new team evaluation

[jarja]

I just took over this team in a 12 team keeper league and I'm just looking for some opinions other then my own as to who to keep and what to improve.

H2H dress 3C 3LW 3RW 4D 2G 6BN spots
G A +/- PIM PPP FW
W GAA SV% SO

we keep 7 skaters and 1 G.

here's my team;
C
D.Roy
S. Gagner
S. Gomez
J. Stoll

LW
R.Nash
K.Versteeg
D. Booth
N. Hagman
M. Sturm
J. Blake

RW
N. Horton (C/RW)
D. Byfuglien
A. Kovalev

D
T. Kaberle
M.Zidliky
J.Spacek
M. Del Zotto
K. Letang

G
M. Turco
D. Roloson
J.Gustavsson

My main target will be a better goalie, and then I would probably like to find something in a RW and possibly a Dman.

Also who would you keep?

[Shoeless]

Compliments on a nicely presented query - refreshing to get all the core details right up front.

Personally I see 4 core keepers Horton, Nash, Gustavsson and Kaberle. After that I think Roy, Booth, Gomez, Gagner and Letang would be my considerations. Keeping Booth scares me a little but keeping 3C doesn't really seem too appealing either. You have nice depth at D but keeping more than 2 also isn't that desirable. Byfulgien normally wouldn't be a keeper in this league but I wonder if your hand is forced a little because you really want to keep some balance.

I am talking myself into keeping Roy, Gomez, Byfulgien and Letang as your other skaters - unless you are like me and are prepared to take 1 risk and then I would substitute Booth for Byf and pray.

I think when you only keep 8 players the answer to the question of "where do I need to improve?" is quite simple - everywhere. I think you have only 2 ironclad keepers here in Nash and Kaberle for a league your size. Next year going into the draft you sure would like to have better players at each position to protect.

Obviously with so few protected, you are going to have some real opportunity to grab talent in your first draft - do your homework, make a plan, stick with it. Better wingers would be my priority and then a goalie upgrade. I think you already see that - so draft away lad.

[doulos]

You're a brave brave man for taking on that team - it won't be competitive any time soon.

Keepers:

G - Gustavsson
C - Roy
LW - Nash
RW - Horton
D - Kaberle

You'll need 3 more.

Some options are Gomez or Gagner at C (I'd probably chose Gagner and see if he'll have some magic next year, particularly since you are not winning any time soon.

David Booth would be a choice for me.

On defense you have some great options that I would try and package up to try and improve both goaltending and your RW - and then keep one of the guys remaining (I'd personally keep Letang, even though he had the worst year offensively of him, del Zotto, and Zidlicky. I could see an argument for any of the 3 to be kept though)

I honestly think that your D situation is decent, and it seems to be an easier spot to plug holes in during the year - but I could be wrong.

You've got your work cut out for you. Time to trade off non keepers for picks and young sleepers and try and work some magic. Best of luck!

[SK47]

I personally think some upgrades at centre are in order. I find that when Faceoffs is a category centre can become a diluted position. It's nice to have depth up the middle.

[atredbeard]

I have to disagree with everyone who is telling you to keep Kaberle. If this was a points only league I would agree but Kaberle does nothing but add assists and PPP and nothing else. Terrible in +/-, doesn't shoot, no PIM, very little heart, won't take a hit, or give a hit, inconsistent.....need I say more.

I keep reminding myself to look at your team for the future....not next year and with that in mind I see letang and Del Zotto as more valuable in 2-4 years.

Looking to the future you are going to have to pull off a myriad of trades (preferably 2 for 1s)to upgrade your core over the next few seasons. I believe that you will have to take a risk with a team like this and protect you potential in order to turn this team around. It is risky but what choice do you have starting with a team like this. Hopefully some of the young talent will break out and increase their trade value. If that happens it will make your job of upgrading your core infinitely more possibly. That won't happen with Kaberle, people know what they will get out of him but it could potentially happen with MDZ and Letang.

I would keep
Roy-Obvious
Nash-Obvious
Horton-Obvious
Booth-If healthy he could definitely score 30+ goals...a risk worth taking
Byfuglien-Quickly turning into a beast for Chicago, their best net front presence and I highly doubt he will be one of the players moved from that team (I see versteeg and others as more expendable) plus he is showing excellent chemistry with Kane and Toews and will pad some PIM protecting the two of them.
Letang- As stated above
MDZ -as stated above
Gustavsson-Turco is getting to be old and washed up stick with youth for a rebuilding team.

[doulos]

I'll get to Kaberle a little bit later when I have some time to chew on and spit out some numbers, but keeping Byfuglien makes little sense for me.

He's a 35 point player who chips in some PIM and very very marginal PPP.

[SeaDawg]

With only 7 keepers per team, you should be able to land some decent players in the draft. You will have to draft smartly to be a contendor anytime soon. You are correct that your goal-tending is your biggest weakness. You must do something about that, unless you get real lucky and Turco goes somewhere and becomes the starter (like St. Louis, Tampa, Washington, San Jose, Chicago, etc.).

I'd keep:

C:
D.Roy

LW:
R.Nash
D. Booth

RW:
N. Horton (C/RW)

D
T. Kaberle
M. Del Zotto
K. Letang

G:
Turco (depends where he signs)
or Gustavsson

[doulos]

I can actually get on board with trading Kaberle as long as the return is good. The guy IS a solid points producer, even with his other issues. But if there is no deal to be had then in my mind he is a keeper.

Let's look at a few of these players though.

Kaberle:

Almost 50 points last year, 24 PIM, -16, 25 PPP.
Has had seasons of 53, 58 and 67 within the past 5 years.
Is only 32 years old - still within prime.
Had an atrocious last half of the season - was it due to Phaneuf being in town?

