Which keeper group?

[Seeds of Grapes]

Which keepers (if I drop Jarry, I will get a much lower ranked goalie):

Draiaitl
Vasilevsky
3rd round pick
Jarry
5th round pick
Fox
Hughes
[all other picks]
Ecklund
Rossi

OR

Draiaitl
Vasilevsky
3rd round pick
4th round pick
5th round pick
Fox
Hughes
[picks 8 to 11]
Barzal
[picks 13 to 19]
Bouchard
pick 21
Ecklund
Rossi

[thunderfist138]

Would you get better than barzal and bouch between picks 12-20?

Having your goalies locked means with your 4th you could find a player just as good or better than barzal or bouch, if it were me I’d keep the goalies.

[finnys_fanatsy]

Option 2 for me

[stevegamer]

Simplifying this: it's either:
Option 1: Jarry, a 12th and 20th or
Option 2: Barzal, Bouchard, and a 4th

If that's right I want Barzal, Bouchard and a 4th.

In drafts where keepers cost rounds, you want value keepers, and Jarry is about right on value.

[Seeds of Grapes]

Simplifying this: it's either:
Option 1: Jarry, a 12th and 20th or
Option 2: Barzal, Bouchard, and a 4th

If that's right I want Barzal, Bouchard and a 4th.

In drafts where keepers cost rounds, you want value keepers, and Jarry is about right on value.

I am actually leaning to option 1, and i agree with everything you say. However, one thing is missing from you argument, and that is positional scarcity. If I drop Jarry, I would likely be losing at least 25 points, if not significanltly more. I am guessing that the best I could hope to redraft would be a John Gibson, or a Ville Husso typ goalie, who in our league, would be worth about 55 points. Harry is an 80 pointer all day. If I drop Barzal or Boucher, I am pretty sure i could replace them.

What you are saying, and with which I do not disagree, is that by keeping them, I am making extra points, as they are protected so low.

So the question is, in a points only league, do I make up more points by keeping Barzal and Bouchard than I lose by keeping Jarry. Very hard to tell at this point, EXCEPT: I will be able to get back a Brazal and Bouchard type player, and I will not be able to get back a Jarry.


Appreciate the comment!

[Bubba55]

It sounds like you answered your own question pretty much. Like a lot of leagues goalies are gold so I get not wanting to move Jarry. I also agree that at least in theory you should come close to replacing Barzal and Bouchard. I'll take your word for it but it seems to me that Barzal and Bouchard will individually and in total bring you a lot of points. Tough call.

[stevegamer]

I am actually leaning to option 1, and i agree with everything you say. However, one thing is missing from you argument, and that is positional scarcity. If I drop Jarry, I would likely be losing at least 25 points, if not significanltly more. I am guessing that the best I could hope to redraft would be a John Gibson, or a Ville Husso typ goalie, who in our league, would be worth about 55 points. Harry is an 80 pointer all day. If I drop Barzal or Boucher, I am pretty sure i could replace them.

What you are saying, and with which I do not disagree, is that by keeping them, I am making extra points, as they are protected so low.

So the question is, in a points only league, do I make up more points by keeping Barzal and Bouchard than I lose by keeping Jarry. Very hard to tell at this point, EXCEPT: I will be able to get back a Brazal and Bouchard type player, and I will not be able to get back a Jarry.


Appreciate the comment!

Glad to help. I agree that scarcity is important. I see the scarcity as top 26 G, top 104 F, and top 52 D score for teams. We can assume imperfect distribution, so it's not a simple as figuring Jarry versus #27 G and so on with Bouchard and Barzal. I'm pretty sure that all of these guys will fit into the top 26/52/104 assuming health. Of the 3, Jarry has the most health issues. I also feel that D is not quite as scarce as G, but we see serviceable G all the time from odd spots.

However, you have to also account for the multi-year value of picks. I'm uncertain if pick round increases, but Bouchard that cheap is a guy I'd want to be holding for a while.