Toews for 1st or 2nd overall

[jebrunquist]

Hey guys, I think most people are familiar with Toews upside on this board and dobber's mentioned him a lot, that kind of player who has the defensive upside that can hurt his fantasy output overall.

Not to take that away from his overall value which is still high, but seeing as how I'm in a cap league and his salary is 6,500,000, and he will most likely top out 85pts-ish, would you consider moving him for the 1st or 2nd overall, ie Hall or Seguin who could have a higher offensive potential?

[Shoeless]

I think I would do a deal like that in a cap league - I think Toews at 85 is generous and you can get significantly cheaper help that appoaches his numbers with astute management - there is always a need to fuel the bottom end of your roster with cheap guys for a few years with good upside.

[LangenbrunnersDevils]

You should do that, Hall or Seguin will get around 80-90 points year 2 (like Stamkos) and will be in the 50-60 point range this season however they are top end prospects and you clear a lot of cap space. I would do it.

[ericdaoust]

Toews resembles some of the other greats (Yzerman, Modano) who were used in shadowing roles a lot for the good of the team. That means no 100 point seasons.

Unfortunately, his salary reflects his two-way ability and fails to justify his offensive output. So I would consider the cheap alternative. If your league has positional requirements, set your sights on Hall as he's a winger. You can find a centerman that produces close to Toews' 68 points without too much difficulty.

[Mr Zizzla]

I would definitely make that move. it will save you nearly 5M a year for the next 3 seasons and if they play to their potential, Hall and Seguin would be very valuable to your team or as trade.

and if your have positions, this makes the deal even better as you get a LW in Hall and potentially a RW in Seguin. Assuming Seguin goes to the Bruins, they are in need of wingers so i think they might play him there to start and if he is successful, could spend the majority of his time flanking Savard/Bergeron/Krejci.

DO IT!

[NordiqueFan]

i go with the deal too since you manage to cut salary and receive a player that upside can be higher at a cheap price for the first 3 year

[Sovereign]

Points got to come from somewhere.
Hall may have the shot to produce so does Seguin. But huge production like that expected comes with ice-time and help.
I also love the continuous Stamkos comparisons. People always hoped for the next Crosby/Ovechkin, a rook to get 100pts. But few have the stones to make the prediction. Even Sid and OVI broke in very few thought they could has rookies. Many more are willing since they did it. Stamkos is a safer option since it does not put year one production=pressure on the player. And everyone hopes now for the year two miracle turn-around. Backstrom like prodcution is much more reasonable. But he centered OVI or Semin, Stamkos had St.Louis, neither Hall or Seguin can bost the same.

The only thing that stings in this deal is the Toews salary for next year. To me he needs to get at least 7-10 more pts to justify that. Outside of points only leagues, two-way play is tangible via +/-.

Hall is going to be the go-to-guy in EDM, but the rest of the team was unable to do much this year, so expecting him to pull huge numbers while the team stumbles is extremely hopeful. The team will run and gun since they will be defensive sives. That speaks well for points, maybe, and hurts +/-. They will likely be a soft team, and therefore won't be able to battle through much, or take a lot of PIM. This is not good move if your contending.

Seguin, is a safer option since he will join an established team, although one that is deep at C. That said, he could be moved to a wing. He may not get much ice-time, and they may elect to keep him in the AHL, since the team is all but full, and it keeps his eligibility more longterm.

So be careful before betting the farm on one of these two. If you have a farm team, and are deep at C, gitty up, and ignore my musings.

[Dean Youngblood]

You should do that, Hall or Seguin will get around 80-90 points year 2 (like Stamkos) and will be in the 50-60 point range this season however they are top end prospects and you clear a lot of cap space. I would do it.

Hall or Seguin will not reach 80-90 pts in year 2. Hall IMO will be lucky to beat Toews year in and year out. In saying that, the deal isn't too bad in a cap league but you will definitely be sacrificing points over the next 3-4 years.

Personally, I would target a guy like John Tavares (cheap salary) or Matt Duchene who have better upsides IMO than Hall and they are further along in their development. I would try this avenue first before offering up Toews for Hall or Seguin.

[deantime419]

...the deal isn't too bad in a cap league but you will definitely be sacrificing points over the next 3-4 years.

Personally, I would target a guy like John Tavares (cheap salary) or Matt Duchene who have better upsides IMO than Hall and they are further along in their development. I would try this avenue first before offering up Toews for Hall or Seguin.

Good call. In a salary cap league, Tavares for Toews would be awesome, especially since he didn't perform like some expected he would in his rookie season and might be somewhat of a buy low candidate.

If the offer is on the table for Toews though, take it before the guy realizes Toews is not a great bang for your buck player. It's still a gamble when Hall/Seguin have yet to play pro hockey but you'll get 3 cheap years and players who don't project to have the shutdown capabilities of Toews, which will keep their bang-for-your-buck value better than Toews.

[Sovereign]

Hall or Seguin will not reach 80-90 pts in year 2. Hall IMO will be lucky to beat Toews year in and year out. In saying that, the deal isn't too bad in a cap league but you will definitely be sacrificing points over the next 3-4 years.

Personally, I would target a guy like John Tavares (cheap salary) or Matt Duchene who have better upsides IMO than Hall and they are further along in their development. I would try this avenue first before offering up Toews for Hall or Seguin.

Personally, I think Hall is better than Tavares. Hall out played Tavares two years ago in the playoffs and Hall was a year younger.

That said, a Tavares owner may have soured, and you may be able to get him easier, or cheaper. He has also survived a whole 82 game season. He also scored more goals than both.

If you need goals chase Tavares, if you want total points, take Hall. Hall also has positional value, Tavares, not as much. Seguin will probably fall somewhere between the two.

Best of luck!

[jebrunquist]

Thanks for all the feedback. It went down and I've got the 2nd overall now.

The other thing I took into consideration is that Chicago has to shave a lot of payroll next year which will mean that Toews will be seeing a lot tougher opposition next year, and a lot more focus with less quality teammates. I'm guessing his points will see a slight uptick, but his +/- might suffer somewhat. Balances out in my league anyways, and $6,500,000 cheaper...