WSmith vs ECowan vs RLeonard

[Feenom]

Being a Leaf fan automatically makes me temper my expectations. It comes with the territory. If he makes the top 6 then awesome if they deal him for immediate help then it’s expected. Just sit back and watch the Leaf brass screw this one up.

[TheNewKid]

Smith-Leonard-Cowan, I like all 3 for dynasty

[Belexus75]

I would argue that including him in a list with Smith and Leonard is absolutely overhyping Cowan.

If you rank Cowan this highly, surely you’d also include C. Barkey, C. Rehkopf, and W. Musty in the same level, as these players also had good OHL seasons?

When speaking of playoff success for Cowan, I’d also like to point out Servac Petrovsky. He just had himself a very nice U20 tournament, and tied for 1st in both Goals/game and Points/game. Due to that success, I’m curious how you would rank him on this list?

Smith and Leonard are both top prospects in the NHL. I hope Cowan can continue to build on his OHL success this season, but I think he is very far from being included in a tier with Leonard and Smith.

i agree with this, i would not put him on that list but we didnt do that OP did. I still think that overall he is not overhyped and im sticking by it...i live in this market and listen to all stations here and listen to fans that dont hide behind keyboard and majority have tempered expectations...

[zambronies]

i agree with this, i would not put him on that list but we didnt do that OP did. I still think that overall he is not overhyped and im sticking by it...i live in this market and listen to all stations here and listen to fans that dont hide behind keyboard and majority have tempered expectations...

Having read this, I think I agree with your previous posts now. I think the OP including him in the ranking, and people still hyping him up in the same conversation as Leonard/Smith is what people were arguing. I think Cowan can be a fine prospect, but for now, he’s not in the tier with the other two. Hope he continues to develop for the Leafs though!

[Bubba55]

I have to agree with the consensus here, while Cowen is a good prospect he is a tier below both Smith and Leonard.

[finnys_fanatsy]

Dang this place is awesome eh.

Full disclosure I wasn’t sure Cowan belonged here either but I’m a Sens fan so any Leafs news / hype I automatically dismiss. So I thought hey, maybe I’m being too jaded here and Cowan has something? I’ll agree he had a magnificent Jr season and still going but that lineup is a tough nut.


Keep it coming.

[rataylor22]

The disrespect for Cowan. His stats are absurd and he looked really good at their development camp last year. I can't see the future any better than the rest of you but saying he doesn't belong in the conversation? That's just arrogant.

The list of players who had D+1 seasons in the OHL like Cowan and never did much in the NHL is a mile long. Cowan’s season was great, but it wasn’t elite outlier or anything.

The list of players who had freshman seasons like Smith and Leonard is basically non-existent.

They are not in the same class.

[CaveatEmptorer]

All I know is that a lot of the scouting community and guys who specialize in this stuff have been raving about Cowan all year- and theyre not known for looking at prospects through the lens of any type of team bias. Im not sure hes in this tier yet- but you couldnt turn on a podcast this year without one scout or another raving about this kid...

[zambronies]

All I know is that a lot of the scouting community and guys who specialize in this stuff have been raving about Cowan all year- and theyre not known for looking at prospects through the lens of any type of team bias. Im not sure hes in this tier yet- but you couldnt turn on a podcast this year without one scout or another raving about this kid...

Is this Cowan’s burner account?

[CaveatEmptorer]

You got me- damnit!!

Lol- nah I just spend waaaaaay too much time listening to podcasts and researching this stuff- Im not even a fan personally. I looked at this draft profile and was skeptical to begin with- by the time the Leafs drafted him I was all the way out. Im just saying I listen to a ton of this content- follow all the models closely Rank Kings, Hockey Prospecting- and it was uncanny how much everyone accross the board liked him this year. As far as Im concerned hes the one that got away- Im just saying I think Ive been to the same sites/youtube chanells/discords that these guys seem to have been to and its pretty hard to argue this guys star is on the rise- I mean if you take stock in what the scouting and analytics community has to say... and i do- its a good way to get ahead of the trends

[rataylor22]

Were you only listening to Leafs podcasts? Most prospect podcasts talk far more about the current upcoming class than previous classes, so I disagree people have been raving about him all year. Look, he’s definitely earned his first round draft status that people were skeptical of when he was originally taken there, but he probably doesn’t even crack the top 15 of his current draft class in a redraft right now. As for prospect models, well…

IMG_5278.jpeg IMG_5279.jpeg

[CaveatEmptorer]

Thats a great start!

What you showed here was two guys staying static in their star probabilities- and tbh I thought Leonards would be higher- but you showed one guy who went up a whopping 13% and not just that he went up that much- the fact that thats up from an extremely meager 7%!! Its actually stunning growth under that model and really illustrates my argument on why hes getting so much hype from the analytics and scouting community.

Now Id love to set a trap and wait for your reductive comment where you write him off with that meager 20% figure but Ill spare you that- were just looking at getting to the truth of the matter right? I love that model but you need to look at each profile with a bit of nuance. EVERY single projection they make in their star and regular NHLer projection takes into account EVERY season before it- so when you factor in his very average seasons it stands to reason it will always be low- theres only so much you can go up in that model over a one season span- which makes sense right? The whole idea is the more seasons of elite production you have the better the chance is that that asset will indeed be elite.

