William Nylander contract situation

[blayze]

Then try to sign all three together in the following summer as a package deal

I'd have a better shot at sleeping with Kate Upton...

I think Willy's gone. Hopefully they get a decent defenseman in return.

[Kofax]

I think not signing him, and having him sit out a year would be a complete failure. IMO, this would mean he would never play for the leafs again, and his value will be significantly lower in a trade. What I don't understand is the following:

From the outside, sure, but in reality, it's hard to say. What if Nylander is just being completely unreasonable and not moving at all from $8 mil over 6 years or whatever and there are no reasonable trade offers? What do you do? We don't really know what's going on. It's a very tough situation.

Why don't they just sign him for a 1 year, $6M deal? Then try to sign all three together in the following summer as a package deal, have them for this years playoffs run at worst. You can always make the trade then, which he could be worth more.

It may come down to a 1 year deal, but if that's what it has to come to, that happens last minute after there's no more chance a long-term or bridge deal will happen. You have to remember, as stated above, that any 1 year deal is what your qualifying offer needs to be the following year, which muddies things.

[lucafen4]

Imagine if Nylander plays the first game, gets concussed and is out for the rest of the season. What are the odds that Nylander could get a seven-year, $50-million contract next summer if that happens? Probably not very good.

Dreger reported back in September that Nylander was asking for $8 million a year. If that is the case, then why settle for $6 million for one year?

because in the $8m scenario - it's a long term deal - eating into his UFA years. He wants a premium for those. A short term deal would be cheaper because if he blows up, he knows he'll make it up later on in a subsequent contract. In 2-3 years he's still a UFA. At that point, he probably wants 9m a year.. or more.

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As much as everyone says the Leafs need to move him for a Dman... one thing that needs to be noted - leafs are in the top six for goals against per game in the NHL... that D ain't so porous. the urgency is lessened.

[rataylor22]

Who exactly has decided $6 mil/year is fair market value? Sure, there's lots of good players on contracts like that, but that's before the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts shifted the market in a sense. I don't think Draisaitl at the time of his signing was an appreciably better player than Nylander, and the entire argument for his value was "I'm not X % worse of a player than him" in terms of contract value. McDavid is obviously a better player than Tavares. Is Nylander a $5m/yr worse player than Tavares? If Matthews signs between $11-12m/yr is Nylander a $5-6m/year player worse than Matthews? If Marner signs at $9-10/yr is Nylander a $3-4m/yr player worse than Marner? Is he a $2.5m/yr worse player than Draisaitl? Really hard to buy those arguments with how Toronto has set up their internal cap.

I remember back in the summer when the Swede and the American were going to take hometown discounts to stay in Toronto haha. What a notion.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Who exactly has decided $6 mil/year is fair market value? Sure, there's lots of good players on contracts like that, but that's before the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts shifted the market in a sense. I don't think Draisaitl at the time of his signing was an appreciably better player than Nylander, and the entire argument for his value was "I'm not X % worse of a player than him" in terms of contract value. McDavid is obviously a better player than Tavares. Is Nylander a $5m/yr worse player than Tavares? If Matthews signs between $11-12m/yr is Nylander a $5-6m/year player worse than Matthews? If Marner signs at $9-10/yr is Nylander a $3-4m/yr player worse than Marner? Is he a $2.5m/yr worse player than Draisaitl? Really hard to buy those arguments with how Toronto has set up their internal cap.

I remember back in the summer when the Swede and the American were going to take hometown discounts to stay in Toronto haha. What a notion.

But we can still hope Matthews takes hometown discount when he signs with Arizona in 2023.

[PenguinHunter]

But we can still hope Matthews takes hometown discount when he signs with Arizona in 2023.

Wouldn't that be something! Leafs better win a cup early in Tavares and Matthews playing days together.

[lucafen4]

Who exactly has decided $6 mil/year is fair market value? Sure, there's lots of good players on contracts like that, but that's before the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts shifted the market in a sense. I don't think Draisaitl at the time of his signing was an appreciably better player than Nylander, and the entire argument for his value was "I'm not X % worse of a player than him" in terms of contract value. McDavid is obviously a better player than Tavares. Is Nylander a $5m/yr worse player than Tavares? If Matthews signs between $11-12m/yr is Nylander a $5-6m/year player worse than Matthews? If Marner signs at $9-10/yr is Nylander a $3-4m/yr player worse than Marner? Is he a $2.5m/yr worse player than Draisaitl? Really hard to buy those arguments with how Toronto has set up their internal cap.

