(Predicted NHL Trade) Penguins and Maple Leafs

[Kraftster]

SuperOne wrote:

Kraftster wrote:

Quite frankly, its too much talent going from the Pens in your original scenario, not to mention that Shero will not mess with long-term to gain a 1.5 month PP QB. Also adding to what I feel is a lopsided proposal is the fact that I think you are overvaluing your statement that the Leafs are also providing cap relief to the Pens. Cap relief for what? To sign Shanahan. No thank you. There is essentially no long-term cap relief being offered to the Pens unless you consider losing a pending RFA as cap relief, I wouldn\'t, since, as an RFA Staal would be attractive enough that no one would even consider his contract as something that detracted from his value.

Kaberle is a great player and he\'s signed to a very affordable deal, but, Whitney is signed for longer, and, at some point during his deal, he should cross paths with Kaberle and eventually be the better defenseman. This is all while still on his current deal. It might be a slight upgrade right now, but, at worst its a downgrade long term given the length and affordability of Whitney\'s deal, and, at best its a longterm lateral move.

Staal is the real wildcard of the group, but, I can\'t imagine the Pens trading Staal without getting long-term winger help in return, or, a first-round pick plus a winger prospect. I mean, this is a recent second overall pick. I do hope the Pens look to deal Staal this offseason, but, I think you are drastically undervaluing him. He has been very good in the postseason thus far in his limited experience as well. Shero will not be looking to deal Staal for anyting less than full value when he could be looking at a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 2x 1st, 2nd, 3rd compensation in an offer sheet this summer. No rush to move Staal.

All that being said, I would be interested in the Pens acquiring Antropov as a rental this year. Perhaps, a pick + Carl Sneep or Brian Strait based trade. Or if Shero really likes him, maybe Alex Grant+ for Antro+.

Also, the Penguins contract situation next season is much more dire than many seem to believe. I think the common mistake is that people leave out Malkin\'s extension kicking in, and the $5 that adds to the team\'s current cap number.

If you assume 1) Jordan Staal resigns around $4 and 2) Goligoski is resigned around $3, then you have the following.

$21 million on 3 centers.
$18.5 on 6 Dmen (Gonchar, Whitney, Orpik, Goligoski, Eaton, Letang)
$6 in goal (Fleury + backup)

So, basically give or take a few hundred thousand here or there, you are looking at $44-45 million for three centers, your starting D, and your two goalies.

Add to that Dupuis ($1.4), Cooke ($1.2), Talbot ($1), Kennedy ($750), Godard ($750) and you are at about $50 million without any legitimate top-six wingers (unless you consider Staal to be that guy). Take Sykora back at the same price for the sake of argument and you basically have ~$5 for three more forwards, preferably one of them being a top-six. That\'s with no extras in the lineup.

So, yeah, its going to be a tight squeeze. As a Pens fan, I\'m hoping Staal is dealt, this team with their window and cap situation simply can\'t afford to play a third-line center $4 -- its just a luxury they can\'t have. My read on Shero thus far tells me that he will resign Staal though. A mistake in my opinion. Staal will develop nicely over the next 2-3 years, but, tying that money up in Staal basically kills those years in terms of true Stanley Cup Contender seasons (barring a great deadline deal, or the rapid development of a cheap talent from within -- there aren\'t many options outside of Caputi).

Well you have certainly explained yourself thoroughly here.

The talent too much from Pittsburgh\'s end. Arguably yes, but if I as a GM perceive Pittsburgh to be in a desparte situation, which, in my opinion they are in at this moment. Then I am going to ask for a high price to solve their problem of a missing established PP QB.

Losing a pending RFA as cap relief...sure it is, now and in the future (see Dustin Penner, and the Ducks still had cap issues). If the issue of Pittsburgh signing Staal is removed it could definitely be viewed as cap relief, whether that is in the best interests of the team is a different matter. If Staal\'s contract pushes a team right up against the cap then his contract could definitely be a detriment.

I think Staal is going to be very good but based on what I have seen to date, I do not think I am drastically undervaluing him. I would challenge Pittsburgh on that...if he so good why is he your checking line centre right now? What is full value for Staal anyways?

