Dispersal draft: Ellis or Dumba or go forward?

[Polecon]

For the team in my sig, I'm hurting on D and its killing my chances in this pool. We have a team folding with its roster dispersing, so I have an option to select Ellis and Dumba with my pick or i could pick a forward among Atkinson, Schenn, Kreider, Zibanejad or Teravainen (I can always use help on forward).

Is there enough value in Ellis or Dumba over the next three years, make it worthwhile to choose D over one of these 50-(or so) point forwards?

Further notes: there are two rounds, but the second round will require me t drop something off my keeper roster (so he'll have to be a better option than Bjorkstrand or Dvorak); anything left over after the second round goes back into the general draft later this September.

[The Comish]

BPA in this case. Atkinson would be my pick here. I think he's in a good situation and will repeat 60 points again this year.

[Belexus75]

i agree, you need to go with BPA, and for me this should be Zib, he will be #1 in NY and i would not be surprised to see 65-70 if he stays healthy.

[havanablast21]

BPA... is neither of those D

Atkinson, krieder or Zib for me. Likely in that order.

[Bstbullies]

I'm in agreeance with the others, BPA is the best way to go.

[Axeman33]

I have to agree with the consensus that you take the best player available and I think it's one of the forwards here in a points only format. My top two choices are Schenn and Atkinson.

[Polecon]

Thanks everyone for your comments. I ended it up packaging the pick and Coyle (who I was planning to drop) for Leddy, someone who i have been chasing for a while. The other GM took Teravainen over Atkinson, Z and Kreider. Surprised.

[Magicstew]

I still think i would have took Atkinson or Z over Leddy.

[Polecon]

I still think i would have took Atkinson or Z over Leddy.

I disagree with you there generally, I'm on the record elsewhere in this forum that I think Leddy is 50+ this sesason. But specific to this pool, the move reflects how difficult it is to get +45 defence and how much less cost it will be to trade for either Atkinson or Z during the season.

[Eskimo Brother]

I disagree with you there generally, I'm on the record elsewhere in this forum that I think Leddy is 50+ this sesason. But specific to this pool, the move reflects how difficult it is to get +45 defence and how much less cost it will be to trade for either Atkinson or Z during the season.

You know your pool best, so that's completely fair.
I would be on Magicstew's side though that I would have taken Atkinson, Coyle or even Ellis over Leddy.
Maybe I'm just a little biased against Islanders players though.

[Polecon]

You know your pool best, so that's completely fair.
I would be on Magicstew's side though that I would have taken Atkinson, Coyle or even Ellis over Leddy.
Maybe I'm just a little biased against Islanders players though.

Case in point, both Ellis and Dumba went ahead of Atkinson, Zibanejad, Schenn and Kreider by my fellow GMs

[Wonko]

I think Leddy does indeed come close to 50 this season. You know your league best. If a 48 point D man with middling peripherals is the most valuable player available to you, then you will have in fact taken the 'BPA'.

[Polecon]

To tie this one off, I ended up moving Bjorkstrand and a 4th rounder to the same GM for a later dispersal pick that got me Atkinson, so the tail of the tape was:

Leddy + the 7th dispersal pick (Atkinson) for Coyle, Bjorkstrand, the 4th dispersal pick (Teravainen) and the 35th pick in our summer draft

Not a home run, but a modest improvement

[Invictus]

You seem to have a lot of Optimism for Atkinson.. I think he falls short this year especially with Panarin incoming. 54pts

[Polecon]

You seem to have a lot of Optimism for Atkinson.. I think he falls short this year especially with Panarin incoming. 54pts

I'm less optimistic than the guide (ie not mid-60s), but I am swinging for a decent percentage that Atkinson repeats 60. This would need him to even his splits (last year they were 40/40, 41/21). The guide suggests this is partially explained by CBJ's PP disaster in the second half, which is what the addition of Panarin is meant to address I think. I guess I'm wondering why you are seeing a negative Panarin-effect? He's opposite wing and should be a net-add to a PP1.