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Thread: Would i loose to much?

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    Default Would i loose to much?

    Trade offer. Dynasty League. sog, fow, hits, blocks, ppp, shp.

    I should decline but i still like the guys i would get. So is it that bad? Maybe a piece more to get?

    Lafreniere, Byfield, Stankoven for my Aho, Boldy, Kyrou.

    Decline? Accept?

    I still got Kaprizov, Petersson and some guys. So no Rebuild or something.

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Easy decline for me. You're hoping the guys you would acquire turn into the guys you already have
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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Nope. Proven for unproven. It may shake out someday but maybe not. You're taking the risk without enough upside.

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    The others have already said it, this is just a not.
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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    No thank you

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Quote Originally Posted by vivatherangers View Post
    Trade offer. Dynasty League. sog, fow, hits, blocks, ppp, shp.

    I should decline but i still like the guys i would get. So is it that bad? Maybe a piece more to get?

    Lafreniere, Byfield, Stankoven for my Aho, Boldy, Kyrou.

    Decline? Accept?

    I still got Kaprizov, Petersson and some guys. So no Rebuild or something.


    Boy... this one is interesting.
    So - I have two thoughts on this:

    1. If your team is competitive... if it feels "close"... you hold the guys you have - which ARE better and ARE proven.
    2. If your team feels too distant from the "top" or where you want to compete... I'm thinking... if your gut loves this one... you do it.

    For me,
    I've seen enough of Stankoven. I like him. I think he'll be better than Kyrou.
    My upside there... 80 Stankoven, 75 Kyrou.

    I like Lafreniere's upside... I think he can still do 80.
    I like Byfield's upside... I think he can still do 80.

    Aho is very, very much a proven 85pt player. He had 89pts this year with 32ppp. The 32ppp is a tad-high for me... and his 15ppp the previous year was VERY low.
    25-30 will put him around 85pts yearly. (He might do more... or less... that's where I average him.)

    Boldy. I'm a big Boldy believer. I love his style/pace/game. I think he's an 85pt guy yearly.
    Maybe 90 if MIN can get Yurov developped and with Kaprizov and Boldy and Rossi onto an electric PP1 unit.


    For me, what they are vs upside:

    85/85 Aho
    70/90 Boldy (I love Boldy... I think he's got enormous potential)
    75/75 Kyrou

    60/80 Lafreniere
    60/90 Byfield (*This is probably one of the hardest ones... sometimes I watch Byfield and love him... sometimes I watch him and don't love him... he's hard...)
    60/80 Stankoven


    The thing here.. the 2nd group is younger... and sexier.
    3 years from now... Aho & Kyrou will be age 29/30.
    And all the other guys will be age 25 or younger.


    So... if you don't feel like your team is "CLOSE"... then don't let your players start to get close to age30.
    In fantasy leagues - there's a lot of GMs that LOVE youth... and hate players getting to 30.
    I believe... NHLers... peak around 27. So Kyrou & Aho... they are there... and they will decline... ever so gradually... ever so... but yes, so.


    So... a judgment call.
    The Aho-side is squarely the better play now.
    The Aho-side is probably the better side in 3 years.
    But the Laf/Byfield side is sexier and younger... and that can be very REAL in fantasy hockey.


    This is a "know your league" / "know your leaguemates" sort of trade...
    I'm 50/50 on it.

    If I didn't LOVE my team... I'd be keen to consider the Laf/Byfield/Stankoven just to spice it up.
    I guarantee you have a few GMs in your league that find these guys to be... attractive.

    Oh baby...
    Let us know what you decide.

    For me... I'd maybe ask what he'd give for just Aho/Kyrou.
    That will - at very least - tell you what HE thinks of Matthew Boldy's upside.
    Some people LOVE Boldy... some people think he's just good.

