Final standings
Screen Shot 2023-04-15 at 8.46.30 PM.png
Congrats to Eskimo Brother!
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Final standings
Screen Shot 2023-04-15 at 8.46.30 PM.png
Congrats to Eskimo Brother!
12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6/winner keeps 7; G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO
3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6D, 2G, 5 bench
C - McDavid, Crosby, Tavares, Hertl
LW - DeBrincat, Boldy, Lafreniere
RW - Meier, Miller, Boeser, Nichushkin
D - Dobson, Karlsson
G - Jarry, Luukkonen
Was trying to find this thread but I suck with navigating on a phone…
Congrats EB!! Took the lead and held it the rest of the year. Well deserved win!!
Learning experience for me for sure, for a setup pretty different.
Great idea! Draft was lots of fun and hope for a year 2.
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Those Devils really made the difference for me.
- - - Updated - - -
Had a lot of fun with this draft. Thanks all, and looking forward to next year!
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Congrats EB, yes this was a super fun draft and enjoyed watching the season pan out. I’ll come back next year for sure
Without me, it's only "aweso".
This was awesome. Thanks so much for the work and particularly for the spread sheet! That was really great. Looking forward to this again.
12 team Yahoo Roto keeper (keep 3)
9 F, 6 D; roster 3 G max
G,A,PPP,SOG,BLKS,HITS - W,SO,SV%,Saves
F: B Tkachuk, Stutzle, Eriksson Ek, Necas, Konecny, Cooley, Boldy, Lehkonen, Tippett
D: Dahlin, Seider, Matheson, Durzi, Addison, Mintyukov
G: Hill, Husso
IR:
Bench: L Hughes, Merzlikins, Terry, Tuch
Congrats, Eskimo Bro! Solid win!
We have similar theories (go after Goals & Team Defense first) - but you executed way better.
It would be interesting to see a full analysis of picks.
There were 12 rounds of 8 picks = 96 picks for the 32 teams x 3 categories.
I'd love to see where people drafted their value points.
I feel like I didn't find any "VALUE". (edit: Following post reveals that COL-D and NJ-D were the two picks where I made points over expected.)
Round 1 should've all been 30-32pt value for our picks. And here, people are most likely having painful MISSES if they didn't get that.
Round 2 should've all been 27-29pt value for our picks. Similar as Round 1. Wonder if anybody did snipe a 29+ value.
Round 3... 25-26pt value
Round 4... 22-24pt value
Round 5... 19-21pt value
Round 6... 17-18pt value. (Midway).
...
Round 7... 14-17pt value expected.
Round 8... 11-13pt value expected.
Round 9... 9-10pt value expected.
Round 10... 6-8pt value expectd.
Round 11... 3-5pt value expected.
Round 12... 1-2pt value expected per pick. Here, unless there were options... teams were "lucking" or "unlucking" into what was left for them.
My picks:
Round 1 (8oa) - CGY D. Expected points 30, Actual points 30. Analysis: Great pick, 3rd best shots against.
Round 2 (9oa) - COL O. Expected points 30, Actual points 22.5. Analysis: Unlucky. Way, way too many injuries. Possibly most key GP lost in NHL this year.
Round 3 (24oa) - PIT O. Expected points 25. Actual points 17. Analysis: Bad pick. Well, Petry being injured didn't help. That was unlucky. But the Pens are just old and didn't have enough supporting scoring.
Round 4 (25oa) - CAR O. Expected points 25. Actual points 18. Analysis: ???. I'm not sure what was up with this team - especially with Burns addition.
Round 5 (40oa) - NYR O. Expected points 19. Actual points 21. Analysis: Solid Pick. NYR was a very good team - and they mostly avoided injuries and got more offense at trade deadline.
Round 6 (41oa) - NJ D. Expected points 19. Actual points 28. Analysis: AMAZING pick. This was probably my favourite pick - as the NJ D was already solid and was bound to better with Palat and maturing F group.
...
halfway
...
Round 7 (56oa) - COL D. Expected points 14. Actual points 19. Analysis: Great pick. Team defense is one of my favourite expertises (I feel) of NHL analysis. With Byram maturing, I thought this would be solid.
Round 8 (57oa) - EDM D. Expected points 14. Actual points 14. Analysis: Meh.
Round 9 (72oa) - DET G. Expected points 9. Actual points 8. Analysis: Meh. A point less than place. I'll be honest, I pick goalies last (in most leagues) because I haven't EVER figured out how to predict goaltending in hockey. Feels like a big luck-play.
Round 10 (73oa) - SEA G. Expected points 9. Actual points 3. Analysis: Painful miss here. I thought Grubauer might be solid in 2nd year behind this D. He wasn't injured, then Martin Jones looked good and then stunk. Goalies...
Round 11 (88oa) - MTL G. Expected points 3. Actual points 7. Analysis: Lucky - well, because goalies are crapshoots (IMO) - if you draft one late, they'll probably do better than where you draft them. This one did.
Round 12 (89oa) - CHI G. Expected points 3. Actual points 11. Analysis: See above.
Summary:
I liked my draft strategy - would/will do it again.
But COL injuries hurt that O-total pretty badly.
The PIT-O was just a bad pick... so for that - I definitely didn't deserve a win... I would've had to get lucky.
