Re: Fox for Kakko
KAKKO and its not even close. Fox is amazing. I think he will be a terrific player. But Kakko has the chance of being a dominant wing on a very high scoring club eventually. And while Fox has a fairly high offensive ceiling for a D, he is a) A Defensive player and they usually produce less in fantasy than comparative forwards. And B) On a team that is going to have 2-4 outstanding young D that will all deserve PP time. Without PP time, D's in fantasy usually take a big hit. And as good as Fox probably will be, he likely won't even be the best D on his team. Nils Lundqvist will probably be the top dog D for the Rangers in 3 years time or so. Then you still have prospects like Robertson, Reunanen and Miller that could demand some PP time. And you will have Schneider and Lindgren likely eating up minutes in general. And then Trouba is signed to a long term contract and for now, there is still DeAngelo who is only worth keeping for the Rangers if he gets a ton of PP time.
Now I certainly think DeAngelo will be gone to another team by then. And possibly, Trouba will be traded or something. But you are likely going to have 2-4 young D's fighting over PP time. And that hurts the fantasy appeal of likely ALL but the top D man and top PP QB, which I am almost certain will be Nils Lundqvist. As good as Fox looks, I think Nils Lundqvist is going to be as close to elite as possible, or possibly actually elite. I am talking like a stud. Chabot comes to mind. Maybe Weber or Burns even.... And he will get the lions share of the PP and the lions share of the D minutes. The rest of the D will be fighting over the rest of the minutes and PP.
AND..... Even if Kakko doesn't turn out as good as he should be, we are probably still talking about around a 65 point player. 65 point seasons for D men is usually about the ceiling. While 65 point seasons for Kakko will hopefully be the floor. Meaning he has the talent to potentially have some 80 or even 90+ point seasons if things work out.
MAYBE you can make an argument that Fox will get hits, pims or Blocks or something to add value. But even then i think Kakko will get some peripherals too, he should rack up SOG and likely some hits, maybe PIM. But in points just on a basic level, forwards will be more valuable. In this case, you are talking about a possible point per game player though. I don't think Fox has any hope of ever being a point per game player on a team where he got the lions share of min/PP. On a team where he has to contend with likely a BETTER D teammate, and multiple D's demanding PP time, and I would be shocked if Fox ever got more than 50-55 points in his best season. Once Nils shows up, MAYBE Nils could get like 70 point season in his prime, but even he likely won't get more than Kakko in their comparative best seasons. All though he is the Rangers only young D that I think will be capable of surpassing 55 points in an ideal season.
Just to summarize. Fox is no Quinn Hughes or Makar in terms of offensive potential. I'm not sure he's even Chabot. Fox likely won't ever get more than 50 points in a season and that will likely be his best season. I would be shocked if he ever reached 60 points in a season honestly. An average season for him might be 40-50 points once the Rangers have matured. And he likely won't even be the best D on his team and he likely won't QB PP1. Nils Lundqvist will likely QB PP1 and Fox will likely end up QBing PP2. And while Fox will get decent HIT and decent BLK, he probably won't dominate in either of those categories. And Fox will likely put up better numbers before Lundqvist arrives than after because he has less competition right now.
Kakko on the other hand, at minimum, will likely have a 60 point floor with potential to get 70, 80 or even 90 points any given season. He could be elite in SOG, and also add some hits and maybe some PIMS and BLKs and will likely have more PP points than the PP2 QB. And he will likely be one of the top 4 forwards on what will then be one of the top 3 offensive teams in the league. Along with Ziban, Panarin, hopefully Lafreniere and then Kakko.
So basically, would you trade Huberdeau or like Laine, or Guentzel or Forsberg or like either Tkachuk or even Kyle Connor for a D like Heiskanen, Werenski, Theodore or McAvoy? I wouldn't think anyone would make that kind of a deal. Yet essentially, that could be the equivalent in 3 years time of choosing Fox over Kakko right now. I would be shocked if the other team would even give you Kakko straight up for Fox. I would want Fox + a 1st round pick or another player/prospect if I were moving Kakko.
So yea...... Kakko by a million miles in fantasy. Nils Lundqvist would be the only Rangers D I would even consider moving a guy like Kakko for and it would still require something extra.
18 Team H2H Dynasty 9x4 cat. Roster 30 + 2 NA, 4 DL. 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,1G,11BN
Scoring cats are G, A, +\-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FW, HIT, BLK
W, GAA, SV%, SHO.
C: Crosby, Horvat, , E. Lindholm (RW), Aho, W. Johnston (RW), Bjugstad,
LW: Marchand, J. Benn, E. Kane, Fiala, Barbashev (C), Schwartz (C), Namestikov (C)
RW: M. Tkachuk (LW), JT Miller (C), Batherson, Hyman (LW), Frederic (C), Palmieri
D: J. Carlson, Josi, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Seider, Gudas, Ekman-Larsson,
G: Vasilievkiy, Shesterkin, Husso
NA: Mukhamadullin (D), I. Rosen (RW), D. .Levi (G)
LTIR: Landeskog (LW), Dach (C)