The worst decision of the pandemic. Get ready for empty shelves!

[Loch]

If there was a real pandemic I could get behind mandates. But not this plandemic with a flu and a survival rate of 99+%.

Thats my honest thoughts about it.

I would have ratherhad a few extra deaths over the crippled society we now have.

What sort of number do you consider to be 'a few extra deaths'? A few hundred, a few thousand... 20,000.... 100,000? Not looking for thoughts on potential deaths from covid with or without mandates, just what you mean by 'a few'.

[GinFizz]

last few questions and answers have been civil. no mudslinging.

[Rylant]

last few questions and answers have been civil. no mudslinging.

Everyone is getting tired.

Rylant

[Stifler]

What sort of number do you consider to be 'a few extra deaths'? A few hundred, a few thousand... 20,000.... 100,000? Not looking for thoughts on potential deaths from covid with or without mandates, just what you mean by 'a few'.

Few million across the world in the 75 years old + category i dont see a problem with.

[BreadManPanarin]

What sort of number do you consider to be 'a few extra deaths'? A few hundred, a few thousand... 20,000.... 100,000? Not looking for thoughts on potential deaths from covid with or without mandates, just what you mean by 'a few'.

The best way to look at it is excess mortality, I think. It is difficult to accurately assess how many deaths occur due to covid because of many confounding variables, reporting bias, correlation not being causation, etc. but the global death rate per 1000 people has been around 7.5ish per year for a while now.

2018: 7.546
2019: 7.579 (+.44%)
2020: 7.612 (+.44%)
2021: TBD

We did not have a noticeably higher increase in the death rate in 2020 with Covid than we did in 2019 before Covid. This is a good thing, of course. The 2020 death rate was actually a bit lower than in 2015, for example, which is not what you'd intuitively expect when comparing a year that experienced a global pandemic to one that did not. We shall see what 2021 looks like. No clue when that data gets released.

If the death rate were to have drastically increased to, say, 9 or 10 per thousand then that would be quite concerning. But if it increased to 8 per thousand and we had 3 million more total deaths vs. the average of 60 million per year I'd say that's probably an acceptable trade-off for not doing all of the mandates and lockdowns and creating all of the mental illness and societal divide that have resulted. 3 million sounds like a lot, but it is basically a rounding error of the total human population (.038%), and we aren't talking about 3 million children losing 60-70 life years each, but statistically speaking mostly older people with multiple commorbities losing on average probably 1-10 life years each.

Obviously it is hard to say what would have happened if we handled things differently. People in favor of mandates will say we probably saved countless millions of lives by doing them, and people against mandates will say to look at other countries which didn't do mandates but still didn't end up with millions of extra deaths as a result.

[forumname]

The best way to look at it is excess mortality, I think. It is difficult to accurately assess how many deaths occur due to covid because of many confounding variables, reporting bias, correlation not being causation, etc. but the global death rate per 1000 people has been around 7.5ish per year for a while now.

2018: 7.546
2019: 7.579 (+.44%)
2020: 7.612 (+.44%)
2021: TBD

We did not have a noticeably higher increase in the death rate in 2020 with Covid than we did in 2019 before Covid. This is a good thing, of course. We shall see what 2021 looks like. No clue when that data gets released.

If the death rate were to have drastically increased to, say, 9 or 10 per thousand then that would be quite concerning. But if it increased to 8 per thousand and we had 3 million more total deaths vs. the average of 60 million per year I'd say that's probably an acceptable trade-off for not doing all of the mandates and lockdowns and creating all of the mental illness and societal divide that have resulted. Obviously it is hard to say what would have happened. People in favor of mandates will say we probably saved countless millions of lives by doing them, and people against mandates will say to look at other countries which didn't do mandates by still didn't end up with millions of extra deaths as a result.

I agree that overall death rate is a better way to look at it than trying to get accurate 'covid death' numbers.

For stifler and others, what about the effects of covid on society other than deaths? One of the biggest problems in a lot of countries isn't deaths, but the inability for hospitals to care for the sick. I can understand being "okay" with a certain # of elderly dying from something (I see it that way too - we can only do so much to protect the weak/old). One of the unfortunate things about covid though, is that it doesn't just strike people dead instantly. It makes people sick to a point that they need to stay in hospitals on expensive equipment for extended periods of time. This has ripple effects for non-covid cases (cancelled surgeries, people getting told to leave hospitals with conditions where they would otherwise be kept for observation, etc). How do you deal with this issue without any kind of restrictions or 'mandates'? Should we have just set up military tents for covid patients with some kind of lottery system for who gets what degree of equipment/care? I'm not even saying that's a bad idea, but for those shouting "NO MANDATES" - what would your plan be?

