1-year, 14-team H2H league draft strategy

[Riodhr]

Hey all, have been lurking around here for a while, playing fantasy hockey for a couple of years, but this is my first year playing a more serious, private league, probably going to make me a bit more active here.

Anyways I'm looking for a combination of general advice and answers to a few specific questions. Here's the league details to start with:

Roster Slots: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, F, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR

Scoring: G, A, P, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG & W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO

Snake draft.


Stuff I'm wondering about is:

How fast are goalies generally going to go in a 14-team league? I realize it's only 1-year, but I was figuring on selecting a goalie with my 1st pick if I'm drafting later than 6/7th. If I'm picking 1-6/7 I was figuring on either going with the big 3 or trying to get an early advantage with an upper echelon LW or defenseman. Thoughts on that?

What advice do you have for the draft strategy as a whole? I think the most important thing for myself is going to be to see the tendencies of the other GMs and drafting according to those (ie; goalies going fast, slow, defense going early, etc.)

I've seen conflicting arguments this year about LW or RW having shallower depth. I was leaning towards LW with their seeming to be a bigger gap between the top LWs and the 20-30th ranked ones than the top and 20-30th RWs. What do you think is the case?

How much does the 7th forward instead of a 4th defenseman affect the draft? Do defenseman become more/less valuable? Do LW/RW become more valuable than centers?

What should I be looking to fill my bench with? More depth, or players that could be gambles with large upsides (backup goalies in potential starting battles, players coming off injuries)?

Relatively speaking, it's not too difficult to quantify points totals and their value for players, but how do you factor in +/- when deciding between two? Is a +20, 80 point player better than a +10, 90 point player? Or is there a different school of thought on it?

If I end up choosing around 12-14, what would the merits be of choosing two top-tier goalies back-to-back (assuming the draft ends up skater heavy in round 1) and then focusing the rest of my draft on players strong in only a few types of stats but lower-ranked overall?


If you have any other tips or advice I'd appreciate it greatly. Thanks in advance for your help, guys.

[dcarrbaby]

Your first 2 picks should be a goalie and a winger, unless you have one of the top 3 picks. Stay away from centreman until the 3rd round, but you need a top goalie.

[starglider]

In my experience, the more competitive the league is the quicker top goalies get drafted. Good managers know that elite goalies win championships in formats like this. In my leagues, I expect almost every manager to draft a goalie in either round 1 or 2, but likely not both. So I would count on 12-14 goalies being gone by the end of the second round. Look at your list of goalies and decide if your 15th ranked goalie is good enough to be your go-to starter all year - unlikely. You want to secure a top 10 goalie and this should be feasible unless you pick very high in the draft, in which case the risk is mitigated by you getting a 120 point player with your first pick.

So I would say:

Drafting early - Take one of the big 3. I doubt one slips past 4 but I would take one of them at 5 and every other spot below that, too, if for some reason you are drafting with people who like losing!

Drafting in the middle - This is where I would love to secure a top goalie like Luongo, Brodeur or Nabokov. You will still get a great forward when the snake gets back to you, ideally a winger.

Drafting late - You can often get away with taking a forward with your first rounder (or Mike Green, if he's there) because you know your next pick is coming soon. It will come down to how many goalies have been taken and how many you expect to go between your 1st and 2nd rounders - judge accordingly.

It boils down to something like this:

You want to make sure you get a top tier goalie. If there's a big early run on goalies and only one or two of your top tier guys are left, take one. It's too important to try to be clever and buck the trend, and you'll end up scrambling later. Taking two goalies back to back, though, is probably overkill because you can usually get a solid #2 in the 4th or 5th round and ensure both solid netminding and offense. It can be hard to make up the difference in scoring if you don't pick a forward until the third round, especially if it's the end of the third round in a 14 team league.

General draft strategies for me consist of awareness and flexibility. Awareness meaning you know who've you taken at what position, and what kind of performance they're likely to bring to the table. You know that if you've drafted two solid left wingers already then your third one can be a high risk, high reward type. You know that if your #1 right wing is Gaborik (heaven forbid) then you had better find two steady performers to back him up. You know that if you're weak on goal scoring compared to playmaking through the first half then you need to adjust your list to look for goals in the second half, or vice versa. This kind of thing.

Flexibility is an offshoot of awareness and means that you can't rely on hard and fast rules. Sometimes (always?) drafts go differently than you expect. Even if you know you have the first half dozen rounds mapped out, things change. Don't be afraid to adapt your strategy if, say, a stud center falls to you even if you were planning on taking a winger at that spot.

In my opinion, the LW and RW pool become rather similar by the time you get to the 30th ranked players on each side. There may be more of a difference at the top as I suspect there are a few more elite LWs than RWs. I will be focusing on both these positions with a slight edge to the right wingers.

Adding a forward slot doesn't necessarily make wingers more valuable, since this slot can be filled by a centerman. In fact I would say if anything it makes centers slightly more valuable since you can get away with starting 3 of them each night. Defensemen do become a bit less important when you only start 3 and I would stick to the following rule: if you can't draft an elite dman early on then wait a few rounds because defensemen level off quickly and become very similar after the studs are gone.

As for +/-, in your example you compared an 80 point, +20 player with a 90 point, +10 player. Keep in mind then that the average 90 point guy will be better than the 80 pointer in not just P but also G and/or A, PPP, and will have at least a head start on SHP and GWG. Take the better point producer unless the difference in predicted +/- is astronomical and the points are similar - they will contribute in more areas.

[BladesOfSteel]

I have been in a very similar 14 team head-to-head 1 year league for the past few years and I can tell you a few things.

If you have one of the big 3, take Ovvy, Malks, Sid.

You absolutely have to take a big winger in the 1st round (Kovvy, Heatley, Parise, Iginla, Kane, Nash) followed by an elite goalie in the 2nd (Nabokov, Luongo, Brodeur, Lundqvist, Thomas, Kiprusoff). 3rd round target another big winger (St Louis, Perry, Semin, D. Sedin, or if available Mike Green) and in the 4th, another big winger if they still remain. In the next 2 rounds (5 and 6), go after centers and D-man that are valued for this spot, like a H. Sedin, Kopitar, Roy, Ribeiro, and a D-man like Campbell, Streit or Rafalski.

After that, it's a bit of a crap shoot, just be sure you continue to draft players based on value. Rank your positions into tiers, and when a tier is running thin, draft someone from that tier. Also, be sure you get another quality goalie (preferably in the opposite conference as your first goalie) somewhere in the middle round (7-9) before the second run of goalie begins. Target Ray Emery, Pekke Rinne, Thomas Vokoun or Carey Price.

[Riodhr]

Extremely appreciate the advice guys, this is exactly the kind of info I was looking for. Giving me some great insights into what to expect when the draft plays out and not end up scrambling.

Starglider, your info about +/- hadn't really clicked in my head, yet (points guys also giving an advantage in PPP, GWG) and I thank you for that. Probably stopped me from ranking some +/- whores higher than I should've.

Once again, thanks, and anymore info is appreciated.

[drkay]

excellent post starglider. I would agree with your assessment completely