Trade opportunity - Heatley for Toews+

[Chadosaur]

Keeper league dresses 2LW/2C/2RW/3Util/4D/2G. 5 player bench. No PIM or +/-, and goals are marginally favoured. My team:

C: E. Staal, Kopitar, Toews, Mueller
LW: Malkin (as per Yahoo), Nash, Nagy, Parise
RW: Cheechoo, Radulov, Rolston
D: Kaberle, Boyle, Bergeron, Pitkanen, Mara, J. Johnson
G: Kipper, Miller, Legace.

I\'m looking at Heatley\'s availability, and the other GM indicated he\'d be interested in my Toews. My question has multiple parts.

1. How close in value is Toews to Heatley?
2. The other GM doesn\'t have a 3rd G...does Miller or Legace even things up?
3. If not, what sort of extra value might be necessary to make it enticing?

[Dobber]

In a keeper league Toews will gain in value in about two months. It would almost be worth waiting before doing this deal. Then you won\'t have to give up as much extra.
Is Heatley a RW in your pool? If so, that would make it even easier. I wouldn\'t give up Miller though - he and kipper should be keepers.

[Chadosaur]

Thanks for the quick response, Dobber!

I actually had the same thought as you...wait a few weeks into the season before pulling the trigger. Not only would it showcase Toews\' value, but would give me a chance to see what Kopitar and Mueller will do.

Yes, Heatley is a RW, and I don\'t think there\'s any way that I don\'t do this deal...I\'d have no hesitation saying bye-bye to Rolston, cuz he\'s only a plug anyway. It\'s just a matter of what I may have to give up in addition to Toews, and the timing of it all. I\'m also not too worried about giving up Miller if necessary. Huet, Fernandez, Holmqvist and Norrena are available as plugs if need be, or Carey Price and Josh Harding are also available if I wanted to go young.

The main point of my question was what I might be able to offer in addition to Toews, because he\'s not going to take the deal straight up.

[Enapai]

Chadosaur -

Is your thought that this move might put you over the top for the season? Your team looks pretty strong all around. If you think so, I might look to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. In some regards I disagree with Dobber on this one (I think for the first time ever). Heatley is a top 5 forward. Toews has ALOT of talent and potential, but he has yet to step onto the ice for a game that means something. I see a fair amount of a learning curve this season. The Hawks are going to be pretty young this year and Toews could as just as easily start the season struggling as on fire. You cannot guarentee that waiting will ensure your stock with Toews goes up. Last year the Hawks were looking good for the first two weeks, then the injury bug took out two thirds of their top line and the team did not recover.

With Heatley, you know what your gonna get. Its good for you that the GM with Heatley has signalled interest in a particular player. If I wanted Heatley, I would look to pull a package together now, lest the GM you are looking to trade with loses interest whie you wait for Toews to gain value so that you have to give up less.

I do agree with Dobber in that I wouldn\'t part with Miller to make this happen. Looking at your roster, you look pretty strong at defense. I don\'t think parting with Legace or Rolston is such a loss, partiularly if I were adding Heatley. If you part with Legace, I probably would pickup Huet and watch the Habs closely, looking at replacing him with Halak or Price accordingly.

Good luck.

[Chadosaur]

Aah! Conflicting opinions!

If it was necessary to make the deal happen, what would be so bad about about giving up Miller? So I pick up Huet as a plug and go with Kipper/Legace/Huet. Say Miller is good for 40 wins, 5 SO. That\'s 95 points by our scoring system. By the same system, Huet\'s good for 30 wins, 3 SO, or 69 points. So I lose 26 points (ish).

Now say Heatley is good for 100 points including 25 that are PPG/GWG, or about 225 with our scoring system. Say Toews is good for 60 with 15 PPG/GWG, or about 135 in our system. That\'s a 90 point upgrade at RW (for next season only...it would even out over a number of years), plus I can still keep Radulov as a Util.

Maybe my logic (or math) is flawed, but I think I\'m still gaining significantly. Maybe I beat up my goalie spot a bit, but it could be worth it. Isn\'t it?

In the words of some strange Spanish person, \"I am so confuse!\"

[smoothfun]

i dealt getzlaf and swapped some pics from early to late for heatley,toews will be good but heatley is primed!remember he\'s just going into his , what , 5th season.

[andrewklassen]

I like your reasoning. I wouldn\'t sweat losing Miller to land Heatley. Your goaltending is still fine and Toews will take 3-4 years to touch Heatley\'s coattails.

Maybe ask for a draft pick on his end of the trade to start negotiations and see what comes back as a response.