick NHL look-see for him?

I read that DiPietro is "expected" back this week. I am pretty sure that Poulin will go back down to Bridgeport when DiPietro returns.

Tomorrow's game against Vancouver will be such a massive test. They haven't confirmed a starter yet, but I expect it to be Poulin getting the start. Let's see how he does in that game. There's a slim chance that Poulin could stay up instead of Lawson. Just have to wait and see! But be sure to read my Poulin audio recap and scouting chart from his win here in Colorado www.thegoalieguild.com right there!

[GoalieGuild]

Good read on the "buy low canidates!"

Question:

We can only roster two goalies on our team at any given time. We play one per night, have a two game weekly minimum and our stats are: W, Sv% and SO's. Out of this bunch, which two goalies would you roll with for the remainder of the year and why?

Roloson
Brodeur
Anderson
Crawford
Bryzgalov
Varlamov
Boucher
Rask
Niemi
Neuvirth

Thanks in advance for your thoughts and happy New Year!

Here are some of the combos I would roll with:

Bryzgalov + Varlamov
Bryzgalov + Crawford
Crawford + Varlamov
Roloson + Crawford
Roloson + Varlamov

Since you only need two games per week and you start one goalie a night, I would personally look at the potential of a workhorse like Bryz and Roloson plus Tuukka Rask. I would do this because Rask posts awesome save percentages despite not playing often. If he plays more in the second half (which I personally think he will) then you get more bang for your buck.

I would personally go with Roloson and Rask as my select duo for the rest of the season! Roloson brings more confidence than Varly and Crawford.

My second choice, which is probably a little less risky, would be Roloson and Bryzgalov. After that, I would go Roloson / Varlamov.

[GoalieGuild]

Thoughts on Kiprusoff for the rest of the season? Would he be considered a buy low? Or are his average numbers going to remain the same given the team he plays for (I can't see him being traded this season)?

I think Kipper makes a good buy-low candidate, but not a total steal/bargain. I don't see him improving to such a degree that he would be considered as viable as Brodeur or Rask.

I think he's statistically slightly better in the second half, but again, nothing drastic. He's certainly a candidate if you can get him for a cheap asset or if the owner is a motivated seller, but otherwise don't get your hopes too high. But yes, he will be better in the 2nd half compared to the first half.

[SalakisGOD]

Hey Justin,

I hope you're still taking questions! Anyways ill give it a shot.

What the heck is going on with Reimer?????? Watched the game last night and he looked great. I had initially read that he'd be sent down immediately once Giggy was healthy but based on his play will they keep him up?

Im in a 12 team full keeper league and im near the bottom of the standings desperately looking for some goaltending (as of right now I have nitty, lehner, neuvy, campbell, bernier). They will be good down the road but right now I have nothing.

Should i be patient with the crew I currently have (which is what i'm leaning towards) or drop one to make room for Reimer who is still on ww (and might not be for long)?

Thanks in advance

Salak

[I Like Boyes]

Hi Justin,

I am in a league where goalies are hard to come by.....As it stands I have a pretty deep stable of goalies but I'm always looking to pan for gold....Can you tell me anything about the following goalies? Anything as far as their long-term potential and value in a deep, full keeper?

Tyler Bunz
Johan Gustafsson
Jeremy Smith
Brandon Maxwell
Joni Ortio
J.F. Berube
Sam Brittain
Petr Mrazek

Thanks in advance!