The 5th place finish, for me, wasn't so bad based on my analysis above.
I didn't stumble into any luck - except that which I knew I'd get from late drafting goalie SV%.
All this said - it was good seeing EskimoBro win - as he had a strategy that I thought was very comparable.
He did a great job drafting.
A look at the lucky/unlucky/unexpected of NHL-Offense this year:
*LUCKY*
2) 305gf Boston Bruins. Aging team somehow clicked with the big 3 on separate lines: Zacha-Krejci-Pastrnak... wow. Team went 7th round.
3) 296gf Buffalo Sabres. I don't think anybody saw this coming. Team went final three rounds.
6) 289gf Seattle Kraken. Ditto. Team drafted second last round.
*UNLUCKY*
10) 280gf Colorado Avalanche. A lot of key injuries - almost all year for Landeskog, Nichu missed 39gp, MacKinnon missed 11gp, Makar missed 22gp.
14) 272gf Vegas Golden Knights. Mark Stone injured for majority of year. PP1 Shea Theodore also out for huge chunk.
20) 260gf Calgary Flames. Ouch to whoever drafted them. We know Gaudreau & Tkachuk left... but Huberdeau/Kadri/Weegar should've been replacement value or close.
30) 214gf Columbus Blue Jackets. Werenski out almost full year and Laine out for huge portion.
Some teams slipped incredibly from previous year (COL-3, STL-4, MIN-5, CGY-6, CAR-9, WAS-10, PIT-11, NAS-12 were ranks from previous season 2021-22)
Teams I banked on to get value from did the opposite. Picks I thought I relied on didn't
I believe I had 2nd choice of where to draft from and I think I'd pick a different spot and work things differently.
Only Rangers Def and NYI goalies did better than expected for me.
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12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6/winner keeps 7; G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO
3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6D, 2G, 5 bench
C - McDavid, Crosby, Tavares, Hertl
LW - DeBrincat, Boldy, Lafreniere
RW - Meier, Miller, Boeser, Nichushkin
D - Dobson, Karlsson
G - Jarry, Luukkonen
Yeah, the scoreboard was amazing! Really helped visualizing how it all fit together.
My picks:
Round 1 (4oa) - TOR O. Expected points 31, Actual points 24. Analysis: High floor for the Leafs. The Matthews injury hurt, but not too bad.
Round 2 (13oa) - TB O. Expected points 28, Actual points 25. Analysis: Another high floor offence that panned out well but not perfect.
Round 3 (20oa) - CGY O. Expected points 26. Actual points 14. Analysis: Bad pick. Entire team flopped and Huberdeau halved his point total.
Round 4 (29oa) - SEA D. Expected points 23. Actual points 31. Analysis: Perfect. They were a top defence last year, run on analytics, and added some defensively responsible forwards as reinforcements. Key to my strategy was the bad teams falling even though they would have one of decent shot suppression or sv%.
Round 5 (36oa) - NJD O. Expected points 20. Actual points 28.5. Analysis: Pegging the NJD breakout was key for me in a lot of ways this year, but especially in this draft.
Round 6 (45oa) - DAL D. Expected points 17. Actual points 24. Analysis: Great value for my second D team. The whole Stars team was improved.
...
halfway
...
Round 7 (52oa) - MIN D. Expected points 15. Actual points 16. Analysis: Fair value here. Thought MIN would be a little better than this at controlling defensive play, but injuries and slumps especially by their checking line centred by JEE really held them back.
Round 8 (61oa) - FLA G. Expected points 12. Actual points 14. Analysis: Meh - Goalies.
Round 9 (68oa) - NJ G. Expected points 10. Actual points 22. Analysis: My second big NJD jump. Banking on the big improvement for them it only made sense that their atrocious sv% from last year would improve.
Round 10 (77oa) - DET D. Expected points 8. Actual points 22. Analysis: Wow, another huge win here. The offseason acquisitions really made a big difference.
Round 11 (84oa) - PHI G. Expected points 4. Actual points 12. Analysis: Quoting P7 here "Lucky - well, because goalies are crapshoots (IMO) - if you draft one late, they'll probably do better than where you draft them. This one did."
Round 12 (93oa) - ARZ G. Expected points 2. Actual points 16. Analysis: See above. - I was actually hoping for ARZ here because they were always going to allow 35+ shots per game, so all they had to do was only have a GAA of 3.30 or something and they would provide plus value. Having the reinforcements of Ingram (who I'm a big fan of) was sneaky as well.
Summary:
I liked my draft strategy - would/will do it again.
A lot of things went right to get me to the top. Things like CGY flopping always happen, but having only one "bad" pick is incredible luck. Not really repeatable year to year, but we'll see how it goes again this coming season.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Holy cow - I had no idea Detroit's team defense, by shots against per game, did so well!
Damn. All they need to do is score & get some goaltending and they'll be set.
D should only get better with Seider maturing, a fuller year from Chiarot, and Edvinsson coming.
You crushed it on TeamD and Goalie points!!!
No weak spots on my team
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Hey what date do you think we should start this this year?
We made our first selections starting Sept. 29 and last pick was made Oct. 5.
My only input is I think we should aim to have our picks finalized prior to preseason games starting which is ~Sept 23rd.
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