Likelihood of Bouwmeester in Philly?

[oasiswings1]

Philly wont be able to do this unless they move Briere. Even moving Lupul still keeps them up against the cap with no wiggle room. Its either Briere and no Knuble or Lupul AND Gagne. It aint gonna happen.

This is whats great about the salary cap and the new NHL, you cant but everyone. Now if only they would devise a new draft order system so EVERY team had a chance at the top pick.

Also he aint going to Montreal. No top UFA\'s choose to go there ever. Toronto maybe, habs nope.

Heater and Vinny will be moved 1st then the likes of Jaybo, Hossa, Gaborik, Cammalleri will find new homes.

I say Heater to Edmonton, Vinny to LA, Jaybo to Toronto, Hossa and Gaborik sign in Minnesota, and Cammaleri to Pittsburgh.

[strider2k2]

oasiswings1 wrote:

Philly wont be able to do this unless they move Briere. Even moving Lupul still keeps them up against the cap with no wiggle room. Its either Briere and no Knuble or Lupul AND Gagne. It aint gonna happen.

First of all, the Flyers will forever be up against the cap with no wiggle room. Every year they\'re going to be in a situation where they have to shed salary to get the guy they want. That\'s the cost of business in Philly. they\'ve alrady started with the Emery signing. $1.5 million for a starting goalie vs $3.5 million

We can all agree that Bouwmeester is going to get a long term contract that will pay him in the six to seven million dollar range his first year, right? Assuming that next year\'s cap is about the same as the current one, $7 million is the magic umber we need to lose. Moving Briere will free up exactly $7 million next year, which should cover Bouwmeester\'s salary.

Gagne and Lupul will combine to make nine and a half million next year, and while that will more than cover Bouwmeester\'s salary, the Flyers don\'t NEED to trade both of them, just one or the other. Given Gagne\'s injury history I don\'t think he\'s going to be easily moved. That leave\'s Lupul and his $4.25 million contract. Now you need to find $2.75 million you can get rid of.

If the Flyers are going to add Bouwmeester, it would make sense that they cut ties with one or more defensemen. Timmonen, and Coburn aren\'t going anywhere. Parent and Sbisa aren\'t likely to be moved either, and even if they were they wouldn\'t free up the cap space needed. That leaves Jones and Carle, two guys that could very well be traded in order to make room for Jay Bouwmeester, but it depends on their salaries.

So, how much are these two guys making? Jones will be paid $3 million next year, and Carle will make $3.5. Either of these guys, along with Lupul, would give the Flyers the $7 million they\'ll need next year to pay Bouwmeester.

By trading Lupul/Jones you would have shed $7.25 million, which means that the addition of Bouwmeester isn\'t going to addany salary to last year\'s payroll. This means there is still room to resign Knuble, Alberts, and Niittymaki as long as they don\'t want significant pay increases.

This is assuming of course that the cap stays almost exactly the same as it was last year. Bettman has said that the cap \"would likely be within $3[M], either up or down,\" so let\'s assume the worst. If the cap drops $3 million, then you need to shed an additional $2.75 million. This is assuming a first year salary of $7 million for Bouwmeester, and the trading of Lupul and Jones, who combine for $7.25 million next year. The answer is to simply not resign Knuble, which would shed $2.8 million dollars of last year\'s salary!

Of course all of these calculation have been ignoring two things. First is the fact that the Flyers signed Emery and won\'t resign Biron, thereby shedding $2 million from last year\'s salary. Trade Carle instead of Jones and you shed an extra $.5 million. $2.5M plus $.5M equals an even $3 million dollars.

Second is that next year the Flyer\'s will no longer be burdened by Derrien Hatcher\'s contract, which is worth . . . $3.5 million! That in and of itself takes care of teh possible lowering of the cap.

So, even if the cap drops $3 million, by trading Lupul/Jones and not resigning Knuble, the Flyers could still acquire Bouwmester, and field the following team:

Gagne/Richards/Briere
Hartnell/Carter/Giroux
vanRiemsdyk/Powe/Nodl
Carcillo/Asham/Cote

Timmonen/Bouwmeester
Coburn/Carle
Parent/Sbisa
Alberts

Emery
Niitymaki

However, given the Hatcher situation, I think they will sign Knuble, and field the forwards below:

Gagne/Richards/Knuble
Hartnell/Carter/Briere
vanRiemsdyk/Giroux/Nodl
Carcillo/Asham/Powe

This has gotten way longer than I intended, but my point is that the Flyers do have some wiggle room, and the Flyers acquring Bouwmeester s anything but impossible.

[Flyer Fan]

I think that clearing space for going after Bouwmeester,Komisarek, or another big defenseman was a big part of the reasoning behind rolling the dice on Emery.

For all of Holmgren\'s faults (with regards to wasting resources, draft picks, prospects, and cap management); one thing he has done very well as a GM is evaluating his teams needs, and quickly addressing them.

Just as he was as a player, as a GM Holmgren has a tendency to be a bit over-aggressive in pursuit of his goals.

Holmgren clearly felt that the Flyers defensemen were overpowered by the Pens forwards, and that an upgrade in the physicality, and defensive ability of the group was needed.

Holmgren, having previously watched as Smith and Hatcher were repeatedly exploited by the Pens speed, is acutely aware of the need for that physical presence to posess enough mobility to skate with what he views as the team likely to be the Flyers most immediate, and continuing obstacle to winning the cup.


For what it\'s worth, signing Bouwmeester wouldn\'t nescesarily require the Flyers to trade either Lupul, or Briere.