I think Staal being \"very good\" in the playoffs is overvaluing him on your part...they can find shut down players for a lot cheaper that 4-6 million per season. For what Staal will demand I expect more than 7 points (in a Cup Finals year!) and a -4, a minus 4? How much shutting down did he really do? See Max Talbot\'s stats from last season\'s playoffs: 9 pts, +4. For a 3rd line checker in the playoffs (like Staal was) that is very good to me.

Shanahan, no thank you...Well that is Pittsburgh\'s decision to make. The facts in the newspaper say the team badly misses Gonchar as a leader so either they have to grow up quickly or acquire outside help.

They do not have to sign Shanahan they could make a move a top-6 winger they like better than Satan, Fedotenko, Dupuis. If they got back a Ponikarovsky or Antropov that too could be better than those three. I originally had Antropov in the deal but he is a UFA next season and I figured Pittsburgh would want a player already signed for next season. There you go Antropov could a top-6 winger/centre. If you want Antropov in the deal, that works for me too.

Whitney be the better defenseman at some point, well inevidibly yes but he is not the better defenseman right now, and Pittsburgh is having problems right now. If Pittsburgh wants help right now, they have to pay the price with future. If the deal works out to be lateral in the long term then that is a win for Pittsburgh.

We will see what happens with Staal, but if Pittsburgh wants a top-end winger for Crosby tying up big money in Staal as a 3rd-line centre or will not help. And I see no indication that Pittsburgh is going to transition Staal to wing, they tried him there earlier in the season. He is happier at centre and Pittsburgh thinks he plays better as a centre. So unless Malkin becomes Crosby\'s full-time winger there is no ideal fit for Staal in the top-6.

I think I agree with a lot of your feelings on Staal. I think Staal should turn into a capable second line center if he refines his offensive game a bit. The problem for the Penguins is that I think he\'s a good 2-3 years away from being a capable 70 point player. The Pens\' window should be right now. With their cap situation, like you said, tying up a third-line center for $4 million is just not something that makes sense.

That being said, Jordan Staal scored 29 goals as an 18 year old player, and, although his production has dropped/plateaued, what you are paying for in the deal is potential. As far as what amounts to fair value, I have been saying for months (before Sundin signed in Vancouver), I wanted the Pens to trade Staal to Vancouver for Michael Grabner and Mason Raymond. So, I consider that to be the type of trade for the Pens that would be 1) realistic and 2) fair. That\'s a different type of deal than your proposal, but, I think thats the kind of deal the Pens would be looking for -- trying to get some long-term options on the wings. They are really barren of any sure-fire top-six talent. Grabner and Raymond would instantly be the best two wingers in the system and would compliment a guy like Caputi well down the line.

Maybe I don\'t see Poni enough, but, I honestly don\'t think he\'s a huge upgrade over a Sykora or Fedotenko level player. His contract is pretty cap friendly for one more year, but, he doesn\'t offer that long-term solution in my opinion. He\'s a middling top-six who will likely top out at 60 points, in my opinion anyway.

Staal and/or Goligoski I feel have to be dealt to address the shortage of talent on the wings. It has to be a long-term deal, though. This team returns the same core group next year, and, should be competetive for another 5 years with the players they have signed over that time frame. Don\'t force a trade to get out of one losing streak in this season in a way that would cost the team down the line. If they deal Staal and Whitney and the only winger singed after this season that they get is Ponikarovsky, in 2010/2011, they have nothing from that deal (unless resigned) and their two most valuable trade chips (Staal and one of Whitney/Goli) are gone. Any deal involving both chips must return a quality young winger or two.

[lanky]

SuperOne wrote:

But whoever, if anyone, Pittsburgh acquired would not be playing with Gonchar for a few weeks anyways.

but remember too that GMs have to think a few weeks in advance... and a few years in advance (for that matter) when making decisions and trades.

[SuperOne]

repenttokyo wrote:

if he gets traded to toronto, I will myself trade him immediately.

Hey, whatever works best for you and your team.

