The Next MacKenzie Weegar ?

[Pengwin7]

(I don't have the answer - just that... as a community... it's a great discussion to help us in our keeper leagues).


In one of my multi-cat leagues (with Hit/Block), MacKenzie Weegar was the #4 defenseman this past year.
And... it's not a massive surprise... he's been trending in that direction for a while.

It 'feels' like a surprise because Weegar went from being a defensive-D man...
To a dD with "plus" value to his on-ice shot metrics...
To a dD with emerging points due to his growing TOI from a solid game...
To a d/oD playing spot PP2 time...
To a d/oD that got traded and found himself getting consistent PPTOI.

His stats from Yahoo - listing those gorgeous Hits/Blk numbers:
https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/6184/

The emergence in PPP over the years: 0,0,1,0,3,3,3,15


Q: Is it ridiculous that he's getting PP time?
A: Maybe not. In his last QMJHL year... he put up 59pts in 61gp. His AHL years were 10p/31gp... 24p/62gp... 36p/60gp... so a growing rate there with each year.

He's not huge... 6' tall.
But he does everything well... and the emergence of the game suggests (...) that he has good-to-great hockey IQ and pace...
He has adapted to the game very well.

Also - 7th round pick.
Do you know who else was a 7th round pick with a good brain... Joe Pavelski!
NHL smarts... grow... they still grow... they feel the pace/movement of everything around them and adapt to how they can take advantage of these things.


About 10 years ago there was a thread about "40 point D-man out of nowhere"...
And I said "Trevor Daley"... and a couple guys laughed...
But Daley paced for 40pts that year (2014-15)... simply because DAL didn't have better options for running their PP.



So... who is the next MacKenzie Weegar?... or, better phrased, the "closest thing out there"...
Qualifiers:
1. A guy who has been playing 5+ years of NHL action...
2. A guy not "known" as "Offensive" to his D-game
3. Not gotten a sniff of PPTOI because the team has better players...
4. But a guy whose game is "good enough" where IF he ends up on team with better opportunity (specifically PPTOI - only way to get 40+ points from a dD-man)...
He might *pop*.


I've never gone looking for it...
Because Trevor Daley years and MacK Weegar years are far between (maybe 1 guy every 5-10 years)...

But... is there another one out there?!?


[My first 'off my head' answer is Jaccob Slavin-CAR... he keeps having oD brought into CAR... TonyD... Burns... but he almost got a chance to run it in 18-19 and 21-22... 7ppp each of those years. This said, Slavin & Burns & Orlov are all UFAs in summer 2025 for CAR... and Morrow & Nikishin are both in the system... so there are a lot of things that would have to fall right for him to get that PPTOI with CAR.]

[loppantorkel]

I keep wondering what the ceiling of Forsling is. He keeps improving and has a few more offensive options ahead of him. Maybe he has an extra dimension to his game?

[Eskimo Brother]

Interesting question, and I think Slavin is a great example of who one of those guys could be, though I agree that the situation doesn't make it likely.

Couple of names and thoughts from me:
Travis Sanheim - Already had a jump last year, going from a career high of 35 points back in 2018-19, and jumping to a 44-point season this past year. Only five PPPs, some decent-to-great scoring years in juniors/minors, and 16 points in 22 games to kick off last season showing what the ultimate upside might be. Also no given for a perfect PP specialist in PHI, though Drysdale, York, and maybe Zamula will probably get the first looks.

Ryan Pulock - He's your big multi-cat guy like Weegar. Generally a 30-point guy, he has a career-high of 11 PPPs way back, but in the years since the pandemic, he has a high of six in a season. Could pop in a different situation, but his NTC keeping him behind Noah Dobson likely limits the offensive upside. Not a lot of other PP options wiht the Islanders.

Dante Fabbro - With Ryan Ufko still years away as the likely eventual heir to the PP role in Nashville post-Josi, Fabbro could be the next one up right now if there was an injury to Josi. Higher scoring D in the NCAA, but has had some varying results so far in five full NHL seasons. The more minutes he plays, he exponentially seems to do better. A lot less proven than the other guys, but he has worked on the defensive reliability, and could see the offence start to catch up soon too.

