Whopper offer for my Huberdeau! Thoughts? (REP)

[kbro]

Hi! Thanks in advance for all responses. Roster and settings in signature (second team).

IÂ’ve been offered:

A. Vasilevskiy (G)
M. Tkachuk (LW/RW)
W. Karlsson (C)

for my...

J. Huberdeau (LW)
C. Giroux (C/LW/RW)
L. Ullmark (G)

Thoughts? HeÂ’s a Malkin owner, and IÂ’d really like to get Malkin in the conversation, but I think this is a nice buy low-ish opportunity for both Vasi and Tkachuk, and IÂ’m not 100% sure Giroux can keep this up.

Second question - IÂ’m thinking about floating the idea of cutting Giroux and Karlsson from the conversation (RW production is hard to come by), and see if he would just do Huberdeau and Ullmark for Tkachuk and Vasilevskiy... would you like that deal better? Is it a given that Giroux is worth more than W. Karlsson?

Thanks again! IÂ’m happy to rep all responses.

[anthonybeaty]

Even though Vas has not been very good this year, your league does not track goalie percentages (GAA, and SV%) so Vas' weakness this year isn't going to hurt you at all. So far he has no shutouts despite playing just under half the games he played last season. Last two seasons he had 6 and 8. By the numbers alone, he should have 2-4 already. I think the bolts will make the playoffs (which means they will win more in the remainder of the season), but I am not sure Vas will be the reason. His has been too inconsistent. For what it is worth, I traded Vas away last week and a few folks here thought I made a mistake.. By your scoring, Vas has 65 points and Ullmark 55. If Vas can start to get shutouts at the pace he did over the last two seasons, then you should expect 3-5 for the remainder of the year. If he does this, then I think he would be a huge upgrade over Ullmark (to the tune of 45+ points) since I think he will get 5+ more wins than him over the remainder of the year.

In terms of skaters:

Huberdeau > Tkachuk = Karlsson > Giroux

The question is how much better is Huberdeau than Tkachuk and Karlsson and how much better are they than Giroux.

Right now:

Huberdeau has 41 * 2 + 9 * .5 + 16 * .25 = 90.5 points
Tkachuk has 27 * 2 + -4 * .5 + 30 * .25 = 59.5 points
Karlsson has 28 * 2 + 4 * .5 + 14 * .25 = 61.5 points
Giroux has 22 * 2 + 5 * .5 + 18 * .25 = 51 points

My gut feel is that Huberdeau is a little ahead of where he should be, Giroux and Tkachuk are a little behind where they should be and Karlsson is about right. The point difference is about 21 points so for the remainder of the season, I would expect Huberdeau + Giroux to outpoint Tkachuk and Karlsson by 30 or so points.

This means that if Vas gets no shutouts for the rest of the season, then both sides would be within +- 5 points on this deal. If he gets 1, then you will break even or win on this deal. Any more than that, and you will win.

So it comes down to this. If there are certain players in the deal that you would prefer to own, then take that side. If you think Vas will get more than one shutout, then take his side. Otherwise hold steady.

[LuigiC173]

no, in such a deep league I am not a fan of unloading a 90-point forward and as other poster stated, your goalie cats make it so that having the elite tier goalies is not a must. Ullmark seeing a lot of starts in Buff so I would rather keep what you have.

[kbro]

Even though Vas has not been very good this year, your league does not track goalie percentages (GAA, and SV%) so Vas' weakness this year isn't going to hurt you at all. So far he has no shutouts despite playing just under half the games he played last season. Last two seasons he had 6 and 8. By the numbers alone, he should have 2-4 already. I think the bolts will make the playoffs (which means they will win more in the remainder of the season), but I am not sure Vas will be the reason. His has been too inconsistent. For what it is worth, I traded Vas away last week and a few folks here thought I made a mistake.. By your scoring, Vas has 65 points and Ullmark 55. If Vas can start to get shutouts at the pace he did over the last two seasons, then you should expect 3-5 for the remainder of the year. If he does this, then I think he would be a huge upgrade over Ullmark (to the tune of 45+ points) since I think he will get 5+ more wins than him over the remainder of the year.

In terms of skaters:

Huberdeau > Tkachuk = Karlsson > Giroux

The question is how much better is Huberdeau than Tkachuk and Karlsson and how much better are they than Giroux.

Right now:

Huberdeau has 41 * 2 + 9 * .5 + 16 * .25 = 90.5 points
Tkachuk has 27 * 2 + -4 * .5 + 30 * .25 = 59.5 points
Karlsson has 28 * 2 + 4 * .5 + 14 * .25 = 61.5 points
Giroux has 22 * 2 + 5 * .5 + 18 * .25 = 51 points

My gut feel is that Huberdeau is a little ahead of where he should be, Giroux and Tkachuk are a little behind where they should be and Karlsson is about right. The point difference is about 21 points so for the remainder of the season, I would expect Huberdeau + Giroux to outpoint Tkachuk and Karlsson by 30 or so points.

This means that if Vas gets no shutouts for the rest of the season, then both sides would be within +- 5 points on this deal. If he gets 1, then you will break even or win on this deal. Any more than that, and you will win.

So it comes down to this. If there are certain players in the deal that you would prefer to own, then take that side. If you think Vas will get more than one shutout, then take his side. Otherwise hold steady.

Thanks for the extremely thorough response! I definitely expect Vasilevskiy’s numbers to adjust upwards, and yes, in this format his percentages don’t hurt me. I just need a goaltender to get a solid majority of starts with a very good chance of getting wins. In a 20-team league, those are very hard to come by. And I only have 1 bench spot so I can’t platoon in the position.

I also expect Tkachuk’s numbers to adjust upwards (though Giroux may to some extent too), while Huberdeau might dip a little.

I could message the owner to see if he’d consider doing Malkin in the deal instead of Karlsson, but I highly doubt he would go for that.

no, in such a deep league I am not a fan of unloading a 90-point forward and as other poster stated, your goalie cats make it so that having the elite tier goalies is not a must. Ullmark seeing a lot of starts in Buff so I would rather keep what you have.

Hey, thanks for the response. I don’t think you’re reading that post the same way I am though. And while my format make elite tier goalies not necessary, it does make workhorse goalies who rack up wins and shutouts necessary. I’m on the fence!

[jimc21]

One more opinion... yes, Vas should trend up. But Hubs is having a great year and I don't see any reason to think he's going to dip significantly. I agree with LuigiC173 that unloading a 90-point guy is risky. And Giroux, though he's behind the curve right now, is your only other elite scoring F besides Marchand. Give them both up? No. I'd stay put. I guess I'm just not a huge Vas fan right now. If he was kilin' it, maybe. Lots of guys are trying to unload Vas right now. I did, and netted MacKinnon, which was a freakin' steal. I think if this owner gets Hubs for him, he's going to be pretty happy too. I would have been.