[SuperOne]

Flyer Fan wrote:

SuperOne wrote:

Flyer Fan wrote:

SuperOne wrote:

jackalope wrote:

I had mentioned Trading Letang as more of a possibility, but I was not suggesting a swapping of Whitney/Letang in your proposed deal.

As you pointed out, that would not work due to salary constraints.

Okay. Letang being traded is certainly possible too.

Whitney\'s has been locked in for a few years, ...that and the fact that he\'s been given almost thirty minutes a night since his return, ...both seem to mean that the Pens view him as a key long term piece of the puzzle they\'re building.

They have Crosby, Malkin, Orpik, and Fleury locked up as well, ...Staal considering the draft pick used to get him, ...the flashes of physical dominance he\'s shown offensively and defensively, his offering a different skill set than Malkin or Crosby, ...and just as importantly, the fact that rightly or wrongly, ...his all around game makes him much cheaper to sign than he\'d be as a one dimensional guy with gaudy numbers, ...make him to me a guy the Pens will likely lock up in the 5-6 years and millions range (comparables would be the Flyers Richards/Carter deals)

Gonchar will be off the books after next season.

Letang and Goligoski are both going to need a few years to develop, ...but they\'re both pretty inexpensive, ...so it wouldn\'t make a lot sense for the Pens to move either of them unless they felt the need to plug a specific hole (like say a scoring winger), ...they\'ld have to be getting a significant talent back in return, ...and it would have to be inexpensive to boot, or it wouldnt make sense for them.

As it it is, ...the option of moving Staal to play wing on Malkin\'s line, or Malkin to play wing on Crosby\'s line will always be an easier and attratctive way to fill a hole there.

Additionally, looking at this from a player\'s standpoint, ...As long as the Penguins have Crosby and Malkin, ...Pittsburgh\'s always going to be an attractive destination for Free Agents, ...particularly scoring wingers coming off a poor/injury filled season that\'ll see an opportunity to sign a one year deal, put up some big numbers playing with Crosby and Malkin, and then cash in on a long term deal from somebody.

The Pens should be able to find guys like Satan, and Sykora willing to play for them fairly inexpensively every year if they wanted too, ...without having to commit to the long term, big money deals that a team like the Islanders would have to.

...well, just some thoughts anyway. ymmv.

Sure okay, thoughts are good.

Thanks. Some of my thoughts are better than others. B)

I noticed the ice time but I do not think high ice-time necessarily means a player is locked in as a core player and is untradable. The ice time has to go to somebody, which other D is going to get it on Pittsburgh?

So you\'re saying that you feel that the high ice time he\'s getting, and the absence of a reasonable alternative on the roster make him more likely to be traded??? :unsure:

But why would Pittsburgh want to resign Staal to 4, 5, 6 million per season unless he starts putting up gaudy numbers? I have seen the flashes and I truly believe in his talent but at this point I do not think Staal deserves anything close to the contract Richards got last season.

Pittsburgh would want to resign him for the same reason they wanted to draft him second overall, ...because they\'re smart enough to know that there\'s much more to his game than gaudy numbers, and that it takes more than gaudy numbers to win. Staal plays a power game, power forwards traditionally take longer to develop, he\'s actually well ahead of the traditional plot, and projects as one of the most dominant two way centers in the league, ...no he\'s not Crosby or Malkin, ...but he projects as better than Richards, ...why would the Pens want to give that up, and for what?

Gonchar off the books after next season....okay, but where are you going with that though? You don\'t think Pittsburgh would want to resign him?

Pittsburgh may very well wish to resign him, ...but he\'s an older guy now, who\'s yet to take a slap shot this year, ...how many years does he have left? How many elite seasons? Will he fully recover from this shoulder surgery, ...or how many mph will it rob from his shot? How much money will he want? Will the the KHL come calling? Will the Pens have to outbid the Rangers or Wings to keep him? What if he wants to play with Ovechkin?

...Wouldn\'t it be prudent, to hang onto the guy you have who projects and has already performed as a high end offensive defenseman? the guy you\'ve drafted, ...developed, and already signed to a fairly inexpensive longterm contract?