Jake Walman - Maybe the guy the most primed for this kind of offensive breakout, though he doesn't have the same hit or shot numbers that other multi-cat guys provide, but I do think the offence is coming. He's another one of those slow-burn guys, as I remember him being a highly regarded guy on one of my dynasty farm teams nearly a decade ago. A few high-quality NCAA and AHL years since, but also plagued by a few injuries that slowed him down and masked the eventual upside. Detroit probably lets Ghost walk this year, and doesn't sign another Dman in the meantime. That gives them six NHL defencemen once Seider is re-signed. Simon Edvinsson should see some games too, while Holl and/or Petry may get scratched on occasion. Walman will be a staple in the lineup though, and with Seider getting the heavy minutes, Walman cap mop up a lot of the PP time. Career PPP progression of 0, 0, 1, 2, 4... and 82-game point pace progression of 0, 7, 16, 23, 27... I think next year 10+ PPPs and 40+ pts is certainly in the cards.

[Pengwin7]

^Good names.

Personally, I've always thought/read of Fabbro & Walman as "offensive" D-men... so in a lot of leagues - they were drafted/owned as such.

Walman was, like Vince Dunn, a potential heir-apparent to Pietrangelo in STL... but STL didn't like something about him (or Vince Dunn!) and they had to go elsewhere for opportunity - and went with Krug. Then they drafted Perunovich.

Fabbro could be... what a spot though to be behind Roman Josi! Ugh. But - ya never know. Guys like Brandon Montour & Mike Matheson found/lucked(?) into a team with an eventual PP1 spot... but again, both very much considered (highly touted, i.e. 1st-3rd round) offensive D-men.

Pulock, too. All I read was "huge shot"... "huge shot"... for years... and then the NHL really transitioned HARD & FAST to heavy-wristers through traffic from the point... and not slapshots... and I think this squashed perceived Pulock O-value. I think his actual-NHL value plummeted for upside with the change in NHL D-man shot-style.

Sanheim, for me, is/was a "tweener"... he was behind Provorov... and will be behind Cam York and also, now (!), Jamie Drysdale.
He had a year of use... but it's going to be about done, I think.
He's now a bit of a "tease" with a 44pt season - probably will be his career high.
Sanheim would (!!!) be a pretty-good answer (though he was 1st round pick, so - no surprise) if he was still tucked behind somebody and hadn't, yet, had that recent 44pt season.

Pretty sure both Pulock & Sanheim had draft pedigree too... mid-1st round for both of them, I believe.


But definitely some REP for a long answer.
Truth is - there's not really any of these guys (Weegars) - so your list may be as "good as it gets"!!!


[extra points, going forward, for 4th-7th round nominees]

[Pengwin7]

I keep wondering what the ceiling of Forsling is. He keeps improving and has a few more offensive options ahead of him. Maybe he has an extra dimension to his game?

Yes - Forsling for sure.
He is "here" among people that are deep into hockey. Everybody watching Florida hears his teammates/media-crew talk SUPER highly about him.
IF Brandon Montour isn't re-signed (possible, since FLA needs cash if they want to keep Reinhart)... he could go to 50+ points... probably will. Only needs a 10-15ppp season.
I don't believe anybody can get Forsling cheap in any fantasy league - the upside in stats, IMO, seems like it's "going to happen" - FLA will make way for it.
They just gave him $5.8m x 8 years on Mar7.. so... they love him.


So... Forsling is absolutely a great past/retrospective answer. Former 5th round pick!
C+ for that answer now.
B+ for that answer two years ago.
A+ for that answer three years ago - say, after his 17pt in 43gp FLA season.
[I say this... because Forsling has put up ~35+ even-strength points for three straight seasons... so his offensive upside is a surprise to nobody deep in hockey]


Speaking towards Forsling - I remember when he was picked up on waivers by FLA (from CAR) not long after CAR had acquired him for peanuts from Chicago. per capfriendly - date was Jan.9 2021.
New FLA GM Bill Zito made that move... and looking at Zito since replacing Tallon in Sept 2020... what an effin roster build. Holy effin cow.

[loppantorkel]

Yes - Forsling for sure.
He is "here" among people that are deep into hockey. Everybody watching Florida hears his teammates/media-crew talk SUPER highly about him.
IF Brandon Montour isn't re-signed (possible, since FLA needs cash if they want to keep Reinhart)... he could go to 50+ points... probably will. Only needs a 10-15ppp season.
I don't believe anybody can get Forsling cheap in any fantasy league - the upside in stats, IMO, seems like it's "going to happen" - FLA will make way for it. They just gave him $5.8m x 8 years. on Mar7.. so... they love him.

Yea, I get Forsling isn't a hidden gem for a +50p upside with a bit of pp time. ...and maybe you're just asking for the 20p guys, but then I'm not sure why around 40p Jaccob Slavin would be a much greater pick. Forsling is still ranked over 100 in hits/blocks yahoo, with a huge +/- advantage. If he becomes a +50p player, he might crack top 70 maybe?