[Loch]

The best way to look at it is excess mortality, I think. It is difficult to accurately assess how many deaths occur due to covid because of many confounding variables, reporting bias, correlation not being causation, etc. but the global death rate per 1000 people has been around 7.5ish per year for a while now.

2018: 7.546
2019: 7.579 (+.44%)
2020: 7.612 (+.44%)
2021: TBD

We did not have a noticeably higher increase in the death rate in 2020 with Covid than we did in 2019 before Covid. This is a good thing, of course. The 2020 death rate was actually a bit lower than in 2015, for example, which is not what you'd intuitively expect when comparing a year that experienced a global pandemic to one that did not. We shall see what 2021 looks like. No clue when that data gets released.

If the death rate were to have drastically increased to, say, 9 or 10 per thousand then that would be quite concerning. But if it increased to 8 per thousand and we had 3 million more total deaths vs. the average of 60 million per year I'd say that's probably an acceptable trade-off for not doing all of the mandates and lockdowns and creating all of the mental illness and societal divide that have resulted. 3 million sounds like a lot, but it is basically a rounding error of the total human population (.038%), and we aren't talking about 3 million children losing 60-70 life years each, but statistically speaking mostly older people with multiple commorbities losing on average probably 1-10 life years each.

Obviously it is hard to say what would have happened if we handled things differently. People in favor of mandates will say we probably saved countless millions of lives by doing them, and people against mandates will say to look at other countries which didn't do mandates but still didn't end up with millions of extra deaths as a result.

This is an interesting example of time scale and statistics. The relatively small increases in death rate you note seem pretty good, and it is definitely lower than 2015, and way lower than 1990. But it is also worth noting that that death rate declined every year from 1990 to 2018. Every. Single. Year. (this actually applies all the way back to 1950). Every year since 2019 this death rate has gone up. That's kind of a switch, right? To me that suggests that there may be an impact on mortality from the current pandemic (and yes, I know correlation is not causation). And there have been drops in some of the other more common causes of death so theoretically the rate should have continued to decline, one would think.

The other problem is that the death statistics on Covid are going to be hard to peg... early on there was no reliable testing and less well developed countries don't have the resources to track things so some just won't ever be assessed. Official deaths are at just under 6mil, noted left wing publication, The Economist, has excess death estimates of 14 to 23 mil. It is not something we will ever have definitive data on (unfortunately).
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...aths-estimates

[BreadManPanarin]

This is an interesting example of time scale and statistics. The relatively small increases in death rate you note seem pretty good, and it is definitely lower than 2015, and way lower than 1990. But it is also worth noting that that death rate declined every year from 1990 to 2018. Every. Single. Year. (this actually applies all the way back to 1950). Every year since 2019 this death rate has gone up. That's kind of a switch, right? To me that suggests that there may be an impact on mortality from the current pandemic (and yes, I know correlation is not causation). And there have been drops in some of the other more common causes of death so theoretically the rate should have continued to decline, one would think.

The other problem is that the death statistics on Covid are going to be hard to peg... early on there was no reliable testing and less well developed countries don't have the resources to track things so some just won't ever be assessed. Official deaths are at just under 6mil, noted left wing publication, The Economist, has excess death estimates of 14 to 23 mil. It is not something we will ever have definitive data on (unfortunately).
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...aths-estimates

Well, in fairness the death rate went up from 2018 to 2019 despite Covid 19 not starting in China until December 12, 2019 and not spreading worldwide until well into 2020, so it is safe to say that the trend of death rate going down was already broken without any effect from Covid. It went up by the same amount from 2019 to 2020, so it seems like a continuation of the trend established in 2019 rather than an escalation. 2021's data should be interesting, and maybe we'll see a noticeable acceleration or maybe not.

The fact that the data is so unclear is a very good thing because it shows how mild Covid 19 is as pandemics go. During the Spanish Flu or smallpox for example it would have been absolutely beyond any reasonable doubt that the death rate was significantly increased. There just wouldn't be any reason to debate it, whereas with Covid 19 it is fairly easy to debate either side because the data is as clear as mud. That's why I tend to go with the "let everyone do whatever they feel is best" approach personally rather than the "let the state decide what is best for everyone" approach.

