Art Ross Tracker: Will McDavid(5) Pass Gretzky(10)?

[loppantorkel]

Voted tie.
He's on his way beating Gretzky's Lindsey Award record though.

[dejeanneret]

I think Art Ross and Hart Trophies have been confused

Doh! You're absolutely right. My bad.

[rataylor22]

Mario Lemieux won the Art Ross back to back at age 30 and 31 in the 95-96 and 96-97 seasons. Since then (25 years), only 2 players over 30 have won the Art Ross, and one (MSL) did it in a lockout shortened season. To tie, McDavid would have to win 2 in his 30s. To pass, he'll have to win 3. I don't see it happening, so I'll take the under. But he'll get close and I won't ultimately be surprised if he does it. Based on aging models he's already at the end of his statistical prime, and he's definitely the type of player who breaks models, but I don't think he will break it that much.

[LawMan]

Mario Lemieux won the Art Ross back to back at age 30 and 31 in the 95-96 and 96-97 seasons. Since then (25 years), only 2 players over 30 have won the Art Ross, and one (MSL) did it in a lockout shortened season. To tie, McDavid would have to win 2 in his 30s. To pass, he'll have to win 3. I don't see it happening, so I'll take the under. But he'll get close and I won't ultimately be surprised if he does it. Based on aging models he's already at the end of his statistical prime, and he's definitely the type of player who breaks models, but I don't think he will break it that much.

This is a great breakdown. adding in Gretzky's wins, his last one came in 93-94 when he was 33 years old.
McDavid is 26, giving him 7 more seasons until he hits 33. So he would have to win 6 out of 7 going forward.
Requires an almost perfect run and no seasons lost to injury, or another superstar getting hot and maybe one more win in his 34+ years...
Will be tough but McDavid is the one guy who can possibly do it.

[rataylor22]

Oh yea, to be clear I won't be surprised if McDavid does it. He's awesome. It's just statistically unlikely based off age.

[lucafen4]

I think age is a bit less relevant for elite athletes compared to decades ago.
Players seem to perform at elite levels longer.

I mean, Karlsson at 33 just dropped 101pts, by far a career high.
McDavid's shelf-life as elite might be extended to age 36, 37 before we see significant drop off.

That said, I think there's a real possibility Draisaitl walks in 2 years as a UFA.
This would hinder McDavid significantly