So it stands to reason Smith and Leonard are the picks here- Ive never debated that- but the argument was "can Cowan get there?" and in terms of that question we would indeed be looking at an outlier. Now the problem is... outliers DO happen- lol! So now youve presented the data for me- Cowan has improved his own star probability by a massive degree. Thats a good first step towards finding a potential outlier. The next step is you listen to the scouts and podcast hosts out there on the ground level- you look for context clues- analytics that pop off the page or guys dropping superlatives with every second word when they discuss a guy- you pick the brains of the guys who make it their business to find the guys that are legit and you listen to what THEY have to say. For maybe the first time in history that information is out there, its free, its coming from people who are just passionate to share their opinion or are building their portfolios- you just have to take the time to listen to it- lol! In fact I think the experts that are advising on dobbers actual projections are finding that right now- I listen to EVERYTHING Haidi is on - theyll actually tell you and I understand that when they do (or dobber does) this whole narrative WILL change- it happens every year- but what i see in this thread is a few guys who got ahead of the curve here- and I just think its funny that now theyre getting the response theyre getting lol! This is actionable advice and its being scoffed at- dont get me wrong I understand its indicatve of a much larger problem- but its still sort of... odd.

So anyways- I was actually putting together the data on Cowan but I think Im going to skip it. Dobberforums going to dobberforum- and its just not worth the headache. If you think Cowans trash thats fine-Im actually not sure why I chimed in in the first place...

Hey and as a litmus test- this thread isnt that legendary yet- why dont we just ressurect when the guide drops and Cowan is one of the biggest risers? That sounds like a better plan to me...

[Belexus75]

Thats a great start!

What you showed here was two guys staying static in their star probabilities- and tbh I thought Leonards would be higher- but you showed one guy who went up a whopping 13% and not just that he went up that much- the fact that thats up from an extremely meager 7%!! Its actually stunning growth under that model and really illustrates my argument on why hes getting so much hype from the analytics and scouting community.

Now Id love to set a trap and wait for your reductive comment where you write him off with that meager 20% figure but Ill spare you that- were just looking at getting to the truth of the matter right? I love that model but you need to look at each profile with a bit of nuance. EVERY single projection they make in their star and regular NHLer projection takes into account EVERY season before it- so when you factor in his very average seasons it stands to reason it will always be low- theres only so much you can go up in that model over a one season span- which makes sense right? The whole idea is the more seasons of elite production you have the better the chance is that that asset will indeed be elite.

So it stands to reason Smith and Leonard are the picks here- Ive never debated that- but the argument was "can Cowan get there?" and in terms of that question we would indeed be looking at an outlier. Now the problem is... outliers DO happen- lol! So now youve presented the data for me- Cowan has improved his own star probability by a massive degree. Thats a good first step towards finding a potential outlier. The next step is you listen to the scouts and podcast hosts out there on the ground level- you look for context clues- analytics that pop off the page or guys dropping superlatives with every second word when they discuss a guy- you pick the brains of the guys who make it their business to find the guys that are legit and you listen to what THEY have to say. For maybe the first time in history that information is out there, its free, its coming from people who are just passionate to share their opinion or are building their portfolios- you just have to take the time to listen to it- lol! In fact I think the experts that are advising on dobbers actual projections are finding that right now- I listen to EVERYTHING Haidi is on - theyll actually tell you and I understand that when they do (or dobber does) this whole narrative WILL change- it happens every year- but what i see in this thread is a few guys who got ahead of the curve here- and I just think its funny that now theyre getting the response theyre getting lol! This is actionable advice and its being scoffed at- dont get me wrong I understand its indicatve of a much larger problem- but its still sort of... odd.

So anyways- I was actually putting together the data on Cowan but I think Im going to skip it. Dobberforums going to dobberforum- and its just not worth the headache. If you think Cowans trash thats fine-Im actually not sure why I chimed in in the first place...

Hey and as a litmus test- this thread isnt that legendary yet- why dont we just ressurect when the guide drops and Cowan is one of the biggest risers? That sounds like a better plan to me...

What is everybody's over/under on amount of burner accounts Emu has? im pretty sure this is one of them...

[Pengwin7]

Leonard
Smith
...
Cowan


I hedge Leonard out-front because I prefer wingers for fantasy production in the NHL.
Leonard is almost certainly a top line winger for future Washington.

Also - with SJ landing the #1... it sort of pegs Will Smith to be the future C2 of the Sharks. I don't love this - bad circumstance for Smith.
Maybe SJ considers shifting him to wing... but they already have Eklund and Bordeleau is pretty solid scoring prospects - both wingers...
So I really see them feeling C1 Celebrini, C2 Will Smith.


As rataylor22 said on Cowan... D+1 CHLers put up massive years all the time.

Nick Robertson threw down 55 goals in his D+1 season and Leafs fans were handing themselves future Stanley Cups for that.
Now... it's Easton Cowan. Temper, temper. London is so stacked that I think we could drop a 9-yeard old on the ice and the puck would bounce off them for 15 assists over the course of a season.

[Online PHI fans are doing similar up-expectations on Denver Barkey - who had 102pts to Cowan's 96pts in the regular season. The 5'-9" Barkey was picked 96th overall just last summer. He's got CHL game for sure... NHL is a different thing. D+1 CHL stats are probably the least transferrable NHLe stats out there. Just go to some Dobberprospects player charts on heavy D+1 CHLers... and there is a "wave" visual of that NHLe D+1 season skewing sooooo many guys' expected future role, say "1st line", way higher than it should be. I first learned this the hard way by trading for Sam Steel in his WHL D+1 season where he scored... wait for it... 131pts. Yes, 117pts in 339 NHLgp... 4th liner... that Sam Steel. So 2.0pts/gp in a D+1 CHL season could... could... translate to 0.33pts/gp in the NHL. This is how dependable D+1 CHL stats are.]

NCAA >> CHL

[random-d]

I'm not going to argue the point that the CHL isn't the NHL (that's obvious) but Cowan did also have a really impressive development camp and pre-season last year. That's something that puts him on a list that isn't a mile long and also the reason Barkey put up more points (he played 14 more games).