[REP] Best chance for rebound / breakout?

[cheese_cake]

Hello guys!

I need to decide on my bubble keepers for a keeper league counting points (5), shots (0.2) and +/- (1). (12 team, 12 keepers out of 25 men rosters, start 9F, 4D, 2G each week). Position notwithstanding, who would you keep between:
Hoffman
Atkinson
Pavelski
RNH
E. Staal

I can only keep 2 of these 5. I see all of them as possible bets for 65pts with healthy shots volume (except RNH) and positive +/- ratio. Who do you prefer?

Thx for the help!

[mounD]

Atkinson and Pavelski for me, though I also considered Hoffman and Staal for their combined points/shots potential. Atkinson is probably the most prolific bulk shooter of the bunch, and he’s got a top line / PP1 spot locked down for the foreseeable future. He was honestly a pretty easy choice given his age, role, trajectory, and past production.

Now is where things get a bit tricky as Pavelski, Hoffman, and Staal are all similarly alluring players with some downside to be explored. Pavelski should easily hold down a top line / PP1 spot, and despite his age he is remarkably consistent both in terms of games played and production over the past several seasons. To me, he represents the safest choice for your second keeper.

As for Hoffman, I’m projecting him for second line with Trocheck / PP1 duties, but there is some risk involved here as he could easily be left off the PP1 in favor of Dadonov, for example. He’s still relatively young compared to the other options (aside from Atkinson) and does carry the ‘upside’ factor playing alongside a very talented pivot in either Trocheck or maybe even Barkov. He’s likely going to reprise his role as a bulk shooter as well, but I think I still have to give the edge to Pavelski because his role as a top option is much more secure AND he’s been remarkably consistent and healthy.

As for Staal, he’s obviously experiencing a career renaissance on Minnesota’s top line / PP1; however, Minny seems to spread out the ice time rather evenly among their top6 forwards. Last year I think his ATOI was 17 minutes and change with prominent minutes on the powerplay, which will probably end up similar this season. Just looking at role, I think players like Atkinson and Pavelski will receive more ice-time and in more prominently featured offensive deployment. Of course, it’s very likely again that Mikko Koivu’s line will be given heavy D-zone starts, freeing up Staal for the cushy starts, but I think the combination of his age / relative lack of success before 17-18 in his final years in CAR and then in NYR / his lower overall ice time make the uncertainty surrounding Staal greater than some other options on your list.

Ultimately, I think all these guys I‘ve discussed are solid options in your format providing a great blend of points upside and shots — but if it were up to me I?d be keeping Atkinson and Pavelski.

Cheers

[RizzeeDizzee]

Atkinson had essentially a 75 point season already, if you count the first half of 2016-17 and the second half of 2017-18. At worst you're getting a player who'll be red hot for stretches of time, and at best he finds a way to be consistent throughout the entire season and give you 75+. Second choice for me would be Hoffman - solid already, but now with a chip on his shoulder and on a team eager to see him succeed.

RNH and Staal are intriguing, but RNH is too line-dependent and Staal might be deemphasized somewhat if the new GM focuses more on the team's younger stars.

Pavelski I see as a declining player. Still good, but no longer great, and getting worse by the year.

[cheese_cake]

Thanks for the inputs, I have the same read of Atkinson's situation.

Even if I asked for opinions without positional requirements, I might be inclined to prefer keeping a LW to end my selection. Would that information provide decisive support for Hoffman or even RNH over Staal and Pavelski?

[Dave Muir]

For me, I prefer Pavelski and Hoffman. I lost my faith in both RNH and Staal but I could be wrong! Give Hoffman a good center like Trocheck or Barkov and PP1 time and he will deliver near ppg for sure. His shot is so quick and accurate.

[Bstbullies]

Another vote for Atkinson and Pavs. Staal is my close 3rd. Hoffman is a huge question mark on where he'll fit in and with all the karlsson stuff ongoing, he's a cancer to me. Not saying the risk/reward isn't there with him. RNH is consistent to be RNH and I don't see that changing.

[FantasyKing]

I'm liking RNH value next year as McDavid's LW winger, although i don't think ill take him over a combo of Hoffman and Atkinson. Staal/Pavelski are not bad picks either but they are also reaching the declining stages of their career where they can fall off at any moment. Hoffman is in way better situation in FLA i think he can seriously break out next year , therefore i think Hoffman and Atkinson are your best picks.

[BranDOOM]

Pavelski and Atkinson for the safer bet. I like the Nuge this year. He looked great alongside McDavid to end the season. Line dependant? Sure. I like the risk there though, if he sticks he will have a great season.

[cheese_cake]

Thanks everyone! I plan to keep Atkinson and Hoffman. I rep'ed where I could !

[HabsBlood]

Really surprised to see the lack of support for RNH in a thread like this. He could pot 70 on McDavid's wing based on the chemistry they found. He's legitimately their only true top-six winger at this point. Lucic has declined but will still get in the mix. Otherwise they'll be looking to guys like Yamamoto and Rattie to hopefully fill things out.

Yeah, he's line dependent, but playing with Draisaitl is a nice fallback position. Strome has been doing fine as the 3C and frankly it just makes so much sense to tie Nuge to McDavid. He can also jump in and help McDavid with some faceoffs, which is pretty critical considering 97's performance in the dot.

The McDavid chemistry wasn't tested/discovered until late in the season and Nuge finished with a 63-point/32-goal pace last season. Is it really a stretch to think he can plug 70 playing with Connor full time?

[cheese_cake]

Really surprised to see the lack of support for RNH in a thread like this. He could pot 70 on McDavid's wing based on the chemistry they found. He's legitimately their only true top-six winger at this point. Lucic has declined but will still get in the mix. Otherwise they'll be looking to guys like Yamamoto and Rattie to hopefully fill things out.

Yeah, he's line dependent, but playing with Draisaitl is a nice fallback position. Strome has been doing fine as the 3C and frankly it just makes so much sense to tie Nuge to McDavid. He can also jump in and help McDavid with some faceoffs, which is pretty critical considering 97's performance in the dot.

The McDavid chemistry wasn't tested/discovered until late in the season and Nuge finished with a 63-point/32-goal pace last season. Is it really a stretch to think he can plug 70 playing with Connor full time?

I see what you mean, all I read points to RNH flanking McD for a least a good portion of next season, but I'm afraid of the revolving doors of wingers from the past 2 years (namely the Oilers' desire to put Lucic back on top line in an attempt to at least augment his value on trade market). I feel like we've seen Hoffman's floor last season, which is kinda higher than RNH (and I think RNH deployment on SH is detrimental to his floor/ceiling) so I think I'll roll the dice on Hoffman and let someone reach for RNH. The upside is there for 70pts under the best circumstances but I probably won't be making this bet.

[B3tt3rMan]

E. Staal keeper 1.

Atkinson IF Panarin stays, RNH IF Panarin goes, which I would think should happen before too long or CLB will be in even more of a pickle.

Pavs is getting a little long in the tooth.
Hoffman is a bit of unknown due to his new team and surroundings, plus he's a douche so there is always a chance for locker room issues...

[bondon]

Maybe I'm out to lunch but I would consider this a pretty easy keep of Hoffman + Pavelski. Maybe Atkinson over Hoffman, but I think outside of Hoffman and Pavelski the rest of the guys are easier redrafts.

Mind you, the only thing that might give me some pause on Hoffman is that Florida's top two centers both like to shoot the puck if I'm not mistaken. That might be enough to sway me towards Atkinson.