Letang, and Goligoski are both nice players to be sure, ...but if you gave every GM in the league the choice of taking Whitney, Letang, or Goligoski... It\'d probably be very close to unanimous for Whitney (Tampa, or the Islanders may disagree :lol: )

If Letang or Goligoski were to somehow develop spectacularly, ...and evolve into, or project to be even a little bit better players than Whitney( an opinion which I\'ve yet to see anyone express), ...the fact that they\'re not locked into long term deals would still make them the more logical choices to be traded if a need arose.

Option of moving Staal to Malkin\'s wing or Malkin to Crosby\'s wing...that is okay with me but Pittsburgh does not seem to think so, I don\'t see how Staal has not locked into the top-6 ahead of Dupuis or Fedotenko and maybe even Satan. Even considering their recent struggles and lack of high-end wingers, Staal has been locked onto the 3rd line. That suggests to me, that right now Pittsburgh does not view Staal as a top-6 option. And the 3rd line would is a waste of Staal\'s talent and would be a waste of Pittsburgh\'s money.

Don\'t forget, Staal has already had a thirty goal season playing LW on Malkin\'s line, ...what I mean is, he\'s already proven that he can at least match the production they\'re getting out of guys like Satan, and Sykora, ...but they\'ve been able to find guys to play on the wing with Crosby and Malkin (though yeah, Fedotenko seems to be looking like a mistake, ...and Satan should have been able to do more too) ...but they feel Staal has a real good chance of developing into a dominant center, physically, offensively, and defensively. (Therrien\'s a dunderhead, but I give him credit for trying to look out for what\'s best for the kid and the organization long term, ...especially now when they\'re struggling.)

Crosby and Malkin make Pittsburgh an attractive destination for wingers...generally I agree, it won\'t always work though. See Marian Hossa. Chemistry does count too though , some wingers just wouldn\'t fit.

Yanno speaking of Hossa, ...I\'ve always wondered how much (if any) Therrien\'s unpopularity with the players factored into Hossa\'s decision. I know he said he went to Detroit because he wanted to win a cup, ...but considering that the Pens were the team they played in the finals, ...you could make an argument that the Pens offered just as good a chance.)

Anyhow, ...It\'s been nice talking hockey with ya! welcome aboard!

It has been nice talking hockey with you too. Thank you for the kind words Flyer Fan.

No I am just saying the best option a team has on defense will automatically get the most ice time amongst defensemen, regardless of age, length of contract etc. The primary factor for Whitney being included in my deal is his salary, not because I like him more or less than any other Pittsburgh defenseman.

Sure it takes more than Gaudy numbers to win. But what does Staal bring to the table right now that is so invaluable? Considering where they drafted him, I think Pittsburgh is looking for a lot more than a 3rd line checker. I would expect a highly skilled forward to be versatile enough to play any forward position, especially if it is in the best interests of the team...maybe that is what Therrien is talking about when he says it is about the team not the individual, maybe Staal is not so big on playing wing.

Absolutely power forwards traditionally take longer to develop but how does Staal becoming a dominant two-way centre in 2-3 years help them now? I mean Pittsburgh just got skunked again. The key word you are using is \"projects\". I will take Richards any day over waiting for Staal\'s potential to bear fruit no matter how big Staal is...Richards is better than a point per game player already, a two-way player and heart and soul leader. Joe Sakic is no power forward but that did not stop him from having a magnificent career.

Your questions on Gonchar are very good ones. I do not automatically think age is a hinderance. But you would have a PP heir in Kaberle already. IF trading Whitney significantly helps the team now and does not hurt them in the future is it not smart to do that? They will have plenty of time to replace Whitney. How is Pittsburgh going to spontaneously just turn things around with the coach and players they have right now?

Yes Tampa especially has their own special way of doing things, well the Islanders too. But yes I imagine most GMs around the league would want Whitney over Goligoski or Letang...but if GMs really are only interested in acquiring Whitney from Pittsburgh\'s D, then guess who Pittsburgh has to give up to complete a trade.