I remember back in the summer when the Swede and the American were going to take hometown discounts to stay in Toronto haha. What a notion.

Is Draisaitl the best comparison? I can toss back Pastrnak who signed for almost 2 less than Draisaitl to counter. An argument could be made he's a better player than Draisaitl. A lot believe Draisaitl was overpaid. If this is what Nylander is basing his value on... then Tor has more contracts, with similar players accepting much less to support them.

[2014olympicgold]

Nylander doesn't wanna be on the team, that's actually my thought right now. Finding a middle ground and getting a contract signed, or folding on his thinking realizing that if he wants to be a Leaf he's got to sign would have happened by now.

My thought is this is someone wanting to get paid the max he can, and knowing he can't get that in Toronto. It's a way to ask for a trade but not look like a dick to fans.

I've flopped back and forth on this subject, but this is my current thinking.

[rataylor22]

Is Draisaitl the best comparison? I can toss back Pastrnak who signed for almost 2 less than Draisaitl to counter. An argument could be made he's a better player than Draisaitl. A lot believe Draisaitl was overpaid. If this is what Nylander is basing his value on... then Tor has more contracts, with similar players accepting much less to support them.

Exactly. That's the whole point. What is the comparable? Pastrnak signed for 91% of the top contract on Boston. Draisaitl signed for 68% of the top contract on Edmonton. That puts Nylander's range at $7.48-$10.01m/yr. You have to account for cap inflation, team comparables, and market comparables, all of which imply $6m/yr on a long term deal isn't "fair market value" but rather a low ball. $8m/yr isn't even an "over ask", it actually falls within a reasonable range of comparables. If nothing else, a "meet in the middle" of $7m/yr is a bit of a team discount for Nylander, but reasonable. From an evidence-based perspective, saying Nylander is "to blame" because Dubas has offered "fair market value" is just false.

[rataylor22]

Nylander doesn't wanna be on the team, that's actually my thought right now. Finding a middle ground and getting a contract signed, or folding on his thinking realizing that if he wants to be a Leaf he's got to sign would have happened by now.

My thought is this is someone wanting to get paid the max he can, and knowing he can't get that in Toronto. It's a way to ask for a trade but not look like a dick to fans.

I've flopped back and forth on this subject, but this is my current thinking.

This implies it's only on the player to find the middle ground, saying Dubas is offering a middle ground and Nylander isn't accepting it. We don't know that.

[lucafen4]

Throwing out numbers means nothing.

Nylander's agent/dad says "look at Draisatll!!!"
Pridham says "It was a mistake / anomaly. Look at Pastrnak!"

or

Pridham/Dubas say "look at Pastrnak!!!"
Nylander's agent/dad says ""It was a mistake / anomaly. Look at Draisatl"

And around and around they go.
It doesn't matter which side is right either.

The Nylander camp is to blame because they've failed to recognize that even if their number is closer to realistic, they don't have the leverage to demand it.
And that's why he's unsigned.

There's more similar deals to Pasta to compare than there is Draisaitl's -- that's what makes Drais an anomaly

[rataylor22]

There's more similar deals to Pasta to compare than there is Draisaitl's -- that's what makes Drais an anomaly

Sure. But the rumored Leafs offer is below Pasta, which only means its silly to call it "market value".

As for the leverage thing, it's simply naivety to think Nylander doesn't have any leverage in TML's best cup window year.

[rataylor22]

3rd overall in the entire NHL standings.
3rd overall in goals for.

As for the naivety thing...
If Nylander really had any leverage, he'd have a contract right now.

18 game sample sizes are fun.

You could just as easily say if he didn't have any leverage he'd have signed by now. Narratives are easy to create both ways when you don't have anything to stand on.

[Axeman33]

The Leafs are a better team with him.

I still think he should sign a bridge deal for 2 yrs.

[Axeman33]

Remember....




Is that the sweet sound of arrogance or confidence. I always get those confused.