For me the question about Forsling is, as I brought up in the initial post - what's his ceiling? If he never goes above 55p, then you're right - he's not an answer to your question. If he tops out at 70p, I think I deserve an A+ q-:

It all depends on how much he keeps improving. I'm not predicting he'll get to 70p, but he's gone above expectations several times before.

[Pengwin7]

but then I'm not sure why around 40p Jaccob Slavin would be a much greater pick.

Oh - for clarity - I don't think Slavin is a good pick. C- there.

Forsling is much better answer.
You assumed I though my pick was good... LOL... but I don't.
Everybody knows who Slavin is... and he has higher general fantasy "rep" than Forsling.


Forsling > Slavin


But yes... a 20-30pt D-man, drafted 4th-7th round, is still "hidden" for value in fantasy circles. (Slavin's 42pt season makes him "not good" as a pick...)
So that, 20-30pt range D-men... would be probably the better "target" for an answer.
(ex. Trevor Daley had 10 years and a career-high of 27pts when I pegged him as possibly doing 40pts back in 14/15.)

I'm hoping we can find/discuss... a D-man... with very, very minimal obvious hints of his potential offensive upside... enough where your other leaguemates haven't spotted it yet...

[Eskimo Brother]

Fair point that Walman and Fabbro were both more highly regarded "offensive" types early in their careers. If we're looking at the real out-of-nowhere kind of player, then may I present Mikey Anderson.
Unfortunately he may have missed the window this year as Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke are coming up and likely to eat all the PP time available, but he does have that same kind of look of a quiet, smart player who had some decent seasons in juniors but nothing overly flashy. His team's lack of shooting percentage when he's on the ice I think has really brought his numbers down, but he looks to me like someone that could hit another level in the right situation. Career high of 20 points so far, four full seasons plus one game in a fifth. LA has some scoring up front, Doughty now turning 35. The window is open, though he's not the closest one to it at the moment.

Fun fact, Anderson has only two games with over 1:20 of PP ice time in his career. Once was as a rookie, and the other was the 2022-23 season, and that is when he scored his only career PPPt (a goal).

That's about all I can come up with for now.

[Pengwin7]

Matt Roy.
Maybe... maybe... ???
Six seasons, nothing above 26pts yet, not more than 2ppp in a season, 7th round pick.


Thing is... I haven't watched enough LAK games to know if he has the "upside".
[maybe somebody else has studied this guy - I haven't... yet!]

152 hit / 197 blk...
That's very MacK Weegar in those categories...


But... WCHA & AHL stats aren't really THAT suggestive towards offense.

[Pengwin7]

...then may I present Mikey Anderson....

I actually owned Mikey for several years in WHL.
I watched him quite a bit because he paired/clicked well with Doughty and I think they've been D-partners for like 4-5 years now!
(This being 3-4 years ago I watched him. But at $4m cap hit, he just didn't have enough offense to be fantasy-relevant, if memory serves I moved him for either a 2nd/3rd round WHL pick.)

Owned him in tandem with his brother, Joey, actually - when Joey had a good season with AHL & NJ.
I don't think Mikey has it though... he's solid... but his O-game is very limited.


ps. As a mostly youth/men's league defenseman... I love D-man talk WAY more than most hockey fans... to a fault.

[Eskimo Brother]

I like the Matt Roy answer, definitely up there. Maybe even a better answer than Anderson, though I do wonder if Roy isn't settled enough into the NHL that he is what he is at this point.

Looking at Weegar for outlines/hints, he only had three full seasons before his big 55pt pop, and there were only hints in that last season prior with 33 pts, 1.7 shots per game, and an IPP of 40%. Funny thing is that his 55pt season didn't even have much PP exposure, which didn't come until just this last year where he got back to the 50-point plateau with a big jump in power play points.

Armed with that, I went back to the defence board, and was able to pick out a few more names.

Ty Emberson, Artem Zub, Martin Fehervary, Mason Lohrei, S. Walker.

All of these guys have the multi-category fill that you're looking for. The oldest is Walker at 29, but he lost a couple of years due to a bad knee injury. He hasn't necessarily hit his peak, though even if he does improve from here it won't be a long peak, as the age related decline would then start to kick in. Also, he's on Colorado behind Makar, Toews, and Girard, with Gulyayev's KHL contract expiring in two years too.

Lohrei and Emberson are both coming off of their rookie years, but they were slightly older rookies, and have a lot of across the board stat stuffing, to go with an under-appreciated IPP. Lohrei put up 1.7 shots per game in Q1, but then probably got reigned in a little and wasn't sheltered quite as much. One shot per game for Emberson, but he was on SJ, so it's tough to fault him too much.

