Musings about my first keeper team

[Dakkster]

I have a dilemma. I have my eighth and last pick in my league\'s prospect draft coming up and I don\'t know which player to go with. I basically have two main players to decide between, but I also have a list of backups.

First a bit about my team. I\'m in a 12 team h2h keeper league with 3 of each forward spot, 4 dmen spots and 3 goalie spots with some bench spots to go with that. We also have a 12 player farm team which we don\'t necessarily need to fill with prospects. We can send veterans down too. My team is one of two expansion teams this season, so I expect to finish in the bottom, which is why I\'m concentrating on the future. Hopefully I can get my hands on Tavares next year if all goes well

Anyway, I have a fairly solid team that\'s pretty young. I got some veterans in the expansion draft, but I plan on trading them to contenders as the season goes on. My younger core consists of players like Stephen Weiss, Hartnell, Lupul, Plekanec, Fisher, Comrie, Kronwall, Ehrhoff and Barker. My goaltending is almost worthless with Garon, Auld and Tellqvist.

I got some prospects in the expansion draft. Luc Bourdon, Justin Pogge, Jack Skille and Eric Fehr.

My draft picks so far in the draft have been (I had the 7th pick in every draft round):

1. Kristopher Letang
2. Andrew Cogliano
3. Jeff Tambellini (taken because there simply are no good LWs available)
4. Semen Varlamov (took him because I got snubbed on Bernier and Pavelec)
5. Jiri Tlusty
6. David Krejci (really pleased to get both Tlusty and Krejci)
7. Kris Russell (again, really pleased to get both Letang and Russell)

I was hoping to get Petr Kalus or Nikolai Kulemin, but they got taken before I had the chance to get them.

Now, to the issue. Enough back story

With my last pick I have my eyes set on either Michal Neuvirth or Francois Bouchard, both Washington prospects. The way I see it, either choice puts me in an interesting situation. If I take Neuvirth I\'ll have Washington\'s two prime goalie prospects. Sure, they\'re a couple of years away, but I have patience, especially if that pick means that I could have Washington\'s goalie situation locked up after Kolzig retires, and that is something that really appeals to me.

If I take Bouchard, I get the QMJHL scoring winner this past season and a sure-fire top six RW. It gets interesting since I already have Eric Fehr, but he\'s in a kind of \"shit or get off the pot\" situation, what with his back troubles and all. Again, this would be kind of a safe bet to lock up a future top sixer for Washington.

If I don\'t pick Neuvirth, I don\'t think anyone will take him and I can realistically drop someone during the season and pick him up before next years prospect draft. I\'d just have to come to some conclusion about who to drop. If I don\'t pick Bouchard, he could get snagged before the draft ends.

My backup list includes: Mikhail Grabovsky, Jan Mursak, Alex Picard, Simon Hjalmarsson and Pekka Rinne as a goalie. Should I go after one of them instead? If so, why?

So who do I pick?

Post edited by: sentium, at: 2007/09/05 16:39

[Nuckfan]

If I don\'t pick Neuvirth, I don\'t think anyone will take him and I can realistically drop someone during the season and pick him up before next years prospect draft. I\'d just have to come to some conclusion about who to drop. If I don\'t pick Bouchard, he could get snagged before the draft ends.

I think you pretty much answered your own question here. I think you have to go with Bouchard, 125 pts in the Q last year. He gives you so many more options for your situation (building from expansion), he could hit it off in Washington this/next/some other year and be a valuable asset to keep. He could show some sign of being a valuable player which makes him a valuable/ and tradeable asset to help upgrade a future trade negotiation.
Worst comes to worst

I don\'t think anyone will take him and I can realistically drop someone during the season and pick him up before next years prospect draft.

[digitalmonkey]

If you\'re set on it being one of those two then I\'d go with Bouchard. Is Steve Mason (Columbus goalie prospect available)?

[Dakkster]

Yeah, but from reading about him, it seems to me that he is farther away from the NHL and with less upside than Neuvirth.

[digitalmonkey]

I think Mason is actually closer to the NHL than Neuvirth and he\'s looked good in the Super Series.