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    i read this one and then stepped back to think about it... my thoughts are very much like P7's , he just laid it it much better than i would have lol..

    its basically a wash, just depending on where you're at being competitive. the guys you are bringing in will be in 2-3 yrs what the guys your moving out are now
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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Boy... this one is interesting.
    So - I have two thoughts on this:

    1. If your team is competitive... if it feels "close"... you hold the guys you have - which ARE better and ARE proven.
    2. If your team feels too distant from the "top" or where you want to compete... I'm thinking... if your gut loves this one... you do it.

    For me,
    I've seen enough of Stankoven. I like him. I think he'll be better than Kyrou.
    My upside there... 80 Stankoven, 75 Kyrou.

    I like Lafreniere's upside... I think he can still do 80.
    I like Byfield's upside... I think he can still do 80.

    Aho is very, very much a proven 85pt player. He had 89pts this year with 32ppp. The 32ppp is a tad-high for me... and his 15ppp the previous year was VERY low.
    25-30 will put him around 85pts yearly. (He might do more... or less... that's where I average him.)

    Boldy. I'm a big Boldy believer. I love his style/pace/game. I think he's an 85pt guy yearly.
    Maybe 90 if MIN can get Yurov developped and with Kaprizov and Boldy and Rossi onto an electric PP1 unit.


    For me, what they are vs upside:

    85/85 Aho
    70/90 Boldy (I love Boldy... I think he's got enormous potential)
    75/75 Kyrou

    60/80 Lafreniere
    60/90 Byfield (*This is probably one of the hardest ones... sometimes I watch Byfield and love him... sometimes I watch him and don't love him... he's hard...)
    60/80 Stankoven


    The thing here.. the 2nd group is younger... and sexier.
    3 years from now... Aho & Kyrou will be age 29/30.
    And all the other guys will be age 25 or younger.


    So... if you don't feel like your team is "CLOSE"... then don't let your players start to get close to age30.
    In fantasy leagues - there's a lot of GMs that LOVE youth... and hate players getting to 30.
    I believe... NHLers... peak around 27. So Kyrou & Aho... they are there... and they will decline... ever so gradually... ever so... but yes, so.


    So... a judgment call.
    The Aho-side is squarely the better play now.
    The Aho-side is probably the better side in 3 years.
    But the Laf/Byfield side is sexier and younger... and that can be very REAL in fantasy hockey.


    This is a "know your league" / "know your leaguemates" sort of trade...
    I'm 50/50 on it.

    If I didn't LOVE my team... I'd be keen to consider the Laf/Byfield/Stankoven just to spice it up.
    I guarantee you have a few GMs in your league that find these guys to be... attractive.

    Oh baby...
    Let us know what you decide.

    For me... I'd maybe ask what he'd give for just Aho/Kyrou.
    That will - at very least - tell you what HE thinks of Matthew Boldy's upside.
    Some people LOVE Boldy... some people think he's just good.

    Thanks all and thank you for this "great" answer. I will Try Aho/Kyrou and think about it. I will tell you how i decide.
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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    I’m im of the opinion that the upside to certainty ratio isn’t high enough to accept

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Hi, so without Boldy he wants a different Trade. He offered Byfield, Lafreniere, Chytil, Bourgault, Dean, Snuggerud. He wants: Shanangovich, Trey Augustine (I still got Gajan, Tarasov, Woll), Reichel, Aho, Kyrou.
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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Quote Originally Posted by vivatherangers View Post
    Hi, so without Boldy he wants a different Trade. He offered Byfield, Lafreniere, Chytil, Bourgault, Dean, Snuggerud. He wants: Shanangovich, Trey Augustine (I still got Gajan, Tarasov, Woll), Reichel, Aho, Kyrou.
    Snuggard is a nice piece to get back but I’d try to base a deal around Aho + some lesser players for Laf and Byfield. I still prefer your side to his

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    Quote Originally Posted by vivatherangers View Post
    Hi, so without Boldy he wants a different Trade. He offered Byfield, Lafreniere, Chytil, Bourgault, Dean, Snuggerud. He wants: Shanangovich, Trey Augustine (I still got Gajan, Tarasov, Woll), Reichel, Aho, Kyrou.