Letang and Goligoski not locked into long-term deals make them the more logical choices to be traded...maybe, I suppose that depends on what the other GM wants. What could Letang or Goligoski bring Pittsburgh via trade compared to what Whitney could bring Pittsburgh via trade? Maybe the other GM is not interested in Letang or Goligoski and want Whitney because he is signed. Pittsburgh could certainly sign each of Letang and Goligoski long-term for less than Whitney\'s $4 M per season.

Staal put up that many goals in his rookie season as a winger...so why is he not a winger now? Shouldn\'t he be having an even better season now in his third year, it is not like there is no room on the wing for him. They have been able to find wingers that can play with Malkin and Crosby...other than Sykora, I disgree there. Dupuis I could live with if the other two line members are stars (Crosby and Hossa) but not otherwise. Satan was okay for a while but his role was decreased, I am not sure what in the world Pittsburgh thought they were getting in Satan but apparently they figured out in the middle of the season that he is not quite what they want, but there still is time to get hot again. Fedotenko, I will not even bother with him.

Therrien looking out for the best interests of the Kid (Staal)...interesting, that crossed my mind a couple of months ago but I envisioned Staal eventually working his way into the top-6 and it just has not happened but then the season is not over yet. Seems to me like Pittsburgh/Therrien have not done a very good job at assigning roles. They mix and match so much that they rarely allow chemistry to develop.

Therrien factoring into Hossa\'s decision to leave...I am not sure, maybe. That may have been one of several factors, maybe there is a language barrier. I think the argument of Hossa winning the Cup with Detroit was far stronger than the argument of Hossa winning the Cup with Pittsburgh. Detroit already beat a Pitssburgh with Hossa, so if Hossa leaves for Detroit that logically makes Pittsburgh weaker and Detroit stronger. Since Detroit would be even stronger than they were when they won the Cup and Pittsburgh was going to be even weaker than when they lost, I say that is smart logic from Hossa.

Maybe Hossa saw the writing on the wall. Factor in Detroit lost (I think) absolutely nobody to free agency and that Roberts and Malone were heading to free agency, that made Hossa\'s decision to leave even easier.

Up, up and away!

[SuperOne]

lanky wrote:

SuperOne wrote:

But whoever, if anyone, Pittsburgh acquired would not be playing with Gonchar for a few weeks anyways.

but remember too that GMs have to think a few weeks in advance... and a few years in advance (for that matter) when making decisions and trades.

Yes of course, GMs have to, or at least they should

But if a GM\'s goal is to win the Cup in the current season then they have to think about the short-term as well. And right now Pittsburgh\'s short-term is looking pretty chilly. But hey they think they can turn things around...well okay if you say so, how did you get yourselves in this free fall in the first place?

And it\'s not like moving Whitney for Kaberle would hurt them long-term, Kaberle is only 30 years old. That gives them what another 5-8 years to find a replacement and they would still have Letang and Goligoski.

So I guess I will be taking some heat if this trade or something very similar to it does not happen, lol. Oh well, no problem.

[SuperOne]

Kraftster,

Real NHL, would you do this:

Staal
Whitney

for

Kovalchuk

[Kraftster]

If I were GM of the Pens, I would obviously have to consider that. I think its very hard to answer because of things that I don\'t know -- like what else is out there.

If you made it Staal + Goligoski + 2nd (or whatever round necessary to offset the Whitney/Goligoski swap) I\'d probably take it. I think Whitney is a better player than Goligoski. He also has a major size advantage. Whitney doesn\'t use that size, but, it should lead to better durability and a better defensive stick. I think Goligoski\'s next deal is going to be something like 3 years around $3 per. That means that Whitney will still be locked into his $4 million deal when Goligoski will be having his second go round at a new contract.

Obviously you have to give to get, but, I\'d rather trade Goligoski than Whitney if at all possible.

To me, the untouchable of the group is Kris Letang. People on this site are down on Letang a lot, but, that\'s because his fantasy value is probable the lowest of the three. Still, since we\'re talking hockey, give me Letang out of that group any day. Best skater, best defender, most physical. He may not be able to do all of the offensive heavy lifting by himself, but, as far as all-around player, he has the brightest future in my opinion.