[Loch]

Well, in fairness the death rate went up from 2018 to 2019 despite Covid 19 not starting in China until December 12, 2019 and not spreading worldwide until well into 2020, so it is safe to say that the trend of death rate going down was already broken without any effect from Covid. It went up by the same amount from 2019 to 2020, so it seems like a continuation of the trend established in 2019 rather than an escalation. 2021's data should be interesting, and maybe we'll see a noticeable acceleration or maybe not.

The fact that the data is so unclear is a very good thing because it shows how mild Covid 19 is as pandemics go. During the Spanish Flu or smallpox for example it would have been absolutely beyond any reasonable doubt that the death rate was significantly increased. There just wouldn't be any reason to debate it, whereas with Covid 19 it is fairly easy to debate either side because the data is as clear as mud. That's why I tend to go with the "let everyone do whatever they feel is best" approach personally rather than the "let the state decide what is best for everyone" approach.

Yes, it ticked up in 2019, not sure what the explanation is or if it was the start of a trend (or if there was some other confounding factor)... as I say, complicated stuff.

One note I would make regarding Covid vs Spanish Flu is regarding the developments in between:
Spanish Flu 1918-1920
Pen-icillin - 1928 the go to for pneumonia, which leads to more than a few covid induced deaths
Steriods (therapeutic) 1930s - kind of useful
Ventilator - 1940s also pretty useful for stopping people dying during Covid
Anti-virals - 1960s these are also useful
(and also, vaccines)

So I find it a little stark when people say this isn't a real pandemic like the Spanish Flu when basically every single life-saving resource we have didn't exist then.

[BreadManPanarin]

I find it a little stark when people say this isn't a real pandemic like the Spanish Flu when basically every single life-saving resource we have didn't exist then.

That's a fair point, of course. I have no clue how Spanish Flu would have affected us today with our modern technology. Maybe pandemics in general aren't capable of creating such huge death rates anymore, but somehow I doubt it. Mother nature is pretty darn vicious and I will never underestimate it.

[Loch]

That's a fair point, of course. I have no clue how Spanish Flu would have affected us today with our modern technology. Maybe pandemics in general aren't capable of creating such huge death rates anymore, but somehow I doubt it. Mother nature is pretty darn vicious and I will never underestimate it.

Amen to that... mother nature can really drop the hammer.

MERS was a coronavirus (like Covid) but rolled in with a 34% fatality rate... imagine that with an Omicron transmission rate, we'd be (to use the technical term) hella screwed.

[Invictus]

Our population is more than three times as large and more dense than in 1918 which helps aid in transmission. Our world is a lot more mobile too - area isolation not as easy.

Just to add some more factors to think about

[Loch]

Our population is more than three times as large and more dense than in 1918 which helps aid in transmission. Our world is a lot more mobile too - area isolation not as easy.

Just to add some more factors to think about

Indeed, with modern populations and travel (and minus modern medicine) the Spanish Flu would have a field day... though modern research suggests a death rate of 2% to 3% for Spanish Flu... Covid-19 is at what, around 1%, WITH the benefits of modern medicine.... the argument goes both ways. (our population also includes a lot more of the elderly, though Spanish flu seemed to kill younger... that sort of back and forth can go on quite a bit, but I would still suggest that there is not the vast dissimilarity between Spanish Flu and Covid that people think)

[2014olympicgold]

For me it would be capacity of hospitals. Not to mention I don't think I would have forced health care workers to get vaccinated or lose their jobs. We need more healthcare workers not less.

- - - Updated - - -



Can I be disappointed about both or do I have to pick? Enforcing one group and not enforcing another seems silly.

My point is both have the same rules in regards to masks. Enforcement of the rules is then what you're upset with.

Personally kids are gross and I feel terrible for any younger aged teacher that needs to tell a kid to put on a mask because under it the kids dripping with snot or drool lol. Enforcement at some schools (friends who are teachers) is questionable too, but that's in terms of telling a kid he shouldn't be sharing his crayons, or hugging his friends when we were at the height of COVID (2021? pre-omicron). Masking in schools has never been 100%, but better than what happened at the SB.


My point is, enforcement of masking, social distancing, general COVID rules have always been weak. And in schools is no different. But when you have 1 "enforcer" per 20-30 kids it's easier to enforce them. That would equivalent to 2,334-3,500 'enforcers' for the Superbowl. Rambled a bit but yeahhhh

[2014olympicgold]

In his submission to get Pat King released, the defence lawyer mentioned the COVID risk in jail for King is a lot higher than if he were out on bail and in the home of his surety.

I will note one of the goals of the protest was to try and end all COVID restrictions #cdnpoli