Artem Zub and Martin Fehervary probably fit the mould best of what you're looking for. Going into their 5th and 4th full seasons respectively, both players are defensively responsible, were never viewed as the top offensive prospect, blocked by Chabot/Chychrun etc and Carlson, there could be an opportunity for both with some players moving on and in the rumour mill (plus Carlson is getting old). Sanderson and Sandin may get in the way, and the shot numbers aren't quite there, but the IPP numbers line up at least to indicated there's more than their 25/20pt seasons that they have put up so far.

...as you can see I can get way into these Dman deep dives too.

[Pengwin7]

Fehervary is a guy who peaked my interested when he did 17pts in 24gp in Hershey in 20-21.
I think I've mentioned that to you in WHL discussion.
[He was once a rostered WHL-Spitfire!]

But... 3g/14a... one never knows - especially with AHL - how many of those are (what I call) "token assists" - from puck-touches with good linemates.
Hershey has rostered a mostly veteran powerhouse AHL team for many years now... really hard team to get a vibe on their players in AHL.
(Honestly - I don't have hours in my day to check if a guys AHL assists are crafty!)

Emberson and Lohrei I haven't seen play enough.

Zub - from everything I gathered - is a lumbering dD... but maybe OTT see different.
Then again... maybe he's got some Chara in him. Though - that said - the days of a hard point shot being of value are gone.

Sean Walker looked like he had DEFINITE upside from watching him in PHI this year.
He'd be on my radar for sure... though, if he stays in COL - totally roadblocked.

I already sent you rep... but I'd send you more, if I could, great nominees!!!

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, just trying to cover all the bases. Not sure I totally see it from Zub or Fehervary, while Emberson and Lohrei as late bloomers are longshots, but if anyone that I haven't mentioned that fits your initial criteria ends up popping in the next year or two, I will be very surprised.

[Pengwin7]

SJ was a team I went throwing darts on last year.
They need a PP1 D-man.

I thought Leon Gawanke (career AHL D-man with ManMoose) had a shot. He did not.
And Calen Addison was brought in... but I don't think he can play NHL defense.
They grabbed Ty Emberson off waivers just before start of season and HAD to roster him on pro... but I don't think he's got it.

Henry Thrun might be a guy - but he's a *prospect*.

I mean... as a consideration to this thread... SJ went putting Jacob McDonald out there on their PP a lot.
He would be a great answer... but he sucks. Not sure what SJ was doing with him out there. He's not even Trevor Daley upside!
Talk about some interesting stats... 34gp: 7 goals, TWO assists, 3ppg/1ppa.
That leaves him ONE even-strength assist in 34 NHL games. Come.the.eff.on. Awful. My cats could do that.


Probably Shak Mukhmadulin and Thrun will be guys, but they are still high-upside prospects - so not really in THIS thread convo.

So... SJ is a team to have eyes on for free agency.
I'm starting to think Grier is just throwing darts for future D-men though.

[loppantorkel]

Oh - for clarity - I don't think Slavin is a good pick. C- there.
...
But yes... a 20-30pt D-man, drafted 4th-7th round, is still "hidden" for value in fantasy circles. (Slavin's 42pt season makes him "not good" as a pick...)
So that, 20-30pt range D-men... would be probably the better "target" for an answer.
(ex. Trevor Daley had 10 years and a career-high of 27pts when I pegged him as possibly doing 40pts back in 14/15.)

I'm hoping we can find/discuss... a D-man... with very, very minimal obvious hints of his potential offensive upside... enough where your other leaguemates haven't spotted it yet...

Okay, you had me fooled by that example. Conceptually though, I think both Forsling and Slavin suit your description of D-men who may have had their points production suppressed by lack of opportunity and low expectations from where they were drafted. They're just at a higher level and people are aware of potential upside, but there's still a question about their upside and they still may be undervalued in fantasy. You have Forsling as a "+50" guy given pp opportunity, and you value him as such - still just potential +50p if he gets an opportunity. That's nowhere near Weegar value and I assume no one who's "deep into hockey" will value Forsling as being there.
Are you willing to put an offensive ceiling on Forsling - where does he top out points wise the upcoming 5 years? 55? 60? 65? 70?

..but it's the defensive, unknown D you're looking for. More the Artem Zubs with lower production who might pop a few seasons. Can't say I have any specific players come to mind. I had some hopes for Marcus Pettersson, beside EK65, the past season, but no explosion of points..