Del Zotto:

37 points last season as a rookie, 32 PIM, -20, 22 PPP
Only history before that was a PPG in the OHL - high draft pedigree.
Started and ended strong, had a long dry stretch in the middle.
No foreseeable roster changes on defense for Rangers?

Kris Letang:

27 points last season in his 3rd year, 51 PIM, +1, 5 PPP
Will Gonchar be gone next season? If so he's a prime candidate for points.
Least talented of the 4 defense in question, but perhaps in the best "team" situation if Gonchar leaves.

Marek Zidlicky:

43 points last season, -16, 67 PIM, 24 PPP
Proven 40-45 point producer year in and year out - 33 years old.
Likely to be a big part of the Wild defense for a few more years.

So where does that leave us?
My opinion?

Points rank: Kaberle (boom/bust), Zidlicky, Del Zotto, Letang (boom/bust)

PIM rank: Zidlicky, Letang, Del Zotto/Kaberle

+/-: Letang then all the rest are in the same ballpark for now.

PPP: Letang last, all the others in a group before him.

So keeping potential out of the equation for the moment I guess the smart money would be on:

Zidlicky, DelZotto/Kaberle, then Letang a distant 4th.

This is where you throw potential in there. Kaberle has a high points potential so that kicks him up a notch. Del Zotto has a great pedigree and a great rookie season. I'd be wary of a bit of a slump next season though. His long term potential is high though. Zidlicky is the steady guy who you know what you are going to get for the next few years. Unless someone is really looking for that he's likely going to need to be kept. Letang's value is completely team related and depends on Gonchar in my mind.

After all of this I guess I change my mind slightly.

Keep Zidlicky and maybe del Zotto. Try and trade Kaberle and Letang and see what sort of return you can get on them.

Sound reasonable?

[Mater]

What would be fair value for him? 70 pt guy?

[Shoeless]

Doulos - when did Zids get traded to the Flyers? Are you thinking of Timonen maybe?

Good thread guys - lovely debate about the relative merits of these players.

Clearly anyone on this team is tradeable if it improves his keeper value. Trading from D strength makes sense but I honestly wonder if there is anyone in the league who one of these guys would be a keeper upgrade for? I think not likely. Let's be practical here - there aren't going to be too many teams that will want depth players as keepers. Recommending trading seems a little silly to me. Yeah don't turn it off as a possibility but with 96 players kept in the league - don't put a lot of energy into it.

Anyway I slept on it and read some of the input and I too would like to revise my thinking a little.

I don't have the slighest twitch about keeping Roy, Horton, Nash, Kaberle and Gus. Kaberle could easily put up 60 + next season and it would be foolish to not keep him on that basis (trade him when he gets going if you must). The D guys are too good not to keep another and I still like Letang - many don't but that's the nature of the beast - I do and would keep him here.

So that leaves me with 2 skaters to protect. Doulos forced me to go back to my initial instinct on Gagner - he could easily explode next season - it's a risk but I think one worth taking in keeping him over Gomez. Another risk is keeping Booth - just too much of a sniper - but I would do it. If both these guys pan out then this team definitely gets a bump up. Keeping any others doesn't provide much potential for an upside kick in the pants.

So my final offer is: Roy, Gagner, Nash, Horton, Booth, Kaberle, Letang and Gustavsson. Let it be known that the others are for sale for picks or 2 for 1 upgrades for sure in case someone sees a body they want.

[doulos]

I was completely thinking Timonen when I was typing Zidlicky!! Hahahah.

Let me Jedi edit that...

[doulos]

Give me the same keeper list as Shoeless but with Zidlicky instead of Letang. Different flavour of ice cream!

[jarja]

thanks for all the input everybody.

I was thinking on the lines of what shoeless has as well.

I might try to get a goalie like Rask as his owner has Nabokov, so he might not be keeping Rask, Bryzgalov and S. Mason are in the same situation actually on the same team with R. Miller.

[Aaron27]

I would keep:
Derek Roy
Sam Gagner

Rick Nash
Nathan Horton

Tomas Kaberle
Kris Letang
Michael del Zotto

Jonas Gustavsson


Only debate in my head was Gomez vs Gagner vs Booth. And your team is a ways away from winning, so I would take the younger guys.
So now its Gagner vs Booth...
Gagner is a risk to bust or breakout.
Booth is a risk to retire or be his usual good self.
BUT Booth carries that risk every year going forward, so if you're not competing, take the risk to bust or breakout and keep Gagner.

Another way to look at it:
If Gagner sucks you don't have to keep him next year. If he breaks out you keep him.
If Booth gets KO'd again you don't have to keep him next year. If he stays healthy, you really face the same injury risk next season again.

Now Booth vs Del Zotto.
In a 12 team (start 4) Dman league that means there's 48 dmen starting. I would say MDZ is in the top 30-35 keeper dmen. Especially if you're looking long-term.
In a 12 team (start 6) wingers league that means there's 72 wingers starting. Is Booth in the top 72? Probably but again it's that risk of busting or breaking out for MDZ vs the risk of injury-forced-retirement vs staying healthy.
When rebuilding I take the bust/breakout guy.

Obvious upgrades to me would be trading Kaberle for a young stud winger.
Drafting goalies. In a 12 team (start 2, keep 1) league, you NEED a better keeper than Gustavsson. Math would say you need to have a top 12 goalie, which Gustavson is nowhere near.

[Aaron27]

Offer Kaberle for Rask
or
Offer Gagner/MDZ/Letang for Mason