    Oh... this is pretty nice.
    So Boldy is out (who I love - with 90pt upside) from your side.
    But he's also not contributing Stankoven... that's fine. Stankoven looks great on-ice for Dallas... and he's got good game... but he's a lot of "motor"... and I don't see it being a forever thing.
    I also think Stankoven's game is NHL-ready now... and I think he's close to his "finished product". Most people just assume any player pacing for 60pts in rookie season will do 100pts some day.
    Small wingers have found their bodies/pace earlier than any other position - and for that reason - they are usually the ones that "look" incredible, most often, in their rookie seasons.


    I mean... you get to take advantage of possibly a career-year (sell high) on Sharangovich.
    Sharangovich IS a player I like... he's got spotty upside. Get a Calgary fan to give you deeper intel.
    I loved him when he was in Calgary but didn't get a chance to watch enough West Coast hockey this year.
    Sort of a "sneaky" move to add Sharangovich - that's not a small piece. It's significant.

    He's probably treating Trey Augustine as the future G1 of Detroit - which IS possible... and is also a 30/70... with only a 30% likelihood - based on historic goalie odds - of him becoming that bonafide #1.

    Lukas Reichel - mmm - I didn't see it this year. A lot of people loved his upside because he's top CHI F prospect with Bedard in CHI.
    But I'll tell you... IF Chicago goes with Demidov (W) as their #2 pick... I think you are looking at a plummeting value on Reichel.

    Lukas Reichel was the #17 overall pick in the 2020 draft to Chicago.
    He was drafted by STAN BOWMAN.
    Current GM, Kyle Davidson, did give him the bridge extension recently... but this.is.not.a.Kyle.Davidson.draftee.

    This is important. GMs love having their "own guys".
    Kyle Davidson is going to want his own guys around Bedard.
    ie - I don't have faith that Reichel is in the long-term CHI Bedard wing-spot. Sell him now - if you can. (My 2 cents.)


    The heart of this trade is:
    YOU GET: Byfield, Lafreniere... pieces prospects (I don't love any of these guys. Snuggerud had nice freshman year being flanked at MIN by Cooley/Knies... not sure if he'll ever get linemates to dominate a league like that ever again though)
    HE GETS: Aho, Kyrou, Sharangovich.... Augustine, Reichel

    Again - it's very close.
    For me - same theory... you are losing this trade this year, next year, probably 3 years.
    But in 3 years time, Aho is 29, Kyrou is 30... their trade-value will dip as they hit 30.

    Laf & Byfield WILL be very good player. Very good.
    Elite... TBD... we'll see.


    If you aren't a top3 team in the league... if it's me... I'm probably doing this deal and waiting to strike in 3+ years.
    You also have to have faith your league will last and be strong at that time and that other teams won't be stronger.

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    Wow. Thats more than a great description of your thoughts. Thanks a lot. So i will see the trade now with a different view. I go through the other teams and my chances for the next 3 years.

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Tough call. Aho and Kyrou are very good. I do believe Byfield is at least a PPG guy and Laf will be close…sharangovich meh. I still think Chytil could have some solid upside 60pts perhaps. Dean is a good bottom sizer as a ceiling in my opinion and Bourgault though he has had blue chip production in junior really concerns me after this year. Even as an oilers homer I’d probably say steer clear. I was offered Bourgault for J. Roy and declined it. But Snuggerud is a beauty piece. Very tough call because Aho and Kyrou are so good in their own right. I do think you will get that value back in a few years from AL and QB but this trade will hurt your team for next year so I guess it depends upon how close are you to winning??

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    Default Re: Would i loose to much?

    Hi, I accepted the offer. I saw Laffy yesterday and pull the trigger. I know, was emotion not brain. But i like it ;-) Thanks for your support here.

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