theoretical first overall pick - who to choose

[mclarenf1]

here me out before you all say crosby, cuz that was my choice too until i thought about it.

i\'m stuck between crosby heatley or luongo/kipper/brodeur

it is a one year roto league and everything is scored equally and here are the categories:

G A PPP SHP +/- SOG GAA SV% W SHO

the reason i\'m stuck between heatley and crosby is that

although crosby outscores heatley by 25 points.
heatley gets dual eligibility (LW/RW) while crosby is only a C
heatley scores more goals and gets a respectable amount of assists which makes him more well rounded
PPP i see them being about equal
crosby does not play on the penalty kill
+/- not too big of a difference
heatley takes a lot more shots than crosby

and then the goalie question, i think i won\'t pick a goalie but goalies alone take up 4 categories so it could be smart to pick an elite goaltender in the first round. (although the 2nd round will still have some too)

what are your guys\' opinion?

[raffi]

I agree that these are all important things to consider when thinking about the #2 pick and following. However, Crosby is 19 years old and is such a special player that you\'d be nuts not to take him #1. If you\'re still not sold, another option would be to shop the #1 (Crosby) pick and get several draft picks in return so that you can get heatley or your goalie plus something else good in return.

edit: I just realized you\'re talking about a one-year league not a keeper league (sorry, brain cramp). In that case, I agree with you wholeheartedly. Even though Crosby will likely win the scoring title by 20+ points, you may still prefer to go with Heater or one of the goalies due to the reasons you outlined. I especially like the LW/RW dual eligibility of Heatley.

I still think it\'s a good idea to shop the pick for the #2 pick, though. You can at least get the #2 plus another decent pick in return, and still get your man.

Post edited by: raffi, at: 2007/09/03 04:13

[Shoeless]

That\'s right

Heatley has it over Crosby in G, +/-, SHP and shots - Crosby dominates Heatley in assists and PPP. Hossa is as close as Heatley is actually, just swapping +/- for SOG.

I would also not spurn Ovechkin in this analysis. And other than +/- and drawing even in PPP Lecavalier had better numbers in the rest of the stats than Heatley.

Interesting thinking for sure.

So now here is why you draft Crosby. He is what is called in Roto leagues a bend-over guy. When you let it be known that Crosby is available for the right price - other managers tend to bend over. Let\'s say you manage to trade Crosby and Giguere for Lecavalier and Luongo - would you be happy? to close to even for you? Let your imagination run - unless other guys in your league think like you do - Crosby makes them drool - use it against them.

The dual eligibility is nice but I think your 2nd tier guys can cover you nicely there - there are several who usually get dual eligibility - don\'t let that factor alone lock you in on Heatley - although I appreciate where you are coming from.

Post edited by: Shoeless, at: 2007/09/03 04:20

Post edited by: Shoeless, at: 2007/09/03 04:25

Post edited by: Shoeless, at: 2007/09/03 04:26

[mclarenf1]

thanks for your opinions guys, if i do get first pick i\'m gonna have a headache.

raffi, in my league unfortunately there aren\'t any trading of picks, but if there was that would be so awesome so i can spare myself the headache lol.

the problem with lecavalier is that hes a C and also theres still no definite answer to who st. louis will be paired up with. i drafted richards last year and got burnt due to that line change. and the reason i would take heatley over ovechkin is because ovechkin although with a good offensive core now, will still be a minus player (was -19 last season) while heatley has been pretty consistent with +/-.

but ultimately i think you\'ve sold me on crosby due to the fact that he is the best player available and he can get me more in return if i were to ever trade him, and his goal production is expected to go up.

its a 12 team pool so hopefully i get one of the top picks, last year in a 9 team pool i had last pick but i still ended up winning but that will be too difficult this year.

[Shoeless]

Yeah the +/- minus between Heatley and Ovechkin will be significant again - but please do also compare shots on goal - big gap in favor of the Ovenchicken - and playing with Nylander and with Backstrom, Poti and Kozlov coming in, I am guessing things are going to be pretty good for the Chicken man.

For sure pick Crosby.

[Fergie]

I would definetely pick Crosby. I agree with your point of view mclaren, but when comes times for you to pick again, there will still be some big goal scorers available.

Also, let the fellow guys on your pool know that Crosby is available for a trade. In one year league, some guys would give crazy offers for him such as Gaborik, Alfredsson + Kipper for Crosby.

[smoothfun]

i would take crosby and then decide as to whether i should trade him for a stud goalie and top 5 forward or see if he\'s going to take me to the top.

[dcarrbaby]

Crosby will have 150 pts this year, heatley 110 MAX. Heatley will lead the league in goals and does take more shots, but crosby will score more goals this year than last. He\'ll lead the league in assists and powerplay points, and will be up there in +/-. I see your dilemma but there is way way too much upside with sid. No brainer in my mind, Crosby

[mclarenf1]

thanks for all your help guys.

i think the league is going to switch into a H2H league instead of roto anymore.

the categories now seem to be:
G A +/- PPP SHP PIM possibly SOG

i think i\'m still going to go with crosby due to the heavy upside from what he can already produce and i can still find some PIM guzzlers later in the draft (ie Olli Jokinen or Kovalchuk) but with the new league format and categories do any of you guys think that theres a smarter choice to draft?

[Shoeless]

Same logic applies

[primeau25]

dude, in +/- heatley schools crosby. for a 1 year roto, id go with danny heatley. he\'ll be good this year and, although he won\'t put up as much points as sid, he\'ll have a +/- of at least 30....crosby around 10. they\'re even IMO.....up to you who you prefer.