[lanky]

Kraftster wrote:

To me, the untouchable of the group is Kris Letang. People on this site are down on Letang a lot, but, that\'s because his fantasy value is probable the lowest of the three. Still, since we\'re talking hockey, give me Letang out of that group any day. Best skater, best defender, most physical. He may not be able to do all of the offensive heavy lifting by himself, but, as far as all-around player, he has the brightest future in my opinion.

Completely agree. Letang will be amazing, he\'s the youngest of all of those discussed, and he\'s the only guy with any offensive potential currently on the penguins blue line that has a right handed shot (which is a small thing that\'s really pretty nice - especially on the powerplay).

I could definitely see Goligoski moved before letang, because he\'s definitely more one sided (much more of an offensive guy), whereas letang as you say is the whole package (leadership too).

As for the kovalchuk trade...

I really don\'t think kovalchuk is going anywhere... i just don\'t see it. I could understand why pittsburgh would want him, but I don\'t see why atlanta would want to trade him. Trading the pillar of your franchise is not the best way to rebuild. When rebuilding, you need something to build around. Kovalchuk is that guy. I think Atlanta can convince him to stay for a few years yet too because a lot of the youth down there in ATL is starting to look much better of late.

I mean Bryan Little this year? Wow. He\'s arrived. No doubt about it.

[istvantastic]

Hi,

If you don\'t mind me adding my thoughts...

One thing that has gone unmentioned is that Toronto isn\'t looking to absorb salary. I believe Burke is looking to shed it instead. I think younger prospects and good draft picks will be in order for anyone the Leafs are going to trade away.

If Pittsburgh continues to slump, I do believe Staal will be getting a new area code. And why not trade him to Toronto? But it won\'t be for Super\'s predicted package (though kudos for the cool idea).

[SuperOne]

Kraftster wrote:

If I were GM of the Pens, I would obviously have to consider that. I think its very hard to answer because of things that I don\'t know -- like what else is out there.

If you made it Staal + Goligoski + 2nd (or whatever round necessary to offset the Whitney/Goligoski swap) I\'d probably take it. I think Whitney is a better player than Goligoski. He also has a major size advantage. Whitney doesn\'t use that size, but, it should lead to better durability and a better defensive stick. I think Goligoski\'s next deal is going to be something like 3 years around $3 per. That means that Whitney will still be locked into his $4 million deal when Goligoski will be having his second go round at a new contract.

Obviously you have to give to get, but, I\'d rather trade Goligoski than Whitney if at all possible.

To me, the untouchable of the group is Kris Letang. People on this site are down on Letang a lot, but, that\'s because his fantasy value is probable the lowest of the three. Still, since we\'re talking hockey, give me Letang out of that group any day. Best skater, best defender, most physical. He may not be able to do all of the offensive heavy lifting by himself, but, as far as all-around player, he has the brightest future in my opinion.

Interesting thoughts.

The information I have read also suggested pretty much the same things you said, Whitney does not use his size and Letang is bettter all-around.

If Atlanta made that trade they would have a similar problem to Pittsburgh\'s two young centres (Little, Staal) and no big-time winger I suspect they would want a more established NHL defenseman than Goligoski though, they already seem to be stuck in constant rebuilding phase.

[SuperOne]

istvantastic wrote:

Hi,

If you don\'t mind me adding my thoughts...

One thing that has gone unmentioned is that Toronto isn\'t looking to absorb salary. I believe Burke is looking to shed it instead. I think younger prospects and good draft picks will be in order for anyone the Leafs are going to trade away.

If Pittsburgh continues to slump, I do believe Staal will be getting a new area code. And why not trade him to Toronto? But it won\'t be for Super\'s predicted package (though kudos for the cool idea).

Your thoughts are certainly welcome, the forum is here for thoughts. And nice of you to compliment my idea thank you.

Well Satan is in line to be a UFA so he would be gone anyways. And they have to take on some salary sometime, so why not the salary of two pretty good pieces to build around?

Well okay, you are not in favour of my package, so what is your preferred package?