[Dakkster]

Yeah, but then I\'d only have a 50/50 shot at getting Washington\'s future starter. The point of taking Neuvirth would be to maybe drop a bit in potential, but heighten my ability to secure a starting goaltender.

Besides, there are better alternatives available outside of Neuvirth and Mason. Jonas Enroth for example.

[Stannic]

digitalmonkey wrote:

I think Mason is actually closer to the NHL than Neuvirth and he\'s looked good in the Super Series.

Further to that, look what he did on the Knights (London) last year and he didn\'t even have any D in front of him.

I think Mason is underratted however I doubt that he will break into the NHL until 2009-10 or 10-11

That\'s my opinion though.

[hockeylifer]

Hello sentium \'et al\'

Personally, I would go with Bouchard. He has a chance to make the Capitals this year. I am not saying that he will but given his success in the QMJHL, and Washington\'s needs, he certainly has a chance.

Kolzig is not going anywhere anytime soon. Consider that Kolzig could play another couple years. The goaltending situation as it relates to Varlamov, Neuvirth, Mason, and their ranking on the team could change significantly. Washington could make a trade at anytime for another goaltender.

I am not suggesting that Nevirth and Mason aren\'t good goaltenders. Their circumstance in Washington could change, up or down, at any time.

Bouchard would appear to have the earlier opportunity with a lot of upside.

My thoughts.

[87Flyer]

i agree to to take bouchard. initially i liked the idea of neuvirth as i am attempting to do the same thing in one of my leagues, lock both down and just wait for them to fight it out. but if you think he will fly under the radar and you can get him later why not be a little greedy and get bouchard first then neuvirth after. from what his initial camp was like he was playing pretty darn good and who knows maybe he gets a shot this year, that will free up a prospect spot and you grab neuvirth. win-win and you can never go wrong in those situations.

[Dakkster]

Thanks for the responses, guys!

I went with Bouchard. I could pick up Neuvirth (or any other league-undrafted player) tomorrow when the league opens up for FA signings. The thing is that my roster is full right now and I\'d have to cut someone to make room for Neuvirth. That\'s why I\'m thinking about simply waiting for next year\'s draft to get him or possibly right before the roster freeze. It\'s highly unlikely that someone else will pick him up during the season.

Brent Seabrook somehow went undrafted (I was thinking about taking him instead of Russell), so I\'m going to release Ladislav Smid or Luc Bourdon and sign Seabrook as soon as I get the chance. I\'m having a hard time deciding between Smid or Bourdon. Both project to be two-way dmen and both have a big logjam of regular dmen in front of them on their respective depth charts. As it stands right now though, I\'m thinking that Bourdon is of higher value.

That would give me the following dmen (including farm team):

Sami Salo
Ed Jovanovski
Niklas Kronwall
Christian Ehrhoff
Brent Seabrook
Cam Barker
Kristopher Letang
Kris Russell
Luc Bourdon

Considering that the Johnsons were both taken before I even joined the league as an expansion team, I\'d say that I have to be quite happy with that young core. I plan on trading Salo and Jovocop this season. Preferably in deals to get better goaltending or better left wingers, which are my really weak points. I\'m pretty much ready to throw whatever it takes to get Tuukka Rask. I\'m thinking I can afford to package either of my young goalies (Pogge, Varlamov) with some vets or picks to try and pry him loose. If there\'s a goalie worth overspending for, he\'s the one.

Marc Edouard Vlasic is also available as a free agent. Does he have higher offensive upside than Bourdon?

[Enapai]

Check out some of the other threads for prospect goalie discussions. Rask is a good choice but I personally think that my first choice would be J. Bernier. By the time he plants himself in the starting role, the Kings are going to be a beast. I cannot necessarily say the same about Boston. Price in my mind is the next, but the cost to get him might be really high. (I think Price and Bernier are 1a and 1b respectively for goalie prospects). Rask part of a logjam to be considered at position 2.

I think you defense looks good, however Kornwall is injury plauged. Good job with your draft.

Post edited by: Enapai, at: 2007/09/05 18:52