Here\'s how the Flyer\'s cap situation looks for next season, as currently configured:

Daniel Briere 6.500
Mike Richards 5.750
Simon Gagne 5.250
Jeff Carter 5.000
Joffrey Lupul 4.250
Scott Hartnell 4.200
Daniel Carcillo .893
Andreas Nodl .795
Arron Asham .625
Riley Cote .550
Darroll Powe .450
Claude Giroux .821
-----------------------
12 Forwards = 35.084

This still leaves a hole for what would ideally be a physical fourth line center, who\'s defensively sound, and can win faceoffs (a role which Metropolit, was signed for 1 Million last season to fill), and assumes that JVR goes to the AHL for seasoning, and Nodl stays. There salaries are similar.

Kimmo Timonen 6.333
Matt Carle 3.437
Randy Jones 2.750
Braydon Coburn 1.300
Ryan Parent .855
Luca Sbisa .875
----------------------
6 Defensemen = 15.550


Ray Emery 1.500
Backlund .900
-----------------------
2 Goaltenders = 2.400

Total Roster = 53.034
~Flat Cap = 57.600
----------------------
Under Cap = 4.566

Assuming even a zero dollar cap increase; removing the very tradeable Randy Jones\' and his 2.750 Million alone would give Holmgren $7.316 with which to pursue Bouwmeester

If Carle were moved instead, that number jumps to 8.003


That\'s all based on keeping both Lupul and Briere, (and Hartnell, and Gagne) and no cap increase at all.

Other options potentially available to Holmgren with whatever\'s left after signing Bouwmeester would be:

- signing a fourth line forward = 1M
- upgrading the backup goaltender from Backlund(.900) to Niittymaki(@~1.75M for an additional cap hit of 0.8)
~ resigning Mike Knuble (Holmgren\'s currently negotiating for an inexpensive one or two year deal)
~ depending on his market value, resigning Andrew Alberts(guestimating a contract of 1.75M which would be an additional cap cost of .9M as opposed to Sbisa) to serve as a seventh or even sixth defenseman, with Sbisa filling into the seventh role as needed, while playing regularly in the AHL.


Just some thoughts, ...looking forward the end of the month to see how it all plays out.

[Flyer Fan]

:laugh:

Great post Strider2k2!

We must have both been typing at the same time! B)

...and both had lots of coffee this morning too. :woohoo:

[oasiswings1]

First of all, the Flyers will forever be up against the cap with no wiggle room. Every year they\'re going to be in a situation where they have to shed salary to get the guy they want. That\'s the cost of business in Philly. they\'ve alrady started with the Emery signing. $1.5 million for a starting goalie vs $3.5 million

How well has this approach been working for the Flyers in recent years/decades?

[strider2k2]

oasiswings1 wrote:

How well has this approach been working for the Flyers in recent years/decades?

Making the playoffs thirteen out of the last fourteen years, finishing with 100+ points seven of those years, and 90+ points in thirteen of them, making the conference finals in five of them, yeah . . . teh Flyers way of doing things isn\'t working at all. They should save their money and win Cups like the Thrashers, Kings, Coyotes, Predators and Islanders (five teams with the smallest cap hits last year in the NHL).

Compare those teams to the teams with the top five cap hits: Philadelphia, Washington, Calgary, Chicago and Anaheim. If I\'m not mistaken they\'re all playoff teams. The previous five not so much. I\'ll take a team being aggressive and spending money over a team being cheap any day. By the way, the Red Wings and Pens, our two Stanley cup teams? both in the top half of the league in spending.

Flyer Fan:

Great post Strider2k2!

We must have both been typing at the same time!

Great minds think alike I guess. +1

[oasiswings1]

Just beacuse you spend money and reach the cap ceiling dosent mean you have spent it wisely. Having some wiggle room to add a player mid-season/call up players due to injury is a valuable commodity. Continually spending with no regard dosent usually work out well. I dont recall them winning the cup during the years you speak of so dont tell me the \"flyer way\" is so effective. The Flyuers can sign Bouwmeester all they want. it might be in their best interest though to unload a few heavy contracts before simply adding another.

All I meant was that its a good idea to not be too cap heavy on just a few players or you run into problems, aka tampa, ottawa, etc.

[strider2k2]

The Flyers are competitive year in and year out, and the last two years have been a serious Cup contender. I\'m not saying spending big bucks on every name free agent is the way to go, but if you don\'t spend money you won\'t win. I also wouldn\'t say the Flyers have \"spent with no regard.\"

When they went and signed Briere, Hartnell, and Timmonen, they did so because they were coming off a dreadful season and had some very obvious needs. They addressed those needs, and at the time they were, along with Gagne, the only guys on the team making more than $3.5M. All three of those contract were also front loaded, in order to make room for the inevitable resignings of young players like Richards and Carter. Very smart.

Since signing those three the only big contract that have been given out by the Flyers were to keep young players on the roster. Guys like Richards, Carter, and Lupul. Are you honestly suggesting they should have let them walk? The Flyers have Richards locked up through the 2019/2020 season, and will probably give Carter a similar contract before he becomes an RFA, which is money well spent.

The Lupul contract was a bit much, but I think it was given with the intent of letting Knuble go and making Lupul and Giroux your top two RWs. However, given the availability of Bouwmeester, you need to free up some cap space, amking that $4.5M look a lot worse.

The reason the Flyers will make a push for Bouwmeester isn\'t because he\'s the big name on the market, but because he is a young stud that fills a need. I think if a big name center was available we wouldn\'t be talking about how the Flyers were trying to free up cap space to get him.

as far as putting all your money into a couple players go, how has that worked for the Pens? Crosby and Malkin made up over a third of their payroll last year